Aston Villa vs. Wolves: O/U 2.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x629691c10c1110a9ee399a031fef9eba48a5146d67a8cbf205c3b3bd3fdf7fb2

Rebuilt 8 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Underof Over, Under
Resolved: Nov 30, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $40,551
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $41,475

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,551 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Premier League
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x204f…5e14backed Under	70c	18,011$12,518 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,492.83	6,117	45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L	-28.6wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-12.4%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x0d0f…a318backed Over	23c	9,998$2,250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,249.55	110	29.1%32 W · 78 L	-2.6wins	-0.02per pick	31cpaid	-18.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4133…5e70backed Over	54c	5,398$2,926 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,925.72	2,661	45.5%1,210 W · 1,451 L	-11.1wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-9.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf5d0…d9e8backed Over	54c	4,000$2,143 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,143.42	126	42.9%54 W · 72 L	-2.2wins	-0.02per pick	45cpaid	-12.9%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xec13…862bbacked Under	46c	3,333$1,533 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,799.82	26	34.6%9 W · 17 L	-1.6wins	-0.06per pick	41cpaid	-4.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0ba4…c08bbacked Under	47c	2,000$930 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,070	149	43%64 W · 85 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	+0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdebb…eedbbacked Over	57c	1,793$1,014 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,013.55	171	53.8%92 W · 79 L	+10.0wins	+0.06per pick	48cpaid	+16.6%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Under	47c	1,784$846 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$938.77	4,744	41.8%1,983 W · 2,761 L	+28.2wins	+0.01per pick	41cpaid	-14.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaf5d…7253backed Over	22c	1,662$367 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$367.17	30	30%9 W · 21 L	-0.9wins	-0.03per pick	33cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Over	55c	1,635$899 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$899.25	1,212	41.7%505 W · 707 L	-1.6wins	0.00per pick	42cpaid	-1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Under	45c	1,116$507 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$608.52	1,272	50.4%641 W · 631 L	-53.9wins	-0.04per pick	55cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xda35…ff0ebacked Over	55c	1,000$550 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$550	78	44.9%35 W · 43 L	-2.1wins	-0.03per pick	48cpaid	-2.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x775e…6541backed Over	23c	750$173 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$172.5	56	25%14 W · 42 L	-9.4wins	-0.17per pick	42cpaid	-50.4%equal weight	37-0.12 edge/pick
0xe550…2c8bbacked Over	55c	545.45$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	66	54.5%36 W · 30 L	+3.4wins	+0.05per pick	49cpaid	+8.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6d01…0ab1backed Under	45c	500$225 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$275	218	39.4%86 W · 132 L	-5.5wins	-0.03per pick	42cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8208…1742backed Over	22c	454.55$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	32	46.9%15 W · 17 L	-2.2wins	-0.07per pick	54cpaid	-12.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb113…8bc6backed Under	45c	444$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$244.2	215	48.8%105 W · 110 L	-5.8wins	-0.03per pick	52cpaid	-9.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x908a…ad16backed Over	54c	378.46$204 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$204.37	1,224	40%490 W · 734 L	-24.3wins	-0.02per pick	42cpaid	-15.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Under	45c	376.8$170 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$206.74	370	36.2%134 W · 236 L	-18.1wins	-0.05per pick	41cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x419b…6ea1backed Over	54c	370.37$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	103	43.7%45 W · 58 L	-8.8wins	-0.09per pick	52cpaid	-18.3%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3893…6e0cbacked Over	55c	363.64$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	22	40.9%9 W · 13 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	43cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Over	22c	361.43$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80.18	1,004	46.3%465 W · 539 L	+25.8wins	+0.03per pick	44cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x26ab…41c1backed Over	55c	200$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110	47	27.7%13 W · 34 L	-7.1wins	-0.15per pick	43cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0x45d1…7017backed Under	43c	168$72 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$95.76	53	47.2%25 W · 28 L	+1.3wins	+0.02per pick	45cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over	51c	150$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75.83	202	39.6%80 W · 122 L	-2.4wins	-0.01per pick	41cpaid	-13.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf8d9…d7f5backed Over	55c	145.45$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	59	22%13 W · 46 L	-3.3wins	-0.06per pick	28cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc3eb…376cbacked Under	80c	120$96 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24	31	67.7%21 W · 10 L	+1.4wins	+0.04per pick	63cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x83da…41f7backed Over	54c	110.36$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	19	47.4%9 W · 10 L	-1.1wins	-0.06per pick	53cpaid	-14.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5238…1bc0backed Over	35c	100$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	5	40%2 W · 3 L	+0.2wins	+0.03per pick	37cpaid	+64.