Ligue 1 · resolved market
Will FC Nantes win on 2025-09-27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2f41e220f43c85ba6cf5bd2cad4dfb86b0e43fe1b7ae2116e6fe357b9c8dd6e1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,803
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,915
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,803 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Yes | 17c | 10,000$1,650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,650 | 144 | 52.1%75 W · 69 L | +6.8wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Yes | 18c | 7,000$1,260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,260 | 133 | 48.9%65 W · 68 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1d9…4ce3backed Yes | 20c | 3,500$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a87…4e00backed Yes | 18c | 3,000$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 79c | 2,402$1,899 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$503.01 | 215 | 60%129 W · 86 L | +15.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf142…57e7backed No | 78c | 1,655$1,286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369 | 146 | 54.1%79 W · 67 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27a9…8781backed Yes | 60c | 935.32$557 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$557.22 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf641…7b6fbacked Yes | 57c | 870.24$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$494.85 | 150 | 71.3%107 W · 43 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea8…1fbfbacked Yes | 51c | 735.15$377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.69 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x71cd…912dbacked Yes | 3c | 590$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | +5.1wins | +0.20per pick | 11cpaid | +204.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Yes | 19c | 518.95$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.3 | 202 | 32.7%66 W · 136 L | -10.9wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e10…70f4backed No | 54c | 500.24$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.75 | 90 | 51.1%46 W · 44 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 42c | 495.32$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.14 | 1,415 | 40.8%577 W · 838 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88de…1091backed Yes | 20c | 480$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 68 | 35.3%24 W · 44 L | +6.5wins | +0.10per pick | 26cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e2…4459backed No | 53c | 292.11$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.29 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.6wins | -0.32per pick | 57cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Yes | 19c | 260.25$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 70 | 31.4%22 W · 48 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 28c | 250$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 162 | 42%68 W · 94 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…0a37backed No | 50c | 156.89$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.31 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | +4.2wins | +0.10per pick | 39cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x051d…6980backed No | 61c | 110$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.7 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | +4.5wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 82 | 42.7%35 W · 47 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64ae…ead9backed No | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 96 | 41.7%40 W · 56 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Yes | 17c | 59$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 229 | 27.5%63 W · 166 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4591…df1bbacked No | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 64cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38a0…16e9backed Yes | 20c | 55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…4f2abacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x663a…75babacked No | 47c | 49.6$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +114.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2230…a66cbacked No | 50c | 25.6$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.89 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -3.0wins | -0.21per pick | 57cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Yes | 56c | 21.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 351 | 57%200 W · 151 L | +15.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC Nantes win on 2025-09-27?this page
- Will Toulouse FC vs. FC Nantes end in a draw?Yes won
- Will Toulouse FC win on 2025-09-27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.