Champions League · resolved market
Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc4ccc32f4c4da6c0f4cfacf23f58fe393a5c90bb5d744c6cbbb48067c2b0f9e4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Arsenal FCof Arsenal FC, FC Bayern München
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $59,063
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $68,799
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $59,063 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed FC Bayern München | 77c | 29,663$22,715 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22,714.78 | 1,994 | 43.9%875 W · 1,119 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1420…9daabacked Arsenal FC | 23c | 23,148$5,438 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,710.28 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45d9…a89abacked Arsenal FC | 22c | 9,513$2,129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,384.22 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | +3.8wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1815…2d9dbacked FC Bayern München | 76c | 3,745$2,830 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,829.69 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.5wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed FC Bayern München | 77c | 2,705$2,076 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,076.15 | 397 | 46.9%186 W · 211 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Arsenal FC | 23c | 1,656$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,272.03 | 48 | 27.1%13 W · 35 L | -3.9wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8511…ed83backed Arsenal FC | 30c | 1,648$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,147.75 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Arsenal FC | 25c | 1,064$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$802.19 | 380 | 43.9%167 W · 213 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Arsenal FC | 21c | 635$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$501.65 | 63 | 39.7%25 W · 38 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed FC Bayern München | 77c | 605.4$469 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$469.15 | 387 | 48.3%187 W · 200 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ea…f888backed FC Bayern München | 76c | 600$454 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$454 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -3.6wins | -0.24per pick | 50cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed Arsenal FC | 23c | 600$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460.5 | 226 | 47.3%107 W · 119 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Arsenal FC | 27c | 494.02$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360.63 | 460 | 48.5%223 W · 237 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ae8…5794backed Arsenal FC | 25c | 344$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +300%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Arsenal FC | 23c | 316.8$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.98 | 187 | 7%13 W · 174 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Arsenal FC | 23c | 306$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.11 | 217 | 45.6%99 W · 118 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked FC Bayern München | 74c | 283.27$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.62 | 178 | 53.9%96 W · 82 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x443d…017fbacked Arsenal FC | 24c | 278.66$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.66 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 36cpaid | +54.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e7d…eedcbacked Arsenal FC | 25c | 260$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 34cpaid | +163%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x26ab…41c1backed Arsenal FC | 25c | 238.37$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.07 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -6.3wins | -0.19per pick | 45cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe471…c87cbacked FC Bayern München | 13c | 200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 87 | 20.7%18 W · 69 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37d1…0c60backed Arsenal FC | 26c | 170.81$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.74per pick | 26cpaid | +284.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc6…bfb4backed Arsenal FC | 24c | 143.54$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.09 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.32per pick | 48cpaid | +84.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x15ba…f30dbacked FC Bayern München | 77c | 129.87$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06eb…1a5fbacked FC Bayern München | 79c | 126.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc0d…79cbbacked Arsenal FC | 24c | 125$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.36per pick | 47cpaid | +91.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Arsenal FC | 40c | 115$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.75 | 217 | 44.7%97 W · 120 L | -8.5wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1351…bebcbacked Arsenal FC | 24c | 100$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -4.0wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x86f0…be32backed FC Bayern München | 75c | 100$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -3.4wins | -0.16per pick | 64cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3c…93d7backed Arsenal FC | 22c | 95.45$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.45 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed FC Bayern München | 70c | 85.72$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.99 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x454f…bb79backed FC Bayern München | 76c | 80$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.8 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e51…9531backed Arsenal FC | 22c | 79.73$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.78per pick | 22cpaid | +354.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5833…4893backed FC Bayern München | 75c | 67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.25 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc310…0966backed FC Bayern München | 76c | 60.33$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.85 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 78cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x739d…d2ffbacked Arsenal FC | 25c | 60$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a5c…b3f2backed FC Bayern München | 79c | 55.85$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.98 | 127 | 51.2%65 W · 62 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ce…5462backed FC Bayern München | 76c | 50$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.13 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 68cpaid | -44%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x19c9…2e09backed FC Bayern München | 78c | 38.46$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Arsenal FC | 79c | 38.46$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 383 | 43.1%165 W · 218 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa54e…8302backed FC Bayern München | 76c | 31.58$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7795…1db8backed FC Bayern München | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe76f…39fcbacked FC Bayern München | 77c | 24.68$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b5d…b99abacked FC Bayern München | 79c | 19.62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe5dd…490bbacked FC Bayern München | 78c | 19.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -3.6wins | -0.26per pick | 69cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe026…0404backed FC Bayern München | 76c | 18.28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.98 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Arsenal FC | 79c | 16.34$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.38 | 1,511 | 40.2%608 W · 903 L | -6.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5)this page
- Arsenal FC vs. FC Bayern München: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Arsenal FC vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 1.5Over won
- Arsenal FC vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 2.5Over won
- Arsenal FC vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 3.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.