Europa Conference League · resolved market

Aston Villa FC vs. BSC Young Boys: O/U 3.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbf6027c94f963603322a74bb1861b7ba45c264520d6720dd7c233edf9035cb9d

Rebuilt 7 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Underof Over, Under
Resolved: Nov 27, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $38,581
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $40,250

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,581 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 88 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x204f…5e14backed Under	52c	15,657$8,157 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7,500.4	3,726	47%1,750 W · 1,976 L	+20.0wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-8.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd860…aa2cbacked Over	51c	9,689$4,923 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,922.75	2	50%1 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+1.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1867…92cabacked Over	51c	4,896$2,497 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,496.96	109	60.6%66 W · 43 L	+6.4wins	+0.06per pick	55cpaid	+13.1%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xec13…862bbacked Over	50c	3,333$1,667 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,666.5	21	28.6%6 W · 15 L	-2.9wins	-0.14per pick	43cpaid	-44.3%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4133…5e70backed Under	50c	3,289$1,635 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,654.22	848	50.8%431 W · 417 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc7ed…6c8bbacked Over	51c	3,072$1,566 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,565.99	43	51.2%22 W · 21 L	+5.0wins	+0.12per pick	40cpaid	+50%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Under	49c	1,489$734 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$754.74	338	47%159 W · 179 L	-5.5wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x98d8…1552backed Under	50c	1,138$569 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$569.1	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.5wins	+0.18per pick	49cpaid	+34.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd092…342abacked Over	49c	1,020$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	55	45.5%25 W · 30 L	-5.8wins	-0.11per pick	56cpaid	-19.2%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf778…2f09backed Over	50c	1,000$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	16	18.8%3 W · 13 L	-2.1wins	-0.13per pick	32cpaid	-65.6%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5159…d7aebacked Under	51c	1,000$510 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$490	32	43.8%14 W · 18 L	+0.6wins	+0.02per pick	42cpaid	+4.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x908a…ad16backed Under	52c	821.8$426 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$396.13	428	44.9%192 W · 236 L	-6.1wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd04d…bfc2backed Over	51c	588$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$299.88	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.5wins	-0.10per pick	50cpaid	-19.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5ea5…2af9backed Over	49c	571.43$280 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$280	14	71.4%10 W · 4 L	+1.5wins	+0.10per pick	61cpaid	+18.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe398…4ce5backed Under	55c	566.36$311 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$255.36	5	80%4 W · 1 L	+0.7wins	+0.13per pick	67cpaid	+19.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d01…0ab1backed Under	49c	500$245 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$255	103	32%33 W · 70 L	-5.8wins	-0.06per pick	38cpaid	-17.3%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0ba4…c08bbacked Under	51c	500$255 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$245	32	53.1%17 W · 15 L	+1.7wins	+0.05per pick	48cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9e87…8befbacked Over	49c	489.8$240 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$240	14	71.4%10 W · 4 L	+1.5wins	+0.10per pick	61cpaid	+18.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x931f…d15dbacked Over	49c	404.42$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	7	57.1%4 W · 3 L	-0.4wins	-0.05per pick	62cpaid	-7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8f7…b542backed Over	50c	380$190 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$190	2	50%1 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	0%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4103…9b9ebacked Under	53c	357.26$189 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$167.91	21	61.9%13 W · 8 L	+2.7wins	+0.13per pick	49cpaid	+27.7%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8889…a9d1backed Over	51c	352.94$180 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$180	37	70.3%26 W · 11 L	+6.2wins	+0.17per pick	53cpaid	+30.9%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0x9154…8f2dbacked Over	47c	319.23$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150.04	39	33.3%13 W · 26 L	-1.1wins	-0.03per pick	36cpaid	+11.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c85…77c6backed Under	52c	318$165 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$152.64	84	56%47 W · 37 L	+2.7wins	+0.03per pick	53cpaid	+17%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4a59…eb2ebacked Under	49c	239.99$118 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$122.39	91	48.4%44 W · 47 L	-3.8wins	-0.04per pick	53cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x33a7…960dbacked Over	50c	200$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	63	23.8%15 W · 48 L	-3.0wins	-0.05per pick	29cpaid	-27.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x655d…b758backed Over	51c	196.08$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.17per pick	50cpaid	-33.