Premier League · resolved market
Aston Villa vs. Wolves: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3a0148a14d2a9f8a593c00a30aca849d969619adf3fbe26b47146ecc7a862ec1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $44,424
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,684
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,424 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 50c | 5,949$3,001 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,947.37 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a26…1851backed Under | 44c | 4,999$2,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,799.44 | 196 | 52%102 W · 94 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 38c | 3,328$1,267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,266.93 | 1,004 | 46.3%465 W · 539 L | +25.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…1081backed Over | 79c | 3,157$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500 | 77 | 55.8%43 W · 34 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf5d…7253backed Over | 48c | 3,000$1,440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,440 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bf4…952ebacked Over | 48c | 2,001$970 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$970.48 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 48c | 1,708$814 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$894.2 | 2,661 | 45.5%1,210 W · 1,451 L | -11.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 65c | 1,408$920 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$487.85 | 202 | 39.6%80 W · 122 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe92c…d27ebacked Over | 79c | 1,266$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 87 | 43.7%38 W · 49 L | -8.5wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -25%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x700f…62d8backed Over | 35c | 857.14$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 290 | 44.8%130 W · 160 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 20c | 778.02$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$622.42 | 492 | 54.9%270 W · 222 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 52c | 703.01$366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337.06 | 2,212 | 49.3%1,091 W · 1,121 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x132e…c724backed Over | 58c | 700$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405.42 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaea3…7078backed Over | 71c | 685.61$487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$486.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 78c | 680$528 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$527.8 | 1,212 | 41.7%505 W · 707 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e49…63f2backed Under | 24c | 500$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380 | 294 | 27.9%82 W · 212 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Under | 22c | 444$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$346.32 | 215 | 48.8%105 W · 110 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76da…30a2backed Over | 73c | 411.56$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 138 | 42%58 W · 80 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8208…1742backed Under | 57c | 350.72$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.72 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa070…c103backed Over | 64c | 312.5$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Under | 20c | 245.61$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.49 | 515 | 42.5%219 W · 296 L | -9.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 46c | 243.58$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.47 | 1,272 | 50.4%641 W · 631 L | -53.9wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d04…cfc5backed Under | 43c | 230.95$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.64 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +12%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 23c | 205.31$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.12 | 370 | 36.2%134 W · 236 L | -18.1wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51d2…1462backed Over | 74c | 202.72$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.01 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4417…01eebacked Over | 64c | 200$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128 | 111 | 42.3%47 W · 64 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8816…7082backed Over | 77c | 153.31$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.05 | 142 | 52.8%75 W · 67 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5f1…8f46backed Over | 43c | 132.56$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Under | 22c | 91$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.98 | 541 | 28.3%153 W · 388 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b3…07f2backed Over | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…48bbbacked Over | 70c | 78.39$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.87 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -4.2wins | -0.30per pick | 52cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 36c | 55.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.83 | 4,744 | 41.8%1,983 W · 2,761 L | +28.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a6…c0fabacked Over | 78c | 51.28$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 58cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x49bb…27bdbacked Over | 70c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -3.1wins | -0.15per pick | 58cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd99e…b859backed Over | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -4.2wins | -0.18per pick | 53cpaid | -39%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6562…4e48backed Over | 35c | 36.13$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.66 | 252 | 56%141 W · 111 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19bc…7d78backed Under | 46c | 34.29$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 126 | 46.8%59 W · 67 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x423d…c621backed Over | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…5557backed Over | 41c | 27.54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a5c…b3f2backed Under | 42c | 26.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.38 | 259 | 49.4%128 W · 131 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04e7…a515backed Under | 72c | 22.22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.22 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb3f…7589backed Under | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 75cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9eae…98a5backed Over | 79c | 18.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 177 | 59.9%106 W · 71 L | -16.7wins | -0.09per pick | 69cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Aston Villa vs. Wolves: O/U 1.5this page
- Aston Villa vs. Wolves: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Aston Villa vs. Wolves: O/U 2.5Under won
- Aston Villa vs. Wolves: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: Aston Villa (-1.5)Wolves won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.