Other European Leagues · resolved market
Will FC Twente '65 vs. AFC Ajax end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0521fb70b479ca8d76ffc54acfe147a840312d63e13cd593e1984e0d02e4abe7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,650
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,171
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,650 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x330b…69f1backed Yes | 28c | 1,786$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 72c | 1,758$1,266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$491.65 | 464 | 54.3%252 W · 212 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 25c | 968$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.44 | 7,889 | 45.4%3,579 W · 4,310 L | +11.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xade8…b0bdbacked No | 73c | 749.23$549 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.4 | 110 | 54.5%60 W · 50 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed No | 76c | 519.18$393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.32 | 133 | 47.4%63 W · 70 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fa2…cf15backed Yes | 28c | 501.08$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.67 | 51 | 37.3%19 W · 32 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb9…f6b3backed Yes | 28c | 436.14$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.12 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0727…ec27backed Yes | 22c | 363.64$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 72c | 341.79$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.67 | 5,604 | 42%2,356 W · 3,248 L | +75.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f91…9388backed Yes | 28c | 178.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39b5…cf5fbacked Yes | 21c | 142.86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +64.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x26ab…41c1backed No | 74c | 135.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.14 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 62cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked No | 75c | 133.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 351 | 54.7%192 W · 159 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4de9…4ab1backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1346…8502backed Yes | 28c | 92.86$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…191ebacked Yes | 27c | 85.52$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfeb4…0c34backed Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 33c | 80$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 853 | 40.1%342 W · 511 L | -12.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42ce…d2cbbacked Yes | 27c | 73.27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d24…a93fbacked No | 73c | 69$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.63 | 176 | 61.4%108 W · 68 L | -10.2wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16ce…b3dcbacked No | 75c | 66.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 114 | 58.8%67 W · 47 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe8…0fedbacked No | 72c | 44.99$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 166 | 47.6%79 W · 87 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC Twente '65 vs. AFC Ajax end in a draw?this page
- Will AFC Ajax win on 2025-10-26?Yes won
- Will FC Twente '65 win on 2025-10-26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.