Serie A · resolved market
Will Lazio win on 2025-10-04?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbe279d9272fe73633595583fdea0884f8ba143174d4f5ecbfdf6e00d612cc6bf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,727
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,646
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,727 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 52c | 14,163$7,346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,817.47 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Yes | 47c | 8,999$4,230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,229.61 | 160 | 45%72 W · 88 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked No | 48c | 2,898$1,404 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,493.51 | 161 | 54%87 W · 74 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe427…4c44backed Yes | 55c | 2,717$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed No | 47c | 2,230$1,038 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,191.95 | 120 | 49.2%59 W · 61 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea8…1fbfbacked Yes | 44c | 2,072$910 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$909.85 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 54c | 1,327$712 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$615.63 | 246 | 57.3%141 W · 105 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6324…95b9backed Yes | 54c | 1,308$706 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$706.07 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Yes | 48c | 1,000$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed No | 46c | 960.97$442 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$519.05 | 201 | 43.8%88 W · 113 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a77…54d7backed Yes | 53c | 934.83$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x357b…0b65backed Yes | 71c | 707.75$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 70cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 53c | 694$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.8 | 447 | 53.5%239 W · 208 L | +17.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7412…0ccbbacked Yes | 54c | 658$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.42 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5adf…a5e7backed Yes | 53c | 627.12$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.26 | 76 | 31.6%24 W · 52 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ef4…4e4ebacked Yes | 79c | 611.35$482 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$482.11 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27a9…8781backed Yes | 44c | 549.84$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.54 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb125…69ebbacked No | 24c | 522.25$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$395.66 | 51 | 27.5%14 W · 37 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +110.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed Yes | 68c | 519.69$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.39 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Yes | 48c | 510.42$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.9 | 67 | 37.3%25 W · 42 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x588d…099abacked No | 29c | 492.96$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf6…513abacked No | 46c | 485.91$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.95 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | +3.7wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe797…2b36backed Yes | 49c | 457.12$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.63 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x891d…dd26backed No | 56c | 333.93$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.93 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -4.0wins | -0.21per pick | 53cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed No | 40c | 331.06$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.92 | 592 | 40.7%241 W · 351 L | -15.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf575…e0ebbacked Yes | 25c | 320.05$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd410…3a1bbacked Yes | 54c | 300$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162 | 126 | 49.2%62 W · 64 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15e3…009fbacked Yes | 51c | 300$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf99d…f867backed Yes | 52c | 267.54$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.15 | 60 | 56.7%34 W · 26 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2619…9f4ebacked No | 46c | 265.76$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.51 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 25c | 242.17$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.65 | 1,981 | 39.8%788 W · 1,193 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06c…6961backed Yes | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 69 | 60.9%42 W · 27 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ae7…7ee5backed Yes | 53c | 210.38$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.5 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 42cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x26ab…41c1backed No | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +5.4wins | +0.26per pick | 46cpaid | +51.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Yes | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Yes | 54c | 200$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed Yes | 48c | 200$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | +6.9wins | +0.14per pick | 40cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Yes | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 267 | 44.6%119 W · 148 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Yes | 27c | 151.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.4 | 200 | 33%66 W · 134 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed No | 50c | 132.5$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.25 | 125 | 40%50 W · 75 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked No | 51c | 124.1$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.81 | 205 | 44.9%92 W · 113 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 57c | 107$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.46 | 328 | 43.6%143 W · 185 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 156 | 23.7%37 W · 119 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd574…425dbacked Yes | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.89 | 103 | 39.8%41 W · 62 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…06c9backed Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe505…fadbbacked No | 32c | 93.75$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.75 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Yes | 55c | 91.73$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd307…f2b5backed Yes | 71c | 90$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.1 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 65cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x735a…3ef2backed Yes | 52c | 86.1$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 74 | 50%37 W · 37 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2272…2e9cbacked Yes | 50c | 85.5$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.75 | 49 | 30.6%15 W · 34 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06a9…1a49backed Yes | 53c | 75.47$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 131 | 55%72 W · 59 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb7…04d8backed Yes | 55c | 63.92$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba49…a4a1backed Yes | 47c | 61.89$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.09 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54f2…d0e3backed Yes | 45c | 60$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 19c | 60$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.6 | 284 | 45.4%129 W · 155 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc71e…f450backed No | 56c | 56.82$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -2.8wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x392a…6bbabacked Yes | 48c | 52.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x865f…e88ebacked No | 45c | 47$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.85 | 419 | 43.9%184 W · 235 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf10f…004dbacked Yes | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 46 | 63%29 W · 17 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe18c…5bc3backed Yes | 49c | 45.14$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d40…b4ecbacked Yes | 42c | 44.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.95 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3991…b6c7backed Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Yes | 68c | 39.8$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.04 | 242 | 38.4%93 W · 149 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf573…5910backed Yes | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 34cpaid | +92.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x53e8…bf07backed Yes | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cdd…3a5bbacked Yes | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc5…ee5abacked Yes | 54c | 38.39$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.73 | 71 | 38%27 W · 44 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d4f…3e05backed Yes | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d85…228ebacked Yes | 53c | 37.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe35e…c46fbacked Yes | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1903…e937backed Yes | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x851d…1f74backed Yes | 54c | 33.53$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked No | 42c | 30.56$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.77 | 85 | 58.8%50 W · 35 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c60…ea1dbacked Yes | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed No | 48c | 24.1$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 284 | 58.1%165 W · 119 L | +12.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3058…5412backed Yes | 54c | 24.07$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 84 | 56%47 W · 37 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x409d…de35backed Yes | 73c | 20.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x355c…2948backed Yes | 57c | 19.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf81…cf50backed Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Lazio win on 2025-10-04?this page
- Will Lazio vs. Torino end in a draw?Yes won
- Will Torino win on 2025-10-04?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.