Premier League · resolved market
Spread: Manchester United (-0.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x72c3bb0d3a1bdf77b01d9e95da74f3edd7a1fe4027d23a11cdf0103baa912db3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Manchester Unitedof Manchester United, Brighton
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,609
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,900
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,609 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7225…9c44backed Manchester United | 47c | 4,000$1,880 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,119.99 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ee…efcebacked Brighton | 53c | 3,962$2,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4dd…3c12backed Manchester United | 52c | 961.54$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$461.54 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Brighton | 48c | 958$461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$461.46 | 357 | 58%207 W · 150 L | +12.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ce0…8d6fbacked Brighton | 53c | 933.43$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.25 | 86 | 33.7%29 W · 57 L | -14.7wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xa429…792bbacked Brighton | 54c | 927.6$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cda…6e17backed Manchester United | 46c | 831.51$383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$448.97 | 94 | 50%47 W · 47 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x553b…f71cbacked Manchester United | 66c | 787.98$523 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.28 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd146…9bf0backed Brighton | 51c | 745.15$383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382.53 | 459 | 36.2%166 W · 293 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Manchester United | 50c | 660$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.82 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Manchester United | 46c | 433.42$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.05 | 218 | 53.2%116 W · 102 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2cc…55a0backed Brighton | 56c | 288$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.84 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffab…a290backed Brighton | 57c | 245.61$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked Brighton | 52c | 233.33$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.33 | 308 | 51.3%158 W · 150 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3864…857fbacked Manchester United | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.33 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa80…79ebbacked Manchester United | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Manchester United | 44c | 195$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.2 | 370 | 36.2%134 W · 236 L | -18.1wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d7…8b82backed Manchester United | 47c | 110$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.3 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +55%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xde91…f20abacked Manchester United | 45c | 108.67$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.77 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc62…a415backed Brighton | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbce1…11f8backed Manchester United | 51c | 98.57$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.57 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51d9…cb1abacked Brighton | 52c | 90$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.8 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -4.6wins | -0.18per pick | 49cpaid | -39%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x52af…7d46backed Manchester United | 54c | 80.56$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.06 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31bf…a612backed Manchester United | 48c | 55.13$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.67 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Manchester United | 45c | 44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.2 | 541 | 28.3%153 W · 388 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7baf…833bbacked Manchester United | 50c | 41.7$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.05 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd960…1adebacked Manchester United | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 159 | 49.7%79 W · 80 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x808b…48c8backed Manchester United | 50c | 22.04$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.04 | 27 | 70.4%19 W · 8 L | +3.8wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Manchester United (-0.5)this page
- Manchester United vs. Brighton: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Manchester United vs. Brighton: O/U 2.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.