Ligue 1 · resolved market
Will Olympique de Marseille vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe333edd11fa5134ef086c0965b42565f24850a465e0f80a54c831edb3983d241
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,622
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,265
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,622 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 24c | 5,923$1,421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,421.13 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x040d…1a5ebacked Yes | 30c | 5,200$1,543 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,542.5 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -5.6wins | -0.33per pick | 57cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 75c | 2,987$2,243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$743.16 | 215 | 60%129 W · 86 L | +15.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf519…906bbacked No | 76c | 2,500$1,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600 | 143 | 46.9%67 W · 76 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Yes | 23c | 2,500$575 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$575 | 34 | 20.6%7 W · 27 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94fb…d6cbbacked Yes | 23c | 1,617$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365.68 | 49 | 32.7%16 W · 33 L | +4.9wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 23c | 775$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.25 | 231 | 53.2%123 W · 108 L | +16.2wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed No | 75c | 552$415 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.12 | 246 | 42.3%104 W · 142 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed No | 70c | 547.14$383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.14 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | -4.1wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ada…2f28backed No | 78c | 525.02$412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.46 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1256…fc6cbacked Yes | 25c | 504$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aef…9337backed No | 70c | 500$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88de…1091backed Yes | 23c | 440$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.2 | 68 | 35.3%24 W · 44 L | +6.5wins | +0.10per pick | 26cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x968a…6842backed Yes | 24c | 417$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.08 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.22per pick | 44cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 70c | 378.84$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.11 | 1,415 | 40.8%577 W · 838 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Yes | 17c | 377.66$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.88 | 260 | 40.4%105 W · 155 L | -6.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0ff…ca90backed No | 74c | 354.31$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.12 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +46.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddc…f21cbacked Yes | 26c | 354.31$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3745…9aefbacked Yes | 24c | 333.33$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6155…a903backed No | 77c | 324.68$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46d0…b129backed Yes | 23c | 301$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.23 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +145%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdab…088abacked No | 77c | 300$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 76c | 258$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.84 | 162 | 42%68 W · 94 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…bf77backed Yes | 24c | 212.5$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc81…0ababacked Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc71e…f450backed No | 77c | 200$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89d1…6448backed Yes | 26c | 192.31$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Yes | 23c | 112.72$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.93 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c52…5e82backed Yes | 25c | 112.72$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.18 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bef…f80abacked Yes | 24c | 104.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc64f…3577backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Yes | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 143 | 40.6%58 W · 85 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d22…3aabbacked Yes | 30c | 83.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5faf…76dfbacked No | 77c | 80$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +63%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb27b…5d6bbacked Yes | 23c | 80$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +163.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82a3…5f75backed Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23de…bdb1backed Yes | 29c | 59.54$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x056a…611fbacked Yes | 24c | 50.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.08 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Yes | 23c | 44$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 229 | 27.5%63 W · 166 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x230b…d3d6backed No | 77c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 72cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26ab…41c1backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa4…17c0backed No | 74c | 38.46$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked No | 75c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 69 | 60.9%42 W · 27 L | +5.4wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb48…1308backed No | 72c | 21.36$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 284 | 48.2%137 W · 147 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb32b…522dbacked No | 77c | 16.23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.73 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 70cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Olympique de Marseille vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC end in a draw?this page
- Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2025-09-21?Yes won
- Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-09-21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.