South American Leagues · resolved market
Will CR Flamengo win on 2025-10-15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdf1fd2d26237c19c5cce5ab3c68e9406b383b8032606058ed55d15b525e9973f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $50,440
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $55,438
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $50,440 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Yes | 49c | 25,000$12,247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,753.48 | 316 | 43%136 W · 180 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee03…3eeabacked No | 51c | 14,280$7,283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,282.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 50c | 13,653$6,815 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,814.7 | 506 | 61.3%310 W · 196 L | +20.8wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…5b15backed No | 52c | 5,000$2,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,600 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea8…1fbfbacked Yes | 54c | 4,543$2,441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,102.16 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8156…27c2backed Yes | 50c | 2,455$1,216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,239.12 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +65%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 48c | 2,338$1,129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,209.08 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53e5…6177backed No | 50c | 1,865$933 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$932.56 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 47c | 1,271$591 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$591.15 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 1c | 1,181$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 88 | 8%7 W · 81 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd82a…5fcfbacked No | 51c | 999.99$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$509.99 | 80 | 56.3%45 W · 35 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4cb…cbfcbacked Yes | 48c | 750$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7967…07f9backed Yes | 49c | 614$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Yes | 49c | 510.2$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.2 | 184 | 33.2%61 W · 123 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a53…cc07backed Yes | 48c | 500$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd3bb…c8acbacked No | 52c | 500$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x03f7…c0ccbacked No | 51c | 499.98$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.99 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -2.7wins | -0.16per pick | 39cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x94fb…d6cbbacked Yes | 47c | 442.3$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.42 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f5…30bcbacked Yes | 50c | 334.8$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.4 | 44 | 20.5%9 W · 35 L | -5.7wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4f2a…2ba0backed Yes | 50c | 209.86$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.93 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d0a…0809backed Yes | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 51 | 29.4%15 W · 36 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6884…6ccfbacked No | 53c | 200$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc426…20b4backed Yes | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa6c…4b49backed Yes | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1208…1feabacked No | 51c | 199.99$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed No | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 91 | 56%51 W · 40 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 49c | 160$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.98 | 636 | 44.7%284 W · 352 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x735a…3ef2backed No | 52c | 144.23$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aaa…03f2backed Yes | 50c | 110.62$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba03…f806backed Yes | 50c | 96$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 48cpaid | -60%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c29…06cbbacked Yes | 48c | 83.33$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.33 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcba6…bb05backed No | 52c | 76.07$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.76 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6ff…1eb6backed Yes | 50c | 64.02$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.01 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa072…9e34backed No | 38c | 60$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 104 | 42.3%44 W · 60 L | +6.1wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c2b…aa95backed Yes | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5abd…dfcfbacked Yes | 48c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.4 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ee7…12c5backed No | 53c | 47.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…07c3backed Yes | 49c | 43.37$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf49a…895cbacked Yes | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe05e…1ab8backed Yes | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x828d…e57fbacked Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd330…3e50backed Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2359…f72bbacked No | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x17ae…ccf1backed Yes | 51c | 31.37$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.37 | 67 | 47.8%32 W · 35 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc02…958abacked Yes | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63ee…b660backed Yes | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa03…eea2backed Yes | 50c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe790…3e46backed Yes | 50c | 22.02$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.02 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +58.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26ab…41c1backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e10…70f4backed Yes | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 119 | 59.7%71 W · 48 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 318 | 27%86 W · 232 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46b1…ccb7backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will CR Flamengo win on 2025-10-15?this page
- Will Botafogo FR vs. CR Flamengo end in a draw?No won
- Will Botafogo FR win on 2025-10-15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.