NBA · resolved market
Spread: Kings (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfe4fb9ab99cadc69c09a76876aea346332623d97190147d3f8cf1347a34d97f3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Kingsof Kings, Warriors
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,184
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,577
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,184 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x74d3…0332backed Kings | 52c | 10,000$5,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,799.93 | 346 | 45.4%157 W · 189 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5c…0182backed Warriors | 48c | 4,282$2,055 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,055.36 | 477 | 51.8%247 W · 230 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Warriors | 46c | 4,032$1,872 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,872.03 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e82…752cbacked Warriors | 47c | 3,906$1,832 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,831.74 | 1,204 | 55.3%666 W · 538 L | +52.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Warriors | 48c | 2,867$1,384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,384.46 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Kings | 54c | 2,681$1,441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,239.97 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb52d…95ffbacked Kings | 51c | 2,139$1,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,039.06 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabf5…cfebbacked Kings | 52c | 2,115$1,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,015.38 | 480 | 54.2%260 W · 220 L | +14.0wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…9054backed Warriors | 48c | 1,977$949 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$948.79 | 300 | 53.3%160 W · 140 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Kings | 52c | 1,607$835 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$771.18 | 475 | 42.3%201 W · 274 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Kings | 53c | 1,238$659 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$579.41 | 698 | 52%363 W · 335 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7a7…d3abbacked Warriors | 51c | 1,200$612 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$612 | 200 | 34%68 W · 132 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Warriors | 49c | 1,076$523 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$523.2 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Kings | 51c | 1,031$523 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$507.97 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44c4…501bbacked Warriors | 50c | 600$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.5 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Kings | 51c | 588$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.12 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Kings | 53c | 505.9$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.77 | 710 | 52.1%370 W · 340 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e84…768ebacked Kings | 51c | 497.51$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.51 | 136 | 44.9%61 W · 75 L | -7.7wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed3…bffcbacked Warriors | 47c | 483.33$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5384…9d80backed Kings | 52c | 450$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Warriors | 48c | 424.36$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.69 | 1,139 | 48.3%550 W · 589 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4103…9b9ebacked Kings | 52c | 384.62$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.62 | 417 | 42%175 W · 242 L | -16.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc9…e444backed Kings | 54c | 370.37$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.37 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | -6.0wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Kings | 53c | 302.08$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142 | 522 | 40%209 W · 313 L | -8.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Kings | 52c | 260.92$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.95 | 801 | 48.3%387 W · 414 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Warriors | 48c | 253.34$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.66 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ce…316ebacked Warriors | 52c | 234.52$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.95 | 45 | 64.4%29 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3333…ed90backed Warriors | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -5.7wins | -0.20per pick | 47cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x28a8…57d5backed Kings | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Warriors | 47c | 193.49$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.94 | 121 | 60.3%73 W · 48 L | +10.3wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…cd84backed Warriors | 47c | 150$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.5 | 123 | 42.3%52 W · 71 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x12c4…ff8cbacked Kings | 52c | 133.56$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.56 | 152 | 45.4%69 W · 83 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7415…fae8backed Warriors | 49c | 122.45$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Warriors | 54c | 117$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.18 | 1,332 | 51.2%682 W · 650 L | +7.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Warriors | 48c | 107$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.36 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb7…b348backed Warriors | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.25per pick | 45cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf899…2e61backed Warriors | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2816…0730backed Warriors | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 110 | 28.2%31 W · 79 L | -9.1wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0435…cf1dbacked Kings | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 169 | 47.3%80 W · 89 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5937…cc97backed Kings | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Warriors | 46c | 93.29$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.91 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6158…81bcbacked Kings | 50c | 80$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -3.5wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a5c…b3f2backed Warriors | 48c | 65.87$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.59 | 327 | 43.4%142 W · 185 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4627…7c23backed Kings | 49c | 61.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.22 | 134 | 49.3%66 W · 68 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Warriors | 51c | 55$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.18 | 597 | 43.6%260 W · 337 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea81…eeaebacked Warriors | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x939d…3b3cbacked Kings | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 60 | 50%30 W · 30 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54dc…58a2backed Warriors | 49c | 40.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf02…38b9backed Kings | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35a6…cb8fbacked Warriors | 52c | 38.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0f…7037backed Kings | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…d225backed Kings | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb052…7adabacked Warriors | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 290 | 46.9%136 W · 154 L | -9.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x426f…e76bbacked Warriors | 50c | 28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 176 | 44.9%79 W · 97 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c65…845dbacked Warriors | 53c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe332…e295backed Kings | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcaba…ba7cbacked Kings | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -6.0wins | -0.19per pick | 56cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x218e…e49dbacked Kings | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 482 | 55%265 W · 217 L | -9.6wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Kings (-2.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Kings (-1.5)Warriors won
- Spread: Kings (-1.5)Kings won
- Spread: Warriors (-3.5)Kings won
- Warriors vs. KingsKings won
- Warriors vs. Kings: 1H MoneylineWarriors won
- Warriors vs. Kings: 1H O/U 109.5Over won
- Warriors vs. Kings: 1H O/U 110.5Over won
- Warriors vs. Kings: O/U 223.5Over won
- Warriors vs. Kings: O/U 224.5Over won
- Warriors vs. Kings: O/U 225.5Over won
- Warriors vs. Kings: O/U 226.5Over won
- Warriors vs. Kings: O/U 227.5Over won
- Warriors vs. Kings: O/U 228.5Over won
- Warriors vs. Kings: O/U 230.5Over won
- Warriors vs. Kings: O/U 231.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.