Champions League · resolved market
Arsenal FC vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x87d409a184761ba661a824caaa85435749ff3159b4c0db0071a6f3ffde8c506b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,117
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,720
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,117 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 21c | 8,462$1,787 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,786.79 | 1,994 | 43.9%875 W · 1,119 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 79c | 6,988$5,521 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,467.48 | 1,511 | 40.2%608 W · 903 L | -6.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 21c | 1,466$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.51 | 397 | 46.9%186 W · 211 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…3335backed Over | 79c | 1,015$802 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.25 | 74 | 56.8%42 W · 32 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71cd…912dbacked Under | 3c | 992.86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.79 | 132 | 32.6%43 W · 89 L | +12.1wins | +0.09per pick | 23cpaid | +172.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 24c | 817.04$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.19 | 582 | 48.8%284 W · 298 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa082…320abacked Over | 78c | 512.5$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4743…9a63backed Under | 14c | 458$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.12 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Over | 74c | 427.94$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.26 | 375 | 44%165 W · 210 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32f2…7830backed Over | 79c | 363.8$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c7…b39cbacked Over | 78c | 256$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Over | 78c | 250$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 63 | 39.7%25 W · 38 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ea…f888backed Over | 79c | 200$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -3.6wins | -0.24per pick | 50cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8c67…7813backed Over | 79c | 142.56$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.94 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76da…30a2backed Over | 79c | 126.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.58 | 61 | 44.3%27 W · 34 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfac0…3086backed Over | 79c | 126.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.58 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbaf5…a36fbacked Over | 79c | 126.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…6a7fbacked Over | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 77cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0672…19c3backed Over | 79c | 121.09$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Under | 11c | 112.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.36 | 383 | 43.1%165 W · 218 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b15…e32dbacked Over | 79c | 101.27$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.27 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06e0…7934backed Over | 79c | 101.27$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.27 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff8d…93fcbacked Over | 78c | 96.78$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.95 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5913…3bbebacked Over | 79c | 50.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.63 | 76 | 52.6%40 W · 36 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Under | 21c | 48$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 290 | 34.5%100 W · 190 L | +16.0wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…8dbebacked Over | 79c | 43.38$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.11 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcba6…bb05backed Over | 78c | 34.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 76 | 40.8%31 W · 45 L | -5.0wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -27%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x83d3…a973backed Over | 69c | 34.87$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.87 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9eae…98a5backed Over | 79c | 31.65$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 66 | 66.7%44 W · 22 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Over | 78c | 20.8$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.58 | 116 | 45.7%53 W · 63 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbeb…1b63backed Over | 79c | 17.53$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.68 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae75…e41cbacked Over | 79c | 15.19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.19 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08de…a0fdbacked Over | 79c | 13.43$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.82 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 73cpaid | -21%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Arsenal FC vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 1.5this page
- Arsenal FC vs. FC Bayern München: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Arsenal FC vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 2.5Over won
- Arsenal FC vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 3.5Over won
- Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5)Arsenal FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.