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x419b…6ea1backed Over	51c	196.08$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	8	50%4 W · 4 L	-0.7wins	-0.09per pick	59cpaid	-18.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe880…de2dbacked Under	59c	169.49$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$69.49	7	57.1%4 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	59cpaid	+1%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xfe78…db98backed Over	41c	169.49$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69.49	13	69.2%9 W · 4 L	+2.9wins	+0.22per pick	47cpaid	+48.8%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Under	50c	158.34$79 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$78.9	92	27.2%25 W · 67 L	-11.8wins	-0.13per pick	40cpaid	-43%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0x7e99…8475backed Under	51c	152.1$78 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$74.53	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.5wins	+0.49per pick	51cpaid	+96.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2e00…eb46backed Over	50c	140.62$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70.31	25	60%15 W · 10 L	+1.9wins	+0.08per pick	52cpaid	+14.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf8d9…d7f5backed Over	52c	125.12$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65	23	26.1%6 W · 17 L	-1.1wins	-0.05per pick	31cpaid	-43.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb891…969bbacked Under	51c	111$57 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$54.39	90	37.8%34 W · 56 L	-2.2wins	-0.02per pick	40cpaid	-8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd552…5ebebacked Over	50c	104$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52	9	44.4%4 W · 5 L	-0.6wins	-0.07per pick	51cpaid	-23.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc711…d3c6backed Under	49c	100$49 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$51	13	69.2%9 W · 4 L	+1.8wins	+0.14per pick	56cpaid	+18.8%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xcf26…39a6backed Over	49c	99.96$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.98	29	58.6%17 W · 12 L	+2.7wins	+0.09per pick	49cpaid	+23.5%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6a5c…b3f2backed Under	50c	97.05$49 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$48.29	101	43.6%44 W · 57 L	-2.8wins	-0.03per pick	46cpaid	-14.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe50b…c2a8backed Over	50c	92$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46	154	59.1%91 W · 63 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	59cpaid	-3.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa710…f1ccbacked Over	36c	88.47$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.85	152	24.3%37 W · 115 L	-6.9wins	-0.05per pick	29cpaid	-25.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4215…f03abacked Over	45c	79$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.55	12	16.7%2 W · 10 L	-2.6wins	-0.22per pick	39cpaid	-77%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4e0a…e4e6backed Under	49c	72$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$36.72	237	57%135 W · 102 L	-2.8wins	-0.01per pick	58cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x41ed…1da9backed Under	49c	60$29 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30.6	94	44.7%42 W · 52 L	-7.2wins	-0.08per pick	52cpaid	-18%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x26ab…41c1backed Over	50c	54$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27	17	29.4%5 W · 12 L	-1.7wins	-0.10per pick	40cpaid	-28.8%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2c4a…8e5dbacked Over	45c	53$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.85	129	48.8%63 W · 66 L	-6.5wins	-0.05per pick	54cpaid	-10.5%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5179…2b29backed Over	45c	51.36$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.11	142	52.1%74 W · 68 L	-4.3wins	-0.03per pick	55cpaid	-5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfcad…0a68backed Under	50c	49.31$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.56	26	50%13 W · 13 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-11.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcc0e…0fbdbacked Under	49c	48$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.48	82	50%41 W · 41 L	-2.2wins	-0.03per pick	53cpaid	-8.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb3e4…d6b2backed Under	49c	48$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.48	147	56.5%83 W · 64 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	55cpaid	+2.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3036…15c2backed Under	59c	42.37$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.37	80	37.5%30 W · 50 L	-5.1wins	-0.06per pick	44cpaid	-8.5%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x958d…3501backed Over	50c	40.31$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	132	56.8%75 W · 57 L	-3.1wins	-0.02per pick	59cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2532…5b32backed Over	50c	40.22$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.29	8	62.5%5 W · 3 L	+0.7wins	+0.09per pick	53cpaid	+10.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4bdf…9652backed Under	55c	36$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.2	50	60%30 W · 20 L	+1.0wins	+0.02per pick	58cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbe63…2de4backed Under	53c	28.3$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.3	6	50%3 W · 3 L	+0.2wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	+16.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0c2d…2570backed Over	45c	26$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.7	67	41.8%28 W · 39 L	-6.2wins	-0.09per pick	51cpaid	-23.4%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0xa620…ca56backed Over	45c	26$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.7	76	47.4%36 W · 40 L	-2.5wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa87b…968bbacked Over	47c	25.53$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	70	28.6%20 W · 50 L	-3.2wins	-0.05per pick	33cpaid	-20.