Champions League · resolved market
Arsenal FC vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x18632843a66bb139721838eaa3134278d33da7d85637517baaa9c788ac965df0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $45,257
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $50,199
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,257 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 66c | 9,806$6,426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,426.45 | 2,025 | 43.7%884 W · 1,141 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 68c | 6,264$4,232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,231.99 | 582 | 48.8%284 W · 298 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0353…c2ffbacked Under | 68c | 6,000$4,088 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,087.74 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -6.5wins | -0.16per pick | 45cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ed…6c8bbacked Over | 33c | 5,472$1,806 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,666.06 | 102 | 32.4%33 W · 69 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Over | 34c | 4,337$1,475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,862.54 | 67 | 58.2%39 W · 28 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33bb…98b3backed Over | 31c | 3,512$1,090 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,421.61 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x106b…4e8bbacked Over | 34c | 2,929$996 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,933.1 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d3e…783bbacked Over | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000 | 56 | 46.4%26 W · 30 L | -4.3wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe671…a682backed Over | 33c | 2,000$651 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,348.88 | 94 | 44.7%42 W · 52 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x775e…6541backed Over | 32c | 1,109$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$754.35 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 48c | 753.07$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364.17 | 460 | 48.5%223 W · 237 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb891…969bbacked Over | 32c | 692.93$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$471.19 | 98 | 43.9%43 W · 55 L | +9.1wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x495f…06b0backed Over | 50c | 600$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Over | 36c | 563.83$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$363.34 | 375 | 44%165 W · 210 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x011b…e44dbacked Under | 69c | 555$383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382.95 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 67cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3b…6ba5backed Over | 34c | 488.24$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.24 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | 0%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 51c | 437.2$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.72 | 1,543 | 40.1%618 W · 925 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc63c…afbcbacked Over | 51c | 393.98$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.05 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -51%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…f1ccbacked Over | 32c | 309.66$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.69 | 152 | 36.8%56 W · 96 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 68c | 304.61$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.88 | 397 | 46.9%186 W · 211 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe471…c87cbacked Over | 31c | 300$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207 | 87 | 20.7%18 W · 69 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Under | 67c | 300$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201 | 387 | 48.3%187 W · 200 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33a7…960dbacked Over | 34c | 294.12$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.12 | 66 | 33.3%22 W · 44 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8532…738bbacked Under | 68c | 280$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.4 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Under | 62c | 253.71$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.3 | 383 | 43.1%165 W · 218 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…e0e1backed Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 40cpaid | +152.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52a6…5f1cbacked Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x823d…8091backed Under | 57c | 192.72$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.85 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -3.8wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8b90…30b6backed Over | 52c | 192.48$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.48 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +2.8wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 61c | 181.45$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.86 | 338 | 51.5%174 W · 164 L | -8.8wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51d2…1462backed Over | 51c | 156.84$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.85 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 32c | 152$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.36 | 380 | 43.9%167 W · 213 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ea…f888backed Over | 33c | 120$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.44 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -3.6wins | -0.24per pick | 50cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2599…61cdbacked Under | 68c | 120$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.6 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc64a…74c0backed Under | 68c | 117.65$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.7wins | -0.17per pick | 54cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa35f…b58fbacked Over | 34c | 101.91$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.26 | 98 | 41.8%41 W · 57 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0e6…84a8backed Under | 68c | 100$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | -5.1wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x86f0…be32backed Under | 68c | 100$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -3.4wins | -0.16per pick | 64cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2078…2d66backed Over | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4588…d206backed Under | 67c | 99.98$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.99 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +3.8wins | +0.17per pick | 53cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x172d…6f3ebacked Over | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 96 | 53.1%51 W · 45 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x127a…ca3cbacked Over | 33c | 90.39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.56 | 80 | 51.3%41 W · 39 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed Over | 23c | 70$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.9 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +2.5wins | +0.11per pick | 28cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeecc…6930backed Over | 45c | 65.06$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.05 | 42 | 26.2%11 W · 31 L | -5.1wins | -0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3036…15c2backed Over | 55c | 65$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.25 | 76 | 39.5%30 W · 46 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9b…829ebacked Over | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.5 | 71 | 45.1%32 W · 39 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x024e…2e48backed Over | 34c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +3.4wins | +0.21per pick | 47cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6a5c…b3f2backed Under | 68c | 33.42$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.77 | 127 | 51.2%65 W · 62 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe947…2cf3backed Over | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 78 | 76.9%60 W · 18 L | +9.4wins | +0.12per pick | 65cpaid | +23%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3647…6250backed Over | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfcad…0a68backed Under | 68c | 28.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6562…4e48backed Over | 51c | 20.98$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.28 | 98 | 63.3%62 W · 36 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9c7…007dbacked Under | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2953…2ed5backed Under | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 76 | 56.6%43 W · 33 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd92a…31ebbacked Under | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -3.0wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Arsenal FC vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 3.5this page
- Arsenal FC vs. FC Bayern München: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Arsenal FC vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 1.5Over won
- Arsenal FC vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 2.5Over won
- Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5)Arsenal FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.