TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Warriors vs. Kings

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Kingsof Warriors, Kings
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,824,733
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,858,408

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,824,733 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 750 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3987…259ebacked Warriors44c518,728$228,240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$228,240.358022.5%18 W · 62 L-10.0wins-0.12per pick35cpaid-49.4%equal weight39-0.09 edge/pick
0xb744…5210backed Kings56c500,000$280,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$220,00015443.5%67 W · 87 L+0.4wins0.00per pick43cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xccca…3b2bbacked Warriors44c102,350$45,260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45,260.452330.4%7 W · 16 L-2.2wins-0.10per pick40cpaid-27.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc3c3…eec8backed Kings45c80,000$36,142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43,858.3538248.7%186 W · 196 L+13.9wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+0.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x900c…1d7abacked Kings57c55,664$31,751 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,912.9571052.1%370 W · 340 L+11.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3151…0977backed Warriors28c54,380$15,068 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,068.4519249.5%95 W · 97 L+0.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-13.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f09…4632backed Warriors46c52,892$24,319 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24,319.1520253.5%108 W · 94 L+6.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2129…4222backed Warriors32c44,328$14,154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,153.6647448.7%231 W · 243 L-0.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid+5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x83b9…6124backed Warriors46c42,669$19,791 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,790.8336148.5%175 W · 186 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked Kings56c39,916$22,370 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,545.9569852%363 W · 335 L+10.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e3a…4033backed Kings69c29,047$20,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,047.2534062.1%211 W · 129 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9267…0f9abacked Kings56c28,647$15,956 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,691.2959653.4%318 W · 278 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc996…bb65backed Kings41c26,651$10,879 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,772.0247144.2%208 W · 263 L-10.1wins-0.02per pick46cpaid+0.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8151…beebbacked Warriors63c24,092$15,163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,163.0920%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Kings55c24,031$13,280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,750.972,26543.4%982 W · 1,283 L-26.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Warriors44c18,756$8,319 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,319.3585742.6%365 W · 492 L-15.6wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-13.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3eac…4c8cbacked Kings56c18,098$10,135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,963.1211558.3%67 W · 48 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+3.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0a59…770cbacked Warriors62c17,421$10,879 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,879.026665.2%43 W · 23 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick63cpaid-3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Warriors35c16,808$5,842 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,841.981,22637.4%458 W · 768 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-21.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x64b5…7543backed Warriors44c14,000$6,130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,129.9735235.8%126 W · 226 L+5.1wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+10.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd46b…64debacked Warriors0c13,084$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.0810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Kings55c12,179$6,681 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,498.239,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Warriors27c11,796$3,137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,137.328,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ada…2f28backed Warriors3c11,079$303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302.5864517.1%110 W · 535 L-11.9wins-0.02per pick19cpaid-44.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf5f2…0234backed Kings56c10,837$6,069 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,768.2717658%102 W · 74 L+13.5wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+15.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xe887…05cabacked Warriors71c10,347$7,329 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,328.71040%4 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.16per pick56cpaid-25.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xff12…09f9backed Kings71c10,265$7,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,965.4119388.1%170 W · 23 L+48.6wins+0.25per pick63cpaid+46.2%equal weight75+0.22 edge/pick
0x9c95…ed41backed Warriors43c10,000$4,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,3004447.7%21 W · 23 L+4.0wins+0.09per pick39cpaid+34.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3850…c4b4backed Warriors44c10,000$4,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,40012334.1%42 W · 81 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-13.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a21…d307backed Warriors60c10,000$6,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,000650%3 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-29.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4c03…0cc1backed Warriors1c9,702$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.021,60211.8%189 W · 1,413 L-4.8wins0.00per pick12cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e82…752cbacked Warriors42c9,529$4,004 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,004.31,20455.3%666 W · 538 L+52.0wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+12.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Warriors40c9,039$3,634 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,634.1581529.4%240 W · 575 L-37.0wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-43%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe8bd…4029backed Kings56c8,904$4,986 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,917.831100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d4b…f95fbacked Warriors43c8,902$3,867 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,866.63333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick53cpaid-30.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x00c3…89aebacked Warriors43c8,730$3,754 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,753.8510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x68df…7b21backed Kings57c8,723$4,972 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,750.91250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-12.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8ddb…420bbacked Kings41c8,482$3,470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,012.0529458.5%172 W · 122 L+6.0wins+0.02per pick56cpaid-0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4231…f63ebacked Kings54c7,678$4,184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,494.5112160.3%73 W · 48 L+10.3wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+19.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x84db…aeebbacked Kings57c7,309$4,164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,144.911,37450.1%689 W · 685 L+34.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4d45…9054backed Kings56c6,643$3,718 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,924.9730053.3%160 W · 140 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+7.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6a32…0086backed Warriors44c6,619$2,938 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,937.911,33251.2%682 W · 650 L+7.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe6fb…ee11backed Kings53c6,548$3,491 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,056.376659.1%39 W · 27 L+6.4wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+21.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5116…58c4backed Kings51c6,428$3,298 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,130.5876850.3%386 W · 382 L-5.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd9dd…b525backed Kings46c6,000$2,780 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,219.9944337.9%168 W · 275 L-0.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-9.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5523…51e9backed Kings57c5,664$3,228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,435.461851.6%319 W · 299 L-1.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid+3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe542…0a37backed Warriors45c5,611$2,523 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,523.2440133.4%134 W · 267 L+27.0wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+20.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Kings45c5,337$2,383 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,954.693,34243.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L+81.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe405…bf91backed Warriors59c5,273$3,130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,13048448.8%236 W · 248 L-5.