NBA · resolved market
Spread: Warriors (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3ad9df946173e6e07042c7284e8197428ecd8bfb617ce674226c8460a91d5f24
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Kingsof Warriors, Kings
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,009
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,694
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,009 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Kings | 54c | 3,609$1,966 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,643.19 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Warriors | 45c | 3,512$1,563 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,563.41 | 471 | 44.2%208 W · 263 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb295…e601backed Kings | 49c | 901.77$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$461.77 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3de6…405cbacked Warriors | 38c | 600$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228 | 434 | 53.2%231 W · 203 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb230…4193backed Warriors | 38c | 599.99$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.99 | 193 | 51.3%99 W · 94 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2630…e941backed Kings | 60c | 500$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 428 | 45.1%193 W · 235 L | -15.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Warriors | 40c | 500$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x253d…aa62backed Warriors | 38c | 449.55$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.83 | 583 | 47%274 W · 309 L | -12.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Warriors | 52c | 416.67$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.67 | 474 | 48.7%231 W · 243 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Warriors | 50c | 199$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.5 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab7d…d04bbacked Kings | 53c | 105$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.35 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x395c…ad6fbacked Kings | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Kings | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 141 | 39%55 W · 86 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd99…f375backed Warriors | 53c | 83.38$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.19 | 381 | 51.2%195 W · 186 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98d0…01a4backed Kings | 68c | 20.58$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.58 | 146 | 54.8%80 W · 66 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Warriors (-3.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Kings (-1.5)Warriors won
- Spread: Kings (-1.5)Kings won
- Spread: Kings (-2.5)Kings won
- Warriors vs. KingsKings won
- Warriors vs. Kings: 1H MoneylineWarriors won
- Warriors vs. Kings: 1H O/U 109.5Over won
- Warriors vs. Kings: 1H O/U 110.5Over won
- Warriors vs. Kings: O/U 223.5Over won
- Warriors vs. Kings: O/U 224.5Over won
- Warriors vs. Kings: O/U 225.5Over won
- Warriors vs. Kings: O/U 226.5Over won
- Warriors vs. Kings: O/U 227.5Over won
- Warriors vs. Kings: O/U 228.5Over won
- Warriors vs. Kings: O/U 230.5Over won
- Warriors vs. Kings: O/U 231.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.