La Liga · resolved market
Villarreal vs. Getafe: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6cd3c40e28895c784e0b2cd51dffddfa29ebd55c3b4b14dd3f30284bfe84c1cd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $125,023
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $120,258
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $125,023 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9cd5…ed17backed Over | 44c | 46,935$20,651 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,651.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6ee…697bbacked Under | 57c | 30,000$17,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,900 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -4.6wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 29c | 14,952$4,348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,347.82 | 691 | 42.5%294 W · 397 L | -21.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -14%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked Over | 43c | 12,665$5,446 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,446.15 | 94 | 50%47 W · 47 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 61c | 9,653$5,923 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,730.43 | 908 | 43.6%396 W · 512 L | -9.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 44c | 4,899$2,156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,155.75 | 304 | 46.7%142 W · 162 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7087…c61fbacked Over | 44c | 4,000$1,760 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,760 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc87b…51d4backed Over | 45c | 1,778$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e33…afb3backed Over | 35c | 1,651$572 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$572.04 | 75 | 53.3%40 W · 35 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Over | 43c | 1,600$695 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$695 | 186 | 50%93 W · 93 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…ff0ebacked Over | 44c | 1,459$646 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$646 | 56 | 58.9%33 W · 23 L | +4.3wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0529…da98backed Over | 45c | 988.89$445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$445 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 56c | 970.14$543 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$426.91 | 532 | 46.1%245 W · 287 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d9d…e6c3backed Under | 57c | 877.19$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$377.19 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 56c | 834.5$464 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370.93 | 1,018 | 53.1%541 W · 477 L | -24.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x938c…e3dbbacked Under | 57c | 833.33$475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$358.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 66c | 818.35$539 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.41 | 4,740 | 47%2,230 W · 2,510 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 60c | 746.2$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.25 | 3,449 | 43%1,484 W · 1,965 L | +32.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7681…ac03backed Over | 44c | 600$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266 | 95 | 30.5%29 W · 66 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Over | 42c | 511.8$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.29 | 252 | 48.4%122 W · 130 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x433f…a0dcbacked Over | 50c | 508$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.92 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 24cpaid | -76%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Over | 43c | 500$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215 | 640 | 46.9%300 W · 340 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x924f…d049backed Over | 54c | 462.2$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.59 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +3.6wins | +0.16per pick | 41cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x25c2…e0cfbacked Over | 45c | 451.15$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.7 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Under | 55c | 444$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.8 | 95 | 42.1%40 W · 55 L | -8.8wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ab…f282backed Under | 55c | 422.66$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.2 | 65 | 46.2%30 W · 35 L | -4.8wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d3…f2bcbacked Over | 43c | 399.96$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.98 | 128 | 45.3%58 W · 70 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33a7…960dbacked Over | 29c | 386.99$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.45 | 138 | 24.6%34 W · 104 L | -6.8wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f8…09f7backed Over | 28c | 357.14$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.26per pick | 43cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked Over | 44c | 341.55$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.28 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa65b…0419backed Under | 61c | 329.28$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.28 | 23 | 73.9%17 W · 6 L | +2.7wins | +0.12per pick | 62cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8889…a9d1backed Over | 53c | 321.13$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 110 | 49.1%54 W · 56 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 47c | 317.55$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.3 | 1,798 | 51.4%924 W · 874 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa35f…b58fbacked Over | 46c | 235.39$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.9 | 87 | 32.2%28 W · 59 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x347c…525abacked Over | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 75 | 34.7%26 W · 49 L | -5.3wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d4…08d0backed Over | 46c | 220$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.2 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2d1…84a2backed Under | 56c | 200$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 76 | 44.7%34 W · 42 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf41…bfd4backed Over | 47c | 181.17$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Under | 44c | 170.8$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.4 | 307 | 43.6%134 W · 173 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Under | 57c | 157.89$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.89 | 208 | 57.7%120 W · 88 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a8d…31eabacked Over | 44c | 140.91$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 494 | 47%232 W · 262 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x024e…2e48backed Over | 45c | 110$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6b…075fbacked Under | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 85 | 50.6%43 W · 42 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Over | 35c | 99.87$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.03 | 299 | 46.5%139 W · 160 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Over | 43c | 90$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.7 | 791 | 33%261 W · 530 L | -8.9wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0052…4d9ebacked Over | 79c | 80$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.93 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26ab…41c1backed Over | 47c | 68.09$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb052…7adabacked Over | 45c | 66.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x312d…6814backed Over | 27c | 61.54$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.62 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…3583backed Over | 43c | 60$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5825…4ffbbacked Over | 25c | 56.34$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.09 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca96…a629backed Under | 72c | 55.56$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.56 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…4936backed Over | 38c | 48.27$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 121 | 56.2%68 W · 53 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84f2…1e32backed Under | 59c | 45.76$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.76 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 64cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x934f…5bd8backed Over | 25c | 43.66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe026…0404backed Under | 57c | 43.54$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.72 | 71 | 54.9%39 W · 32 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe48c…163abacked Over | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 225 | 53.8%121 W · 104 L | +12.8wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb5e…82e7backed Over | 40c | 37.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Over | 37c | 34.93$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.01 | 559 | 41.1%230 W · 329 L | -11.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18e5…260cbacked Over | 45c | 33.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Over | 70c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 82 | 41.5%34 W · 48 L | -5.6wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x735a…3ef2backed Under | 57c | 26.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 99 | 49.5%49 W · 50 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e75…0143backed Under | 69c | 26.28$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.13 | 68 | 36.8%25 W · 43 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e24…2e8ebacked Over | 44c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42a0…3762backed Over | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Villarreal vs. Getafe: O/U 2.5this page
- Spread: Villarreal (-1.5)Villarreal won
- Villarreal vs. Getafe: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Villarreal vs. Getafe: O/U 1.5Over won
- Villarreal vs. Getafe: O/U 3.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.