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x106b…4e8bbacked Over	45c	95.82$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.12	37	37.8%14 W · 23 L	-3.8wins	-0.10per pick	48cpaid	-21%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x25c2…e0cfbacked Under	47c	95.74$45 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$50.74	14	42.9%6 W · 8 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x51eb…6bfabacked Under	47c	85.53$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$45.53	279	55.9%156 W · 123 L	+6.9wins	+0.02per pick	53cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xeb89…46f1backed Under	49c	84.87$42 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$43.2	132	49.2%65 W · 67 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4a8d…31eabacked Over	55c	83.64$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46	495	44.2%219 W · 276 L	-20.0wins	-0.04per pick	48cpaid	-6.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6a96…e12fbacked Under	78c	82$64 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.04	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.7wins	-0.14per pick	54cpaid	-43.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Over	14c	78.27$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.96	515	42.5%219 W · 296 L	-9.6wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Under	46c	69.67$32 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$37.62	1,006	46.6%469 W · 537 L	-20.5wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc7fa…0e65backed Over	23c	69.13$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.85	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.7wins	-0.24per pick	24cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9c97…874abacked Over	30c	67$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.1	107	33.6%36 W · 71 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	34cpaid	+7.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1dc4…3479backed Over	52c	57$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.64	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-3.8wins	-0.54per pick	68cpaid	-81.7%equal weight	37-0.12 edge/pick
0x934f…5bd8backed Over	53c	50$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.5	43	58.1%25 W · 18 L	+3.0wins	+0.07per pick	51cpaid	+9.6%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x19bc…7d78backed Under	54c	49.32$27 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.75	126	46.8%59 W · 67 L	-3.0wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-10.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf69a…1326backed Over	55c	45.45$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	-0.7wins	-0.10per pick	53cpaid	-21.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x46a0…f721backed Over	55c	45.45$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	14	35.7%5 W · 9 L	-1.1wins	-0.08per pick	43cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x18e5…260cbacked Over	47c	42.28$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.08	38	36.8%14 W · 24 L	-3.2wins	-0.08per pick	45cpaid	-14.6%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfeb2…e990backed Over	55c	40$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	-1.0wins	-0.13per pick	50cpaid	-26.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfcb5…9bf1backed Under	47c	37.74$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20	373	42.6%159 W · 214 L	-7.3wins	-0.02per pick	45cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x725a…c06cbacked Over	53c	37.74$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	36	38.9%14 W · 22 L	-4.4wins	-0.12per pick	51cpaid	-23.4%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc13f…ca64backed Under	63c	30.16$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.16	16	50%8 W · 8 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x33a6…237fbacked Over	40c	25$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.4wins	-0.40per pick	40cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc8c9…b445backed Under	50c	24.48$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.29	25	56%14 W · 11 L	+3.2wins	+0.13per pick	43cpaid	+21.3%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6a5c…b3f2backed Under	55c	23.57$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.5	259	49.4%128 W · 131 L	-4.0wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-10%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x965f…7e39backed Over	54c	22.22$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	7	71.4%5 W · 2 L	+1.0wins	+0.15per pick	57cpaid	+27.6%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa66f…f5a3backed Under	46c	22$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.88	410	40.5%166 W · 244 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	41cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x20a8…3232backed Over	53c	20.68$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.96	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	-1.7wins	-0.25per pick	53cpaid	-48.8%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9eae…98a5backed Over	54c	20$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.8	177	59.9%106 W · 71 L	-16.7wins	-0.09per pick	69cpaid	-14.9%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xeedf…1483backed Over	54c	20$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.8	60	40%24 W · 36 L	-5.9wins	-0.10per pick	50cpaid	-14.6%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Over	52c	20$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.4	614	41.2%253 W · 361 L	-27.4wins	-0.04per pick	46cpaid	-19.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x31ed…09dabacked Over	55c	20$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	54	51.9%28 W · 26 L	-2.7wins	-0.05per pick	57cpaid	-8.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdc91…0fdbbacked Under	70c	20$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6	182	65.9%120 W · 62 L	+7.9wins	+0.04per pick	62cpaid	+6.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Aston Villa vs. Wolves: O/U 2.5this page
Aston Villa vs. Wolves: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
Aston Villa vs. Wolves: O/U 1.5Under won
Aston Villa vs. Wolves: O/U 3.5Under won
Spread: Aston Villa (-1.5)Wolves won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Aston Villa vs. Wolves: O/U 2.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event