Serie A · resolved market
Will Lazio vs. Torino end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x484ff26e3e3816c0c05fe3c4b71111faa65cb8d6af35d3f267c31bd057718d9b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,348
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,622
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,348 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc864…97dfbacked No | 71c | 1,451$1,030 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,029.96 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ab…341bbacked Yes | 70c | 1,434$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$434.44 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +23%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Yes | 29c | 1,393$405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$988.47 | 161 | 54%87 W · 74 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 65c | 1,174$765 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$764.7 | 246 | 57.3%141 W · 105 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed No | 1c | 1,170$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 200 | 33%66 W · 134 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 21c | 1,161$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.73 | 1,981 | 39.8%788 W · 1,193 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf519…906bbacked Yes | 28c | 1,041$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$749.33 | 210 | 58.6%123 W · 87 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked No | 72c | 1,039$748 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$748.08 | 80 | 58.8%47 W · 33 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0727…ec27backed Yes | 25c | 983.96$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$733.96 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 29c | 744.46$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$531.06 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda0f…f0e7backed Yes | 9c | 738.66$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$670.29 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +3.1wins | +0.15per pick | 42cpaid | +103.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf89f…bd07backed Yes | 64c | 698.8$446 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.8 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea8…1fbfbacked No | 64c | 634.31$404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$403.76 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed No | 63c | 557.91$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352.26 | 201 | 43.8%88 W · 113 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked No | 70c | 500$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 67 | 37.3%25 W · 42 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed No | 26c | 402$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 328 | 43.6%143 W · 185 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a0…dab5backed Yes | 9c | 305$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.4 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 47cpaid | +253%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb36…9545backed Yes | 29c | 300$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe797…2b36backed No | 71c | 225$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.75 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9dd…b525backed No | 62c | 199.99$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.99 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…f37fbacked Yes | 29c | 196.55$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.55 | 61 | 62.3%38 W · 23 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf6…513abacked Yes | 29c | 150$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.5 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | +3.7wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c43…b289backed Yes | 57c | 128$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.13 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +69.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7d24…a93fbacked No | 67c | 74.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.24 | 71 | 66.2%47 W · 24 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7529…5cd7backed Yes | 32c | 71.47$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.87 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc26d…63f2backed Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +86.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x588d…099abacked No | 75c | 55$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.25 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf69…aa05backed Yes | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.63 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | -3.4wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x90e0…ff4cbacked No | 77c | 50$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 56 | 5.4%3 W · 53 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | +97.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed No | 80c | 46$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.58 | 147 | 40.8%60 W · 87 L | -14.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed Yes | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 88 | 56.8%50 W · 38 L | -7.5wins | -0.09per pick | 65cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x90dc…5ba6backed Yes | 73c | 27.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd307…f2b5backed Yes | 70c | 24.86$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.46 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 65cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06e0…0b63backed No | 71c | 14.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Lazio vs. Torino end in a draw?this page
- Will Lazio win on 2025-10-04?No won
- Will Torino win on 2025-10-04?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.