NBA · resolved market
Warriors vs. Kings: O/U 228.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x23dab3d0bc406ed6d5aa90b601ae65bb2a8c04cb02b748a801c814adcea584ea
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,138
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,541
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,138 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x495c…f211backed Under | 53c | 4,892$2,593 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,592.76 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.22per pick | 51cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d69…6a61backed Over | 47c | 4,892$2,299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,592.76 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3cb…178bbacked Under | 53c | 4,350$2,306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,305.5 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc520…3249backed Over | 47c | 4,350$2,045 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,305.5 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e82…752cbacked Under | 51c | 4,086$2,098 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,098.46 | 1,204 | 55.3%666 W · 538 L | +52.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5de1…db81backed Over | 47c | 3,128$1,470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,657.84 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ea…5491backed Under | 53c | 3,128$1,658 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,657.84 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2b8…5f86backed Over | 47c | 2,809$1,320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,488.77 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 48cpaid | +60.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc4…4869backed Under | 53c | 2,809$1,489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,488.77 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.33per pick | 50cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 49c | 2,535$1,232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,303.1 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20f5…3b1cbacked Under | 53c | 2,406$1,275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,275.18 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x853c…0320backed Under | 53c | 2,386$1,265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,264.58 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3659…7654backed Over | 47c | 2,357$1,108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,249.21 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.29per pick | 51cpaid | +56.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc981…81d8backed Over | 47c | 2,248$1,057 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,191.44 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 48cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x220b…147bbacked Under | 53c | 2,219$1,176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,176.07 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b3…1663backed Over | 47c | 1,948$916 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,032.44 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 48cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef33…7794backed Over | 47c | 1,721$809 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$912.13 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.22per pick | 49cpaid | +45.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51e9…bec8backed Under | 53c | 1,263$669 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$669.39 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Over | 45c | 720.18$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$396.1 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c8b…b3c3backed Over | 48c | 416.67$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.67 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | +69.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Over | 44c | 398$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.88 | 1,451 | 49.7%721 W · 730 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Over | 49c | 231.74$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.06 | 1,332 | 51.2%682 W · 650 L | +7.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbba2…eaa6backed Over | 47c | 195.11$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.41 | 163 | 57.1%93 W · 70 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Under | 55c | 155$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.25 | 710 | 52.1%370 W · 340 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Under | 57c | 113.95$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.95 | 662 | 50.8%336 W · 326 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 53c | 106.38$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.38 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x338b…97b3backed Over | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.17 | 213 | 38%81 W · 132 L | -12.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc6…0f52backed Over | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.17 | 63 | 50.8%32 W · 31 L | -6.4wins | -0.10per pick | 61cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x235e…5673backed Over | 43c | 100$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 251 | 43.4%109 W · 142 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2816…0730backed Over | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 110 | 28.2%31 W · 79 L | -9.1wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0071…32dfbacked Under | 55c | 72.73$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd63e…0d52backed Under | 63c | 63.49$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 165 | 55.2%91 W · 74 L | -12.1wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Over | 37c | 63.49$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 121 | 60.3%73 W · 48 L | +10.3wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4f7e…b1e3backed Over | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8821…ba33backed Under | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Warriors vs. Kings: O/U 228.5this page
- 1H Spread: Kings (-1.5)Warriors won
- Spread: Kings (-1.5)Kings won
- Spread: Kings (-2.5)Kings won
- Spread: Warriors (-3.5)Kings won
- Warriors vs. KingsKings won
- Warriors vs. Kings: 1H MoneylineWarriors won
- Warriors vs. Kings: 1H O/U 109.5Over won
- Warriors vs. Kings: 1H O/U 110.5Over won
- Warriors vs. Kings: O/U 223.5Over won
- Warriors vs. Kings: O/U 224.5Over won
- Warriors vs. Kings: O/U 225.5Over won
- Warriors vs. Kings: O/U 226.5Over won
- Warriors vs. Kings: O/U 227.5Over won
- Warriors vs. Kings: O/U 230.5Over won
- Warriors vs. Kings: O/U 231.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.