Bundesliga · resolved market
Will 1. FC Heidenheim vs. Werder Bremen end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcfc9ab50dbddd831e917d81930f98401b3b0248fbc436669e5985732866c9a14
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,259
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,557
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,259 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 47c | 7,011$3,304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,304.42 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7197…14c8backed Yes | 31c | 6,271$1,939 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,331.89 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Yes | 79c | 4,512$3,565 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$947.57 | 148 | 46.6%69 W · 79 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 70c | 3,043$2,120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,120.39 | 191 | 53.9%103 W · 88 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad46…65a7backed Yes | 77c | 2,498$1,923 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$574.84 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a4…819fbacked Yes | 29c | 1,948$565 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,383.28 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked No | 73c | 1,256$919 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$918.5 | 77 | 58.4%45 W · 32 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Yes | 36c | 1,000$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$640 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf699…07e1backed No | 69c | 341.12$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.3 | 104 | 63.5%66 W · 38 L | +9.8wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed No | 20c | 315.53$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.78 | 511 | 36.8%188 W · 323 L | -28.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Yes | 29c | 290$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.6 | 223 | 32.3%72 W · 151 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 34c | 235$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.42 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed No | 13c | 226.28$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.44 | 282 | 41.5%117 W · 165 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe8…0fedbacked No | 70c | 195.81$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.23 | 103 | 47.6%49 W · 54 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0cfa…b8f9backed No | 28c | 150$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 28c | 150$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 210 | 41.9%88 W · 122 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Yes | 28c | 142.86$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.86 | 199 | 43.2%86 W · 113 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26ab…41c1backed No | 73c | 136.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +3.8wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x16ce…b3dcbacked No | 75c | 133.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 42 | 61.9%26 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed No | 72c | 104.53$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.26 | 550 | 58.7%323 W · 227 L | +23.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 72c | 83.55$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.16 | 242 | 58.7%142 W · 100 L | +11.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ba…134ebacked Yes | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.43 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +3.0wins | +0.15per pick | 30cpaid | +47.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6073…d82fbacked Yes | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.97 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 40cpaid | +65.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Yes | 25c | 63.47$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.6 | 237 | 45.6%108 W · 129 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd2b…3e5bbacked No | 75c | 63.47$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.6 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 76cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b2c…5e10backed Yes | 29c | 51.72$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.72 | 112 | 50.9%57 W · 55 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5060…79c4backed Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.5 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8a4…333bbacked No | 22c | 45.09$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked No | 71c | 44.76$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.78 | 101 | 28.7%29 W · 72 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed No | 52c | 31.33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.33 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c43…b289backed Yes | 73c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.8wins | +0.26per pick | 56cpaid | +68.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcba6…bb05backed No | 71c | 25.94$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.42 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed No | 71c | 21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 256 | 59.4%152 W · 104 L | +9.8wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 1. FC Heidenheim vs. Werder Bremen end in a draw?this page
- Will 1. FC Heidenheim win on 2025-10-18?No won
- Will Werder Bremen win on 2025-10-18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.