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Warriors44c5,002$2,201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,201.112,04548.4%990 W · 1,055 L-30.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd4f8…b76fbacked Warriors43c5,000$2,150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,149.972860.7%17 W · 11 L+4.3wins+0.15per pick45cpaid+41%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc8b4…f05dbacked Kings57c4,996$2,848 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,148.4166853.4%357 W · 311 L+22.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+7.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc2e2…9b0cbacked Warriors68c4,874$3,323 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,323.131838.9%7 W · 11 L-2.0wins-0.11per pick50cpaid-12.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7d5c…0182backed Kings55c4,845$2,662 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,182.5947751.8%247 W · 230 L+1.6wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x066e…ceb2backed Kings38c4,628$1,765 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,863.115339.6%21 W · 32 L+2.2wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+0.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3ea9…e3c0backed Warriors44c4,500$1,982 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,982.55655.4%31 W · 25 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a7e…fce4backed Warriors40c4,500$1,819 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,818.8861835.4%219 W · 399 L+7.8wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+6.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd161…4cc1backed Warriors43c4,458$1,905 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,905.3378445.8%359 W · 425 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3450…6793backed Warriors45c4,407$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00017441.4%72 W · 102 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-5.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x744c…e37fbacked Kings57c4,386$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,885.961070%7 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick66cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb9b6…630cbacked Kings56c4,347$2,434 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,912.656352.4%33 W · 30 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+7.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdeaf…dbaabacked Kings30c4,000$1,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,80037930.6%116 W · 263 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick29cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc550…353fbacked Warriors43c4,000$1,720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,7206636.4%24 W · 42 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-12.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xee2e…f422backed Kings57c3,888$2,216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,671.844259.5%25 W · 17 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2bc7…e411backed Kings56c3,701$2,059 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,642.029855.1%54 W · 44 L+5.3wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+14.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe651…8764backed Kings38c3,690$1,401 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,288.44560%3 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.26per pick34cpaid+65.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Warriors30c3,571$1,082 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,081.722,63036.7%966 W · 1,664 L-119.1wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-25.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Warriors36c3,569$1,299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,298.581,40940.2%567 W · 842 L-40.5wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-23.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7b9d…269dbacked Kings61c3,177$1,927 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,250.2848739.8%194 W · 293 L-21.1wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-27.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed Warriors44c3,100$1,364 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,3641,78228%499 W · 1,283 L+11.5wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0eb3…f766backed Warriors44c3,059$1,332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,331.5748944.2%216 W · 273 L-12.3wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-9.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x52ec…a6f3backed Kings57c3,000$1,710 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,29043051.4%221 W · 209 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4fc1…ec92backed Warriors44c3,000$1,320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,32075347.5%358 W · 395 L+10.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb43…3c74backed Warriors42c3,000$1,260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,26047748.8%233 W · 244 L+1.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Kings57c3,000$1,710 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,2901,82052.1%948 W · 872 L+48.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5b8e…5c3cbacked Warriors44c2,977$1,297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,297.0544459.7%265 W · 179 L+12.4wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x45c3…42f9backed Kings62c2,894$1,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,093.6316852.4%88 W · 80 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+5.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d3a…7b63backed Kings56c2,876$1,611 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,265.4576249.5%377 W · 385 L-8.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe653…c4a7backed Kings77c2,796$2,156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$640.5822457.1%128 W · 96 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Warriors44c2,584$1,147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,146.542,16940.8%885 W · 1,284 L-8.7wins0.00per pick41cpaid-14.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x057a…3bacbacked Warriors51c2,556$1,307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,307.3226038.1%99 W · 161 L-9.3wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-24%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8f7a…db40backed Warriors44c2,500$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,10018047.8%86 W · 94 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x377c…91aebacked Kings36c2,445$890 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,554.9947535.8%170 W · 305 L+41.1wins+0.09per pick27cpaid+26.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1f7b…d405backed Warriors43c2,311$994 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$993.891931.6%6 W · 13 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-32.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x60cc…f0dfbacked Kings57c2,300$1,311 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98910852.8%57 W · 51 L-0.1wins0.00per pick53cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1161…ed62backed Warriors35c2,284$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8006058.3%35 W · 25 L+7.2wins+0.12per pick46cpaid+13.7%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0xd1e0…8913backed Kings57c2,272$1,295 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$976.935971.2%42 W · 17 L+5.9wins+0.10per pick61cpaid+17%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xfd99…f375backed Kings36c2,234$814 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,420.5338151.2%195 W · 186 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcacf…35ffbacked Warriors1c2,194$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.947211%7 W · 714 L-2.6wins0.00per pick1cpaid-32.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf32d…bbbbbacked Warriors46c2,183$1,004 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0045650%28 W · 28 L-4.7wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-17.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1747…bdf1backed Kings38c2,128$809 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,319.141369.2%9 W · 4 L+2.6wins+0.20per pick50cpaid+56.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x4c86…6993backed Warriors16c2,108$343 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$342.5734425.6%88 W · 256 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-14.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd589…27c2backed Warriors48c2,000$960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96017637.5%66 W · 110 L-16.3wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-20.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x96bc…7fb4backed Warriors41c2,000$820 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82023644.1%104 W · 132 L-0.3wins0.00per pick44cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8198…e96ebacked Kings33c2,000$660 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,34016446.3%76 W · 88 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1dc8…4c1dbacked Warriors43c2,000$860 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86027848.9%136 W · 142 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x81e4…6f22backed Kings38c1,989$747 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,242.6517250%86 W · 86 L+7.0wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed Kings54c1,985$1,072 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$913.11,21248.3%586 W · 626 L-20.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3ff2…49febacked Warriors50c1,970$989 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$988.824634.6%85 W · 161 L-6.3wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-18.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x22d0…6293backed Kings57c1,948$1,102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$846.8110451%53 W · 51 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick52cpaid+0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.