Bundesliga · resolved market
Will 1. FC Heidenheim win on 2025-10-18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x62188e55c10910d9a7f269eea4bc38ad33e0ed0990d065f273eb02c6ea3fb824
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,760
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,034
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,760 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb44e…c2c6backed Yes | 36c | 10,000$3,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,600 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 66cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11be…cbabbacked No | 66c | 10,000$6,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,400 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7197…14c8backed Yes | 27c | 9,847$2,683 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,682.58 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Yes | 34c | 8,076$2,746 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,745.76 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 71c | 5,389$3,822 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,567.85 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 66c | 4,154$2,756 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,397.68 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 59c | 2,048$1,203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$844.93 | 191 | 53.9%103 W · 88 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked No | 65c | 2,030$1,320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$710.5 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 52cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed No | 64c | 675$432 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243 | 511 | 36.8%188 W · 323 L | -28.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf699…07e1backed No | 72c | 636.99$457 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.75 | 104 | 63.5%66 W · 38 L | +9.8wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed No | 62c | 607.89$379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf641…7b6fbacked No | 76c | 487$371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.54 | 226 | 69%156 W · 70 L | +13.1wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xed61…9aa3backed Yes | 17c | 426.15$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.46 | 150 | 64%96 W · 54 L | +25.0wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +53.3%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked Yes | 41c | 365.85$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 380 | 55.8%212 W · 168 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 28c | 299.15$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.74 | 282 | 41.5%117 W · 165 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5060…79c4backed Yes | 38c | 292$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.76 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1346…8502backed Yes | 38c | 263.16$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 32c | 231.64$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.23 | 193 | 47.2%91 W · 102 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa21d…a769backed Yes | 39c | 220.5$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…625dbacked Yes | 30c | 216.22$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.55 | 66 | 39.4%26 W · 40 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd523…0aa4backed Yes | 37c | 200$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb125…69ebbacked Yes | 12c | 180$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 34 | 20.6%7 W · 27 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03cf…f27dbacked Yes | 36c | 172.22$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Yes | 24c | 171.33$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.87 | 223 | 32.3%72 W · 151 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed No | 67c | 144.33$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.63 | 45 | 57.8%26 W · 19 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94fb…d6cbbacked Yes | 32c | 127.7$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.72 | 74 | 23%17 W · 57 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06da…3181backed Yes | 40c | 125$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Yes | 33c | 123.65$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e10…70f4backed Yes | 19c | 121.5$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.32 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe8…0fedbacked No | 65c | 118.63$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.93 | 103 | 47.6%49 W · 54 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16ce…b3dcbacked Yes | 38c | 105.26$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 42 | 61.9%26 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 65c | 92$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.2 | 242 | 58.7%142 W · 100 L | +11.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x189d…147cbacked No | 66c | 75.76$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.76 | 81 | 69.1%56 W · 25 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d24…a93fbacked No | 70c | 72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 88 | 70.5%62 W · 26 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…f37fbacked No | 68c | 52.21$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.71 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedb1…3fddbacked Yes | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed No | 65c | 45$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.54 | 256 | 59.4%152 W · 104 L | +9.8wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c59…4d2ebacked Yes | 36c | 43.17$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x784b…aa7bbacked Yes | 33c | 43$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea48…2c08backed No | 68c | 39.71$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.71 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 62cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e7e…425ebacked Yes | 38c | 39.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…7b65backed No | 68c | 30.88$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.88 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +50.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe36d…5cedbacked No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 1. FC Heidenheim win on 2025-10-18?this page
- Will 1. FC Heidenheim vs. Werder Bremen end in a draw?Yes won
- Will Werder Bremen win on 2025-10-18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.