Bundesliga · resolved market
Will SV 07 Elversberg win on 2025-12-06?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x225d8ed550eecdbc7380d0b7c80e3342e32444f807da82d29b89e82b405a1b8c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,304
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,229
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,304 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Yes | 32c | 20,000$6,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,600 | 114 | 45.6%52 W · 62 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 55c | 13,691$7,577 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,577.05 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb230…4193backed No | 68c | 9,491$6,454 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,454.16 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 45c | 1,723$779 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$944.6 | 511 | 36.8%188 W · 323 L | -28.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 44c | 1,110$489 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$620.14 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6036…d2ccbacked No | 67c | 800$536 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$536 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe671…a682backed Yes | 46c | 777$357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$419.58 | 158 | 47.5%75 W · 83 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb89…46f1backed No | 57c | 766.25$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$439.89 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Yes | 45c | 468.98$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.69 | 195 | 44.6%87 W · 108 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda70…828bbacked Yes | 41c | 306.68$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.94 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26ab…41c1backed Yes | 37c | 268.72$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.72 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +3.8wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9020…2cfcbacked Yes | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.39 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +3.9wins | +0.15per pick | 29cpaid | +51.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed No | 68c | 200$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136 | 168 | 50%84 W · 84 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc514…e9b4backed Yes | 41c | 185.13$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.32 | 107 | 28%30 W · 77 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 43c | 149.09$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.54 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Yes | 33c | 127.4$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 446 | 55.4%247 W · 199 L | +22.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x98e0…bf01backed No | 67c | 109.55$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.4 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 71cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6b…075fbacked Yes | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 99 | 51.5%51 W · 48 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e8f…6b61backed Yes | 49c | 74.07$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.11 | 55 | 32.7%18 W · 37 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82d3…08bcbacked Yes | 46c | 63.37$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.37 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7181…1b0abacked Yes | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 52c | 34.77$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.91 | 381 | 51.4%196 W · 185 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed No | 64c | 27.39$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.56 | 447 | 49.4%221 W · 226 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54a3…102cbacked No | 58c | 21.15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccc…e7e8backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…4936backed No | 71c | 14.7$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 88 | 52.3%46 W · 42 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SV 07 Elversberg win on 2025-12-06?this page
- Will SC Paderborn 07 vs. SV 07 Elversberg end in a draw?No won
- Will SC Paderborn 07 win on 2025-12-06?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.