Serie A · resolved market
Will Torino win on 2025-10-04?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x74fd3c6e2b068fb060b0c1b22fa38da2097fe32b0b4c748f90665d2d453ff771
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,872
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,130
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,872 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x83fb…97cfbacked Yes | 13c | 3,049$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -26%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2d…affdbacked Yes | 2c | 2,275$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea8…1fbfbacked No | 79c | 846.6$668 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.67 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e49…63f2backed Yes | 19c | 707.45$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.22 | 208 | 27.9%58 W · 150 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 17c | 693$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$572.91 | 1,981 | 39.8%788 W · 1,193 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9750…bb53backed Yes | 28c | 640.11$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 16c | 424.07$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.31 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3505…f7a3backed No | 76c | 399.17$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.8 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 69cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc470…1eecbacked No | 17c | 308.39$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.3 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.31per pick | 29cpaid | +134.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb125…69ebbacked Yes | 12c | 300$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 51 | 27.5%14 W · 37 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +110.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffb…a834backed No | 57c | 264.26$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.88 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe9b…5662backed Yes | 53c | 264.15$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d67…81f2backed Yes | 19c | 263.16$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Yes | 78c | 233.98$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.49 | 201 | 43.8%88 W · 113 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed No | 21c | 220$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.96 | 328 | 43.6%143 W · 185 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e10…70f4backed Yes | 38c | 210$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3694…bd33backed Yes | 19c | 210$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf0…309ebacked Yes | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd523…0aa4backed Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5543…4195backed Yes | 19c | 183.36$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecb5…26afbacked Yes | 19c | 183.28$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Yes | 18c | 156.5$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.49 | 161 | 54%87 W · 74 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe797…2b36backed No | 78c | 150$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f0d…5de2backed Yes | 27c | 148.15$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ab…341bbacked Yes | 73c | 136.94$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +23%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedb1…3fddbacked Yes | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2272…2e9cbacked Yes | 18c | 110.31$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.31 | 49 | 30.6%15 W · 34 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Yes | 19c | 107.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.47 | 129 | 23.3%30 W · 99 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9f…f4afbacked Yes | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x237f…d0edbacked Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x753b…1b94backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -51%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf69…aa05backed Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | -3.4wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x16ce…b3dcbacked No | 78c | 64.1$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1677…1126backed No | 80c | 58$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 124 | 52.4%65 W · 59 L | +7.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3459…808abacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 45 | 20%9 W · 36 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7529…5cd7backed Yes | 76c | 24.85$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed No | 79c | 20.82$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.47 | 592 | 40.7%241 W · 351 L | -15.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf6…513abacked No | 80c | 16.1$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.22 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | +3.7wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Torino win on 2025-10-04?this page
- Will Lazio vs. Torino end in a draw?Yes won
- Will Lazio win on 2025-10-04?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.