South American Leagues · resolved market
Will Botafogo FR win on 2025-10-15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x780d98caad39327681992f54e4ba73b6a37ae90d9d2bf5d814dbc8c35c74492d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,078
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,859
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,078 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 77c | 3,451$2,657 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$793.76 | 506 | 61.3%310 W · 196 L | +20.8wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Yes | 23c | 2,050$472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$471.5 | 436 | 18.8%82 W · 354 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e93…a140backed Yes | 23c | 1,310$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 16c | 1,096$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.15 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94fb…d6cbbacked Yes | 20c | 929.67$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.93 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47af…799bbacked No | 78c | 900$702 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2b6…9d5ebacked Yes | 22c | 900$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd22c…5674backed Yes | 22c | 750$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x805e…e345backed No | 78c | 750$585 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c4…5919backed Yes | 4c | 642.51$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3bd…b641backed No | 78c | 600$468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfad…e89bbacked Yes | 22c | 600$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 31cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfece…940bbacked No | 78c | 500.42$392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c02…3c15backed Yes | 21c | 499.98$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ed4…409fbacked Yes | 21c | 400$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5949…89dabacked No | 79c | 400$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7180…bdbabacked No | 80c | 250$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa6c…4b49backed Yes | 22c | 227.27$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Yes | 21c | 147.61$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 162 | 34.6%56 W · 106 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26ab…41c1backed No | 79c | 126.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.58 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf49a…895cbacked No | 80c | 125.15$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.15 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 20c | 112.98$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.6 | 816 | 51.6%421 W · 395 L | +12.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc26d…63f2backed Yes | 23c | 110.43$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x954b…eb22backed Yes | 22c | 91.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Yes | 23c | 89.85$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.58 | 312 | 26.6%83 W · 229 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea8…1fbfbacked Yes | 17c | 79.81$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.53 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 21c | 60$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 636 | 44.7%284 W · 352 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bc4…880bbacked No | 77c | 59.74$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.74 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 77cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ee7…12c5backed No | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2408…9de9backed No | 79c | 43.35$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79d8…48a1backed No | 79c | 23.34$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x174c…49b1backed No | 77c | 19.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Botafogo FR win on 2025-10-15?this page
- Will Botafogo FR vs. CR Flamengo end in a draw?No won
- Will CR Flamengo win on 2025-10-15?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.