Ligue 1 · resolved market
Will Toulouse FC win on 2025-09-27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaeabd9776cf23803da10702e500bd7942564e063db16faae478f35aa475451bd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $295,668
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $300,319
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $295,668 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked No | 45c | 81,575$36,686 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44,888.89 | 69 | 60.9%42 W · 27 L | +5.4wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe38e…c29dbacked Yes | 57c | 57,864$33,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33,049.74 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Yes | 55c | 32,053$17,584 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,584.22 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 45c | 26,580$11,998 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,581.84 | 215 | 60%129 W · 86 L | +15.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9f13…e0fdbacked Yes | 55c | 18,293$10,061 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,061.21 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 55c | 10,724$5,887 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,886.86 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked No | 43c | 10,000$4,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,700 | 133 | 48.9%65 W · 68 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed No | 43c | 10,000$4,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,749.99 | 144 | 52.1%75 W · 69 L | +6.8wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea64…f2a2backed Yes | 57c | 7,507$4,276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,275.86 | 47 | 72.3%34 W · 13 L | +7.4wins | +0.16per pick | 57cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Yes | 57c | 6,002$3,421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,421.38 | 82 | 42.7%35 W · 47 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd267…9dc6backed No | 44c | 4,704$2,070 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,634.13 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | +7.1wins | +0.16per pick | 35cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed No | 42c | 3,998$1,679 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,318.63 | 246 | 42.3%104 W · 142 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Yes | 56c | 2,980$1,669 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,668.74 | 231 | 51.5%119 W · 112 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3eac…4c8cbacked No | 47c | 2,470$1,161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,309.21 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea8…1fbfbacked No | 73c | 1,686$1,234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$452.07 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5532…c6dbbacked No | 45c | 1,634$733 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$900.68 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked No | 45c | 1,490$671 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$819.7 | 190 | 55.8%106 W · 84 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f4…55c1backed Yes | 14c | 1,101$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 60c | 984.68$586 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$398.72 | 1,415 | 40.8%577 W · 838 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed No | 43c | 978.97$422 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$557.26 | 202 | 32.7%66 W · 136 L | -10.9wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked No | 45c | 933$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$513.15 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf142…57e7backed No | 45c | 900$405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$495 | 146 | 54.1%79 W · 67 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa561…e677backed Yes | 23c | 881.21$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…ff0ebacked Yes | 58c | 517.24$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -3.9wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…0b51backed No | 45c | 500$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275 | 46 | 28.3%13 W · 33 L | -4.7wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd483…756dbacked Yes | 61c | 493.44$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88de…1091backed No | 45c | 480$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264 | 68 | 35.3%24 W · 44 L | +6.5wins | +0.10per pick | 26cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked No | 44c | 426$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.56 | 231 | 53.2%123 W · 108 L | +16.2wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad6a…9dbdbacked No | 45c | 340.38$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.21 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Yes | 57c | 300$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -4.3wins | -0.16per pick | 53cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed No | 43c | 299.99$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171 | 71 | 46.5%33 W · 38 L | +5.3wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e10…70f4backed No | 45c | 296.26$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.34 | 90 | 51.1%46 W · 44 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30a0…a458backed Yes | 53c | 200$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -3.0wins | -0.21per pick | 57cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8ee5…ca6bbacked Yes | 57c | 177.19$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…f37fbacked No | 43c | 171.47$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.63 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c82…b56bbacked Yes | 61c | 163.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefe7…0cdfbacked Yes | 57c | 138.6$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26ab…41c1backed Yes | 56c | 125$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed No | 43c | 119.99$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.39 | 116 | 44.8%52 W · 64 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61cd…541ebacked No | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.38 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8239…ddd7backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fd8…df1cbacked Yes | 26c | 92.19$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc1…ec92backed Yes | 55c | 92.07$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.64 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedb1…3fddbacked Yes | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb7d4…962dbacked Yes | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 71cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf699…07e1backed No | 61c | 85.54$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.36 | 89 | 76.4%68 W · 21 L | +17.9wins | +0.20per pick | 56cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xb125…69ebbacked Yes | 20c | 83.77$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2272…2e9cbacked Yes | 54c | 79.16$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.75 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Yes | 57c | 70.19$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 143 | 40.6%58 W · 85 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…7f7bbacked Yes | 57c | 70.18$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe505…fadbbacked No | 46c | 65.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.22 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9193…c86cbacked Yes | 58c | 55.17$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 62cpaid | -51%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x63aa…c5c8backed Yes | 46c | 54.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -23%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaf6…8e9abacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x583f…2dabbacked No | 70c | 45.53$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.66 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 40cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Yes | 27c | 42.62$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5f…84bfbacked Yes | 56c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 67cpaid | -19%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8de5…e8bbbacked Yes | 57c | 36.84$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.27per pick | 65cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1a54…e581backed Yes | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.17per pick | 62cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16b3…403bbacked Yes | 53c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked No | 44c | 29.26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.3 | 82 | 63.4%52 W · 30 L | +6.2wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed No | 73c | 27.15$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.32 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bfd…3462backed Yes | 55c | 27.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc31e…8435backed Yes | 56c | 20.43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd410…3a1bbacked Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 43 | 65.1%28 W · 15 L | +4.3wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x051d…6980backed No | 77c | 19.49$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Toulouse FC win on 2025-09-27?this page
- Will FC Nantes win on 2025-09-27?No won
- Will Toulouse FC vs. FC Nantes end in a draw?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.