South American Leagues · resolved market
Will Botafogo FR vs. CR Flamengo end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x253e271511d57cb75f3b83b53aa6d8c5b5386d4d038da041d8b5daf173f645cf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,147
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,115
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,147 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdeef…0cbfbacked Yes | 30c | 5,016$1,505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,504.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cec…e65cbacked Yes | 30c | 5,011$1,503 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,503.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 71c | 3,769$2,675 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,094.07 | 506 | 61.3%310 W · 196 L | +20.8wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2b2…d101backed Yes | 31c | 3,227$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e51…a759backed No | 70c | 2,859$2,002 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$857.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x774a…98f2backed No | 70c | 2,858$2,001 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$857.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x706f…a645backed No | 70c | 2,714$1,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$814.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f95…53b1backed No | 70c | 1,578$1,105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$473.37 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26d2…6b85backed Yes | 30c | 1,482$445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$444.6 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7be6…0530backed No | 70c | 1,458$1,021 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$437.4 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea8…1fbfbacked Yes | 16c | 399.68$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.95 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 79c | 337$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.36 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad28…770cbacked Yes | 20c | 273$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.6 | 85 | 47.1%40 W · 45 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Yes | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 144 | 46.5%67 W · 77 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 69c | 63.79$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.78 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ee…8067backed Yes | 31c | 58.06$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | +4.0wins | +0.09per pick | 40cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Botafogo FR vs. CR Flamengo end in a draw?this page
- Will Botafogo FR win on 2025-10-15?No won
- Will CR Flamengo win on 2025-10-15?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.