Mls · resolved market
Will Seattle Sounders FC win on 2025-10-04?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8f51b5e9f3d5f5937f5642cd45e23d788773424b6f34318ac43bbb5b2c0ed7cd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,960
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,529
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,960 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Yes | 62c | 25,000$15,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,500 | 109 | 45%49 W · 60 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 35c | 17,659$6,263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,263.27 | 257 | 61.5%158 W · 99 L | +17.4wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xea64…f2a2backed No | 38c | 5,786$2,199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,198.52 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 41c | 4,522$1,837 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,837.14 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Yes | 56c | 2,000$1,120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$880 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Yes | 74c | 1,827$1,356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470.95 | 161 | 37.9%61 W · 100 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42b5…0dd9backed No | 38c | 1,160$441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440.8 | 49 | 18.4%9 W · 40 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 60c | 804.54$483 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.55 | 151 | 44.4%67 W · 84 L | -11.3wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed No | 28c | 549.92$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.58 | 102 | 55.9%57 W · 45 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x03f7…c0ccbacked No | 33c | 403.97$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.37 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -2.7wins | -0.16per pick | 39cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf351…5364backed Yes | 80c | 395.24$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Yes | 57c | 369.24$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.77 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed No | 38c | 245$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.1 | 105 | 33.3%35 W · 70 L | -10.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -43%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4781…336dbacked No | 43c | 235.23$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.7 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2619…9f4ebacked No | 37c | 233.83$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.52 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed Yes | 57c | 199.99$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26ab…41c1backed No | 29c | 183.33$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed No | 38c | 181$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.78 | 206 | 48.5%100 W · 106 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked No | 39c | 172.9$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.74 | 132 | 57.6%76 W · 56 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb33…ef60backed No | 40c | 149.7$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8081…ae28backed Yes | 80c | 125.69$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7292…6bd3backed No | 40c | 125.05$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.02 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed No | 40c | 125$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 141 | 29.8%42 W · 99 L | -9.1wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 71c | 116.67$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 413 | 39%161 W · 252 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8e…62bebacked No | 40c | 116.23$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5693…71fdbacked Yes | 59c | 101.69$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.69 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc47…15d4backed Yes | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46d0…b129backed No | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ba4…f493backed Yes | 63c | 98.13$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6425…b235backed Yes | 63c | 81.75$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +59.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…a5b1backed Yes | 63c | 80.49$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked No | 38c | 64.55$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.53 | 48 | 29.2%14 W · 34 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0ef4…4e4ebacked Yes | 68c | 55$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -27%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Yes | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 318 | 34.9%111 W · 207 L | -14.2wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 206 | 41.3%85 W · 121 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a26…7300backed No | 33c | 45.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a2…7f83backed Yes | 61c | 40.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.98 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +52.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Yes | 67c | 29.94$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.94 | 160 | 61.3%98 W · 62 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfdb…7a75backed Yes | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23b7…32a7backed Yes | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fb…ee11backed Yes | 57c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +76.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed No | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 165 | 31.5%52 W · 113 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d40…f95abacked Yes | 77c | 18.1$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.16 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Seattle Sounders FC win on 2025-10-04?this page
- Will Portland Timbers win on 2025-10-04?No won
- Will Seattle Sounders FC vs. Portland Timbers end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.