Bundesliga · resolved market
Spread: Bayern München (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6ea46ec3aed07b4de0eff6d92bbc9c07123bc447350fb93f0f8515468c23a259
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Union Berlinof Bayern München, Union Berlin
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,639
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,965
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,639 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Union Berlin | 40c | 10,001$4,001 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,000.84 | 74 | 47.3%35 W · 39 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8dcf…146ebacked Bayern München | 60c | 3,787$2,272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,272 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…9974backed Bayern München | 60c | 2,000$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200 | 86 | 37.2%32 W · 54 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe930…b44dbacked Union Berlin | 55c | 1,812$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$812.01 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07dd…ed9dbacked Bayern München | 60c | 1,148$689 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$688.77 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +3.0wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +37%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Union Berlin | 44c | 1,013$447 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$565.98 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Union Berlin | 39c | 947.41$368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$579.58 | 110 | 40.9%45 W · 65 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2d1…84a2backed Bayern München | 60c | 888$533 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$532.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 60cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6bd…270cbacked Bayern München | 61c | 816.8$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Union Berlin | 39c | 689.58$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$418.56 | 67 | 47.8%32 W · 35 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Bayern München | 36c | 612.53$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.14 | 191 | 53.9%103 W · 88 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…b1b1backed Bayern München | 61c | 608.47$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -3.8wins | -0.29per pick | 45cpaid | -62%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Bayern München | 60c | 600$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6884…6ccfbacked Bayern München | 62c | 539.1$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b2…b589backed Bayern München | 59c | 426.53$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7555…ce17backed Bayern München | 60c | 333.33$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4417…8d57backed Bayern München | 61c | 327.85$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.99 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Union Berlin | 41c | 320$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.8 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Union Berlin | 40c | 300$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 168 | 50%84 W · 84 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc4…f44fbacked Union Berlin | 40c | 300$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12e3…c370backed Bayern München | 60c | 280$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c1e…9514backed Bayern München | 61c | 245.9$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Union Berlin | 39c | 233$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.13 | 143 | 64.3%92 W · 51 L | +14.8wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfa43…3215backed Bayern München | 61c | 213.69$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9c6…d24cbacked Bayern München | 59c | 204$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.95 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4702…457fbacked Bayern München | 59c | 202.44$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.44 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9804…d512backed Bayern München | 61c | 170$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.7 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe68c…779dbacked Bayern München | 61c | 162.61$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ed…f9c8backed Bayern München | 63c | 158.73$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4740…fa66backed Bayern München | 61c | 131.15$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Union Berlin | 39c | 124.65$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.09 | 447 | 49.4%221 W · 226 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd002…2ee8backed Bayern München | 60c | 118.33$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x252a…fe42backed Bayern München | 63c | 111.16$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf70…7d5fbacked Bayern München | 62c | 100$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 61 | 47.5%29 W · 32 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6b8…3539backed Union Berlin | 41c | 100$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39a2…a471backed Union Berlin | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9403…7361backed Bayern München | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +5.7wins | +0.13per pick | 39cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc1fc…4a59backed Bayern München | 49c | 91.84$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd14c…c9f0backed Bayern München | 60c | 90$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 49cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5632…c2dabacked Union Berlin | 62c | 81.26$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.26 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3c…93d7backed Bayern München | 61c | 80$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.8 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.28per pick | 39cpaid | -70%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x735a…3ef2backed Bayern München | 48c | 52.03$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Bayern München | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 188 | 40.4%76 W · 112 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x787c…7ae2backed Bayern München | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8fe…ba40backed Bayern München | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2942…5c1bbacked Union Berlin | 39c | 49.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.49 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2623…e65abacked Bayern München | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59ca…fd12backed Bayern München | 53c | 38.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd960…1adebacked Union Berlin | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa66b…6e61backed Bayern München | 58c | 36.36$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc609…f29abacked Union Berlin | 42c | 35.71$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.71 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2909…c95cbacked Bayern München | 61c | 32.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9318…a645backed Bayern München | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -5.4wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcb4f…0d92backed Bayern München | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x197e…259abacked Bayern München | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f22…be14backed Bayern München | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.39per pick | 59cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4682…de69backed Bayern München | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1690…4bf8backed Bayern München | 60c | 31.48$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd14e…7e5fbacked Bayern München | 62c | 31$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.22 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a5c…b3f2backed Union Berlin | 51c | 27.16$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.22 | 101 | 50.5%51 W · 50 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfeef…6b35backed Bayern München | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 65cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x535d…6ff7backed Bayern München | 61c | 24.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf430…675abacked Bayern München | 56c | 19.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Bayern München (-1.5)this page
- Union Berlin vs. Bayern München: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Union Berlin vs. Bayern München: O/U 3.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.