TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Champions League · resolved market

Arsenal FC vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 2.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$102,040
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$119,943

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $102,040 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 216 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Champions League
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x204f…5e14backed Under45c21,580$9,752 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,752.441,99443.9%875 W · 1,119 L+1.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-9.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4133…5e70backed Under45c18,852$8,490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,489.958248.8%284 W · 298 L+2.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-5.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x0d0f…a318backed Over54c10,000$5,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,599.994228.6%12 W · 30 L-2.5wins-0.06per pick34cpaid-26.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Under46c6,341$2,917 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,916.877146.5%33 W · 38 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick51cpaid+4.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Over56c5,743$3,191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,552.1838043.9%167 W · 213 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid+4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5303…d66ebacked Over55c5,409$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,409.041833.3%6 W · 12 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-17.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb3a1…3529backed Over55c4,197$2,308 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,888.551662.5%10 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick62cpaid+4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb1fe…9974backed Over56c4,000$2,240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,759.985038%19 W · 31 L-3.3wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-20.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x33e0…7d46backed Over56c3,818$2,120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,698.031338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.10per pick49cpaid-30%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc7ed…6c8bbacked Over55c3,525$1,938 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,586.0310232.4%33 W · 69 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-17%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x56c6…f706backed Over55c2,836$1,560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,276.361442.9%6 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-8.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0353…c2ffbacked Under50c2,240$1,121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1214027.5%11 W · 29 L-6.9wins-0.17per pick45cpaid-34.4%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x5bc4…f44fbacked Over54c2,200$1,196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,003.996443.8%28 W · 36 L-3.8wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-10.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x422c…9840backed Over48c2,066$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,066.33946.2%18 W · 21 L+4.3wins+0.11per pick35cpaid+43.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Under45c1,983$893 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$892.5839746.9%186 W · 211 L+9.7wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+10.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x908a…ad16backed Under45c1,886$846 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$846.0337544%165 W · 210 L+4.5wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-8.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e1d…6e74backed Over58c1,722$999 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$723.24475%3 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.13per pick62cpaid+33.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8e68…d99bbacked Under44c1,311$577 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$576.813151.1%67 W · 64 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa8ea…f888backed Under49c1,300$631 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6311526.7%4 W · 11 L-3.6wins-0.24per pick50cpaid-46.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x214d…cd09backed Over52c1,100$572 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$528560%3 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.26per pick34cpaid+53.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Under44c1,090$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$479.6133851.5%174 W · 164 L-8.8wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-8.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfbeb…5d4dbacked Under46c1,087$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500.01250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-18%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x18c4…106dbacked Over56c1,020$571 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$449.221266.7%8 W · 4 L+1.7wins+0.14per pick52cpaid+22.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x33bb…98b3backed Over53c1,000$530 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$470944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick38cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe671…a682backed Over52c999.98$520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$479.999444.7%42 W · 52 L+5.5wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+14.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Under36c901.12$321 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$320.651,51140.2%608 W · 903 L-6.7wins0.00per pick41cpaid-16%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd092…342abacked Over56c892.86$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$392.867065.7%46 W · 24 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick63cpaid+2.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x775e…6541backed Over54c750$405 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3453844.7%17 W · 21 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+23.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb47f…d792backed Over56c700.99$393 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$308.441747.1%8 W · 9 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick53cpaid+0.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5fef…5840backed Over54c648.15$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$298.152030%6 W · 14 L-3.5wins-0.17per pick47cpaid-32.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa916…4f30backed Over80c580.56$464 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.312147.6%10 W · 11 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-0.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x495f…06b0backed Over45c550$248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$302.53836.8%14 W · 24 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-16.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5bf4…952ebacked Over55c529$293 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$236.062147.6%10 W · 11 L-1.7wins-0.08per pick56cpaid-16.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x011b…e44dbacked Under45c518.26$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233.221553.3%8 W · 7 L-2.0wins-0.13per pick67cpaid-20.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Under46c503.88$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229.9138748.3%187 W · 200 L-0.4wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d01…0ab1backed Under44c500$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22019344%85 W · 108 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x38da…ab6fbacked Over56c500$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$220825%2 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-43.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Under18c495.89$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.0538343.1%165 W · 218 L-0.9wins0.00per pick43cpaid-12.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9048…07f2backed Over54c461.54$249 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212.312755.6%15 W · 12 L+0.1wins0.00per pick55cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x04b3…ad8dbacked Over56c423.78$237 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$186.515358.5%31 W · 22 L+8.1wins+0.15per pick43cpaid+33.3%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x889c…e375backed Under47c421.26$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2008354.2%45 W · 38 L+3.5wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+12.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x79cc…8026backed Over55c418.93$230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$188.726154.1%33 W · 28 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1147…da78backed Over55c400$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf42a…8470backed Over56c357.14$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.1410330.1%31 W · 72 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick29cpaid-11.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e3b…5a53backed Over55c341.96$188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.461258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2011…f296backed Over53c300$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1411643.8%7 W · 9 L-1.5wins-0.09per pick53cpaid-11.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x75ef…cb71backed Over55c287.78$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.51258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+8.