Bundesliga · resolved market
Union Berlin vs. Bayern München: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2fa126cec20f040739c9603f27a6bdd73a8280149de079bd023f6f8c31acdc4e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $131,636
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $135,698
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $131,636 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9165…5b98backed Over | 49c | 74,901$36,340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38,560.5 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9267…0f9abacked Under | 51c | 30,000$15,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,300 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea2b…1fc6backed Under | 52c | 30,000$15,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,500 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35f0…296dbacked Over | 47c | 19,104$8,979 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,125.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04b1…4c3bbacked Under | 53c | 18,858$9,995 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,994.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d95…9d3cbacked Under | 53c | 16,484$8,736 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,736.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e62…8603backed Over | 47c | 16,238$7,640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,598.42 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Under | 51c | 11,325$5,828 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,827.85 | 191 | 53.9%103 W · 88 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 53c | 4,044$2,131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,130.77 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 53c | 2,928$1,550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,549.94 | 141 | 57.4%81 W · 60 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 53c | 2,296$1,215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,215.36 | 447 | 49.4%221 W · 226 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x775e…6541backed Over | 46c | 1,305$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$704.91 | 83 | 36.1%30 W · 53 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6bd…270cbacked Over | 47c | 1,064$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$563.83 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 52c | 787.91$413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$412.65 | 110 | 40.9%45 W · 65 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa645…0be6backed Over | 39c | 755.26$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$461.26 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.2wins | +0.27per pick | 36cpaid | +80%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Over | 66c | 707.03$466 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.43 | 137 | 54%74 W · 63 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x182d…73e9backed Over | 45c | 555$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.25 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.7wins | -0.19per pick | 48cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf1…99d3backed Under | 55c | 545.45$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 71cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa39a…1246backed Over | 45c | 500$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275 | 80 | 68.8%55 W · 25 L | +7.5wins | +0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4103…9b9ebacked Over | 45c | 500$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb967…65edbacked Under | 73c | 484.92$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Over | 47c | 457.72$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.9 | 168 | 50%84 W · 84 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7eee…d930backed Over | 58c | 417.44$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.19 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 65cpaid | +39%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa19…fb67backed Over | 55c | 406.27$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.11 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.15per pick | 42cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x26ab…41c1backed Over | 50c | 400$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +3.8wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5244…23d9backed Over | 53c | 400$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +87.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Under | 50c | 334$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167 | 157 | 42%66 W · 91 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2fa0…aa66backed Over | 48c | 307.79$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.37 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Under | 49c | 300$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147 | 110 | 36.4%40 W · 70 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc794…d09cbacked Over | 31c | 250$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.5 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.6wins | +0.37per pick | 49cpaid | +84.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…db98backed Over | 38c | 250$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8208…1742backed Over | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.77 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.20per pick | 50cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7cb1…984ebacked Under | 45c | 200$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96ec…fcc4backed Over | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +2.8wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9403…7361backed Over | 51c | 195.3$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.3 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +5.7wins | +0.13per pick | 39cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xda0f…f0e7backed Over | 25c | 185.64$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.23 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +5.4wins | +0.19per pick | 33cpaid | +257.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfde8…c52fbacked Over | 28c | 179.1$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.1 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.21per pick | 42cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa60b…c728backed Under | 51c | 136$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.92 | 139 | 57.6%80 W · 59 L | +10.9wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe8…0fedbacked Under | 64c | 134.12$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.63 | 103 | 47.6%49 W · 54 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf270…6015backed Under | 40c | 125.93$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3b…b968backed Under | 41c | 123.02$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +56.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52a4…7fe3backed Over | 49c | 122.45$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.45 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +3.6wins | +0.24per pick | 56cpaid | +58.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Over | 45c | 111.85$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.55 | 67 | 47.8%32 W · 35 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3513…c19dbacked Under | 52c | 105.17$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.63 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…b610backed Over | 37c | 100$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +170.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Over | 50c | 98.77$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.75 | 165 | 42.4%70 W · 95 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcfe…d420backed Under | 56c | 98.21$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +3.5wins | +0.15per pick | 46cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec3…d1c7backed Under | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed Under | 49c | 88$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.12 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1756…74a4backed Over | 55c | 72.26$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +80.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Over | 49c | 69$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.19 | 91 | 73.6%67 W · 24 L | +5.9wins | +0.07per pick | 67cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…a408backed Over | 53c | 60.53$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.42 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2942…5c1bbacked Under | 54c | 60$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.1 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3eb0…8826backed Over | 49c | 59.18$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.18 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +5.0wins | +0.16per pick | 45cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed Under | 69c | 57.56$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | -7.4wins | -0.13per pick | 65cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc383…a540backed Under | 51c | 56.01$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.31 | 128 | 58.6%75 W · 53 L | +11.9wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +19%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Under | 63c | 52.36$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.16 | 511 | 36.8%188 W · 323 L | -28.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x39fe…e803backed Over | 48c | 52.19$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.19 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d7…8b82backed Over | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a5c…b3f2backed Under | 49c | 48.03$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.72 | 101 | 50.5%51 W · 50 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1ab…2798backed Over | 48c | 43$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.36 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.41per pick | 39cpaid | +76.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd960…1adebacked Under | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c8…2f76backed Under | 46c | 39.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -3.5wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xced0…c680backed Over | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +6.4wins | +0.21per pick | 49cpaid | +50.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x7541…09d1backed Over | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6894…59d8backed Over | 48c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x735a…3ef2backed Under | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed Under | 53c | 28.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.23 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…4936backed Over | 47c | 28.56$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.14 | 88 | 52.3%46 W · 42 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b03…ff9dbacked Over | 38c | 28.39$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfeef…6b35backed Under | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 65cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3864…857fbacked Under | 80c | 25.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb7d…5b5abacked Over | 64c | 21.88$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3be…b9dcbacked Under | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcec0…82ddbacked Over | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Union Berlin vs. Bayern München: O/U 3.5this page
- Spread: Bayern München (-1.5)Union Berlin won
- Union Berlin vs. Bayern München: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.