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x31ce…88cdbacked Under	49c	24$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.24	78	47.4%37 W · 41 L	-3.2wins	-0.04per pick	51cpaid	-9.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x84fc…9db4backed Under	49c	24$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.24	80	52.5%42 W · 38 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4109…7e24backed Under	49c	24$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.24	109	53.2%58 W · 51 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xeb01…2783backed Under	49c	24$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.24	77	48.1%37 W · 40 L	-3.7wins	-0.05per pick	53cpaid	-10.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x96f4…8081backed Under	49c	24$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.24	79	49.4%39 W · 40 L	-2.8wins	-0.04per pick	53cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa204…e66fbacked Under	49c	24$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.24	78	48.7%38 W · 40 L	-3.0wins	-0.04per pick	53cpaid	-8.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8bdf…8adabacked Under	49c	24$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.24	78	52.6%41 W · 37 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	54cpaid	+0.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7cae…bf8abacked Under	49c	24$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.24	81	46.9%38 W · 43 L	-4.1wins	-0.05per pick	52cpaid	-12%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9adf…3f2fbacked Under	49c	24$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.24	76	48.7%37 W · 39 L	-2.6wins	-0.03per pick	52cpaid	-7.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf99a…5487backed Under	49c	24$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.24	76	51.3%39 W · 37 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	-3.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2025…db59backed Under	49c	24$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.24	85	54.1%46 W · 39 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	+11.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe9ea…810abacked Under	49c	24$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.24	108	52.8%57 W · 51 L	-2.1wins	-0.02per pick	55cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdcf7…bcbebacked Under	49c	24$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.24	77	54.5%42 W · 35 L	+1.6wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	+7.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd2dc…b3c5backed Under	49c	24$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.24	80	56.3%45 W · 35 L	+4.2wins	+0.05per pick	51cpaid	+13.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe601…c728backed Under	49c	24$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.24	94	50%47 W · 47 L	-2.4wins	-0.03per pick	53cpaid	-7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc383…a540backed Under	49c	24$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.24	89	53.9%48 W · 41 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	+2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b82…2d2abacked Under	49c	24$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.24	80	48.8%39 W · 41 L	-2.2wins	-0.03per pick	52cpaid	-9.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd2a2…004abacked Under	49c	24$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.24	80	57.5%46 W · 34 L	+4.8wins	+0.06per pick	51cpaid	+13.2%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xea2e…d695backed Under	49c	24$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.24	78	53.8%42 W · 36 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	54cpaid	+3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4edd…b1a1backed Under	49c	24$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.24	72	52.8%38 W · 34 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	+1.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe6df…22a9backed Under	49c	24$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.24	87	55.2%48 W · 39 L	+2.4wins	+0.03per pick	52cpaid	+8.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6afd…5cb1backed Under	49c	24$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.24	79	51.9%41 W · 38 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	+2.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfcb5…9bf1backed Over	46c	22.22$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.22	212	43.9%93 W · 119 L	-4.2wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6079…81c6backed Under	54c	22.22$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.22	36	44.4%16 W · 20 L	-1.9wins	-0.05per pick	50cpaid	-15.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xec54…a03dbacked Under	50c	20$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.5wins	+0.50per pick	50cpaid	+100%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8393…253cbacked Under	50c	20$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10	7	71.4%5 W · 2 L	+1.6wins	+0.22per pick	49cpaid	+81.6%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb1aa…378bbacked Over	50c	20$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	17	23.5%4 W · 13 L	-2.3wins	-0.13per pick	37cpaid	-35.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Over	51c	20$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.2	96	44.8%43 W · 53 L	+4.3wins	+0.04per pick	40cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1a29…16c5backed Over	50c	20$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	32	59.4%19 W · 13 L	+1.7wins	+0.05per pick	54cpaid	+9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf9f1…23eebacked Under	50c	20$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10	142	33.1%47 W · 95 L	-9.2wins	-0.06per pick	40cpaid	-17.2%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Aston Villa