Ligue 1 · resolved market
Will Toulouse FC vs. FC Nantes end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5c23436dacb10e6ca5c0e2adcdf21cf5cbea32dc6d7f280de71718763456ea48
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,592
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,106
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,592 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcef7…e7d7backed No | 64c | 3,000$1,920 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,920 | 75 | 46.7%35 W · 40 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Yes | 36c | 3,000$1,080 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,920 | 82 | 42.7%35 W · 47 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 37c | 2,138$801 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,336.91 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 18c | 2,115$377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$377.31 | 215 | 60%129 W · 86 L | +15.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 19c | 1,981$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.48 | 1,415 | 40.8%577 W · 838 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc70e…7cd6backed No | 12c | 855.69$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Yes | 38c | 789$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$489.18 | 351 | 57%200 W · 151 L | +15.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea8…1fbfbacked No | 60c | 533.17$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.36 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d24…a93fbacked No | 70c | 287$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.9 | 70 | 68.6%48 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x051d…6980backed No | 20c | 211$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.6 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf519…906bbacked Yes | 26c | 204.55$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.37 | 143 | 46.9%67 W · 76 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a4c…6579backed No | 18c | 200$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c96…f165backed Yes | 43c | 186.05$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.05 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0cf3…2b57backed No | 18c | 83.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb7…04d8backed Yes | 27c | 55.56$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.56 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53f9…e920backed Yes | 44c | 31.82$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.82 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +57.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Yes | 79c | 31$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 260 | 40.4%105 W · 155 L | -6.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8004…8125backed No | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb32b…522dbacked No | 74c | 16.89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 70cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Toulouse FC vs. FC Nantes end in a draw?this page
- Will FC Nantes win on 2025-09-27?No won
- Will Toulouse FC win on 2025-09-27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.