Bundesliga · resolved market
Will Werder Bremen win on 2025-10-18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe63a9f5aad921a6a46689106d8f7b5f4acb7b62dcd3d6b2e3e54a41649507360
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $102,686
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $97,547
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $102,686 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9f13…e0fdbacked No | 63c | 37,664$23,698 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,966.22 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.27per pick | 59cpaid | +55.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Yes | 28c | 15,000$4,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,200 | 114 | 45.6%52 W · 62 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ef…5232backed Yes | 43c | 9,380$4,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 40c | 9,115$3,622 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,622.44 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3151…0977backed No | 72c | 5,437$3,915 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,522.36 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94fb…d6cbbacked Yes | 37c | 5,100$1,891 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,890.83 | 74 | 23%17 W · 57 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 31c | 4,648$1,453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,453.22 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a4…819fbacked Yes | 37c | 3,649$1,350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,350 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…9974backed Yes | 43c | 2,000$860 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$860 | 86 | 37.2%32 W · 54 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf142…57e7backed Yes | 38c | 2,000$760 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$760 | 230 | 46.5%107 W · 123 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4c3…3e00backed Yes | 41c | 1,707$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Yes | 29c | 1,682$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$479.94 | 191 | 53.9%103 W · 88 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed No | 57c | 1,614$922 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$691.67 | 237 | 45.6%108 W · 129 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Yes | 36c | 1,474$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530.5 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 52cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked No | 58c | 1,428$828 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$599.65 | 95 | 52.6%50 W · 45 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Yes | 37c | 1,261$467 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$466.57 | 339 | 45.7%155 W · 184 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ed…f9c8backed Yes | 38c | 1,194$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Yes | 16c | 1,061$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.43 | 148 | 46.6%69 W · 79 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked No | 57c | 1,011$581 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$430.16 | 193 | 47.2%91 W · 102 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed Yes | 37c | 1,003$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371 | 227 | 47.1%107 W · 120 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb36…9545backed Yes | 37c | 1,000$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedae…584fbacked Yes | 37c | 1,000$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x63af…0a25backed Yes | 37c | 1,000$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a32…6d7ebacked Yes | 37c | 1,000$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad46…65a7backed Yes | 61c | 824.6$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Yes | 37c | 675.68$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 188 | 40.4%76 W · 112 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x71cd…912dbacked Yes | 10c | 555$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.5 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | +2.3wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | +285.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Yes | 70c | 532.24$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.57 | 550 | 58.7%323 W · 227 L | +23.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed No | 38c | 499.93$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.64 | 223 | 32.3%72 W · 151 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddca…0ddbbacked Yes | 40c | 450$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe57f…6147backed No | 60c | 450$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Yes | 36c | 300$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 110 | 36.4%40 W · 70 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc648…259cbacked Yes | 37c | 300$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8480…293ebacked No | 59c | 300$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.5 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa52e…e2c4backed No | 59c | 300$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x865f…e88ebacked Yes | 38c | 265.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.12 | 343 | 42%144 W · 199 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf641…7b6fbacked Yes | 58c | 261.9$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.11 | 226 | 69%156 W · 70 L | +13.1wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf699…07e1backed Yes | 31c | 230.28$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.89 | 104 | 63.5%66 W · 38 L | +9.8wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x40ac…ee4bbacked Yes | 41c | 222$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.02 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…f37fbacked No | 59c | 176.27$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.27 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03cf…f27dbacked Yes | 37c | 172.97$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed No | 59c | 161.22$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.94 | 511 | 36.8%188 W · 323 L | -28.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99d4…bbeebacked Yes | 41c | 121.95$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1947…94bcbacked No | 59c | 120.34$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.34 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 24c | 120$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.32 | 282 | 41.5%117 W · 165 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 58c | 99.99$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 242 | 58.7%142 W · 100 L | +11.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed61…9aa3backed No | 41c | 82.66$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.77 | 150 | 64%96 W · 54 L | +25.0wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +53.3%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x87a4…953ebacked Yes | 61c | 81.97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -26%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21c1…692cbacked Yes | 37c | 81.08$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +3.7wins | +0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Yes | 40c | 79.45$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.78 | 101 | 28.7%29 W · 72 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 23c | 75$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 210 | 41.9%88 W · 122 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x735a…3ef2backed No | 60c | 75$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ee7…12c5backed No | 61c | 75$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.25 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe8…0fedbacked No | 64c | 63.66$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.73 | 103 | 47.6%49 W · 54 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe969…f658backed Yes | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1889…0714backed No | 58c | 51$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.41 | 70 | 52.9%37 W · 33 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6158…81bcbacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -5.5wins | -0.18per pick | 47cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2272…2e9cbacked Yes | 38c | 47.36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 74c | 44$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.6 | 98 | 46.9%46 W · 52 L | -5.7wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa0db…f685backed Yes | 37c | 36.32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x254f…2fb8backed Yes | 37c | 32.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9999…9868backed Yes | 33c | 31$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed No | 42c | 28.72$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.56 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fba…1404backed Yes | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 72cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc333…b048backed Yes | 69c | 21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Werder Bremen win on 2025-10-18?this page
- Will 1. FC Heidenheim vs. Werder Bremen end in a draw?Yes won
- Will 1. FC Heidenheim win on 2025-10-18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.