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8532…738bbacked Under46c250$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1153748.6%18 W · 19 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe6e4…22ccbacked Over55c250$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.58341%34 W · 49 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4103…9b9ebacked Over54c250$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1153351.5%17 W · 16 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x537e…63ccbacked Over56c250$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110580%4 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.28per pick52cpaid+61.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc2d1…84a2backed Over53c249.97$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.488038.8%31 W · 49 L+0.1wins0.00per pick39cpaid+12.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b1d…6a8bbacked Over54c244.55$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.276248.4%30 W · 32 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-6.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeda0…7dffbacked Over79c236.27$186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.174827.1%13 W · 35 L-3.9wins-0.08per pick35cpaid-23.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Under45c225.62$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.0221745.6%99 W · 118 L-0.4wins0.00per pick46cpaid-6.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Over46c223$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.1929142.3%123 W · 168 L-8.1wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-12.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x64ae…ead9backed Under46c217.39$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10011135.1%39 W · 72 L-6.1wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-11.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb3d2…f38bbacked Over71c206.74$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.15540%2 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-43.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaacf…5f84backed Over53c200$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9420667.5%139 W · 67 L+7.3wins+0.04per pick64cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8059…c043backed Over55c200$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$902259.1%13 W · 9 L+2.7wins+0.12per pick47cpaid+38%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe880…de2dbacked Under50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1007742.9%33 W · 44 L-6.7wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-22.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x24a9…caccbacked Over54c200$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$921241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-12.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x789e…fd45backed Under45c199.98$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.991338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.7wins-0.13per pick52cpaid-35.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2b9e…db57backed Over55c198.29$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.23475%3 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.17per pick58cpaid+34.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe071…f836backed Over53c194.37$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.369547.4%45 W · 50 L-7.1wins-0.07per pick55cpaid-12.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x76da…30a2backed Over54c185.19$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.196144.3%27 W · 34 L-2.8wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-21.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9ddc…f21cbacked Over55c182.34$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.341464.3%9 W · 5 L+1.9wins+0.14per pick50cpaid+9.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa9d9…dc26backed Over55c182.02$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.972100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x69dc…336dbacked Over55c181.82$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.82250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c1e…9514backed Over55c181.82$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.827052.9%37 W · 33 L+3.4wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+13.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdb12…f057backed Over53c180$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.611152.3%58 W · 53 L0.0wins0.00per pick52cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b4e…2c1fbacked Over56c179.39$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.393447.1%16 W · 18 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0f66…2ad8backed Over56c178.57$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.572045%9 W · 11 L-1.5wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-9.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xceda…e67bbacked Over56c178.57$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.571963.2%12 W · 7 L+2.6wins+0.14per pick49cpaid+29.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe1da…0370backed Over56c178.57$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.571844.4%8 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc270…1379backed Over56c178.57$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.571060%6 W · 4 L+2.3wins+0.23per pick37cpaid+52.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x5bb9…1f8fbacked Over56c178.57$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.57771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick63cpaid+26.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1166…a8e1backed Over57c174.98$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.982347.8%11 W · 12 L+2.4wins+0.10per pick38cpaid+24.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x419b…6ea1backed Over56c169.64$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.642458.3%14 W · 10 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+9.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8889…a9d1backed Under46c159.8$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.4616447.6%78 W · 86 L-5.3wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-11.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x380c…1099backed Over56c153.93$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.7310465.4%68 W · 36 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick64cpaid+7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa6c2…ba6ebacked Over65c153.85$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.854146.3%19 W · 22 L-2.8wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-12.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf515…0805backed Over66c151.52$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.523256.3%18 W · 14 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8aea…ec91backed Under45c150$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.52962.1%18 W · 11 L+2.2wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x44f9…677fbacked Over70c143.03$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.031758.8%10 W · 7 L+2.1wins+0.12per pick47cpaid+33.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4a59…eb2ebacked Under44c135.99$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.8414447.2%68 W · 76 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-6.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc599…2cecbacked Under44c135.99$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.8428357.2%162 W · 121 L+15.2wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+12.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2078…2d66backed Over52c135$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.81850%9 W · 9 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9827…e5ffbacked Under44c128.98$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.751338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.09per pick48cpaid-22.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc049…48abbacked Over47c127.66$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.663938.5%15 W · 24 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+9.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b0e…5b17backed Over55c116.95$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.631540%6 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-13.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xae75…e41cbacked Under47c116.51$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.762445.8%11 W · 13 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-18.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x742f…d673backed Over48c110$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.721744.7%97 W · 120 L-8.5wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-20.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb583…3428backed Under46c110$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.61457.1%8 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x051c…f25dbacked Under46c110$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.64535.6%16 W · 29 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfbfe…5247backed Over55c109.09$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.091338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-21.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x32f2…7830backed Over72c108.04$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.143560%21 W · 14 L+2.4wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+0.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa35f…b58fbacked Over56c106.06$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.679841.8%41 W · 57 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Under44c103.73$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.3346048.5%223 W · 237 L-7.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-11.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a5c…b3f2backed Under46c102.19$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.0112751.2%65 W · 62 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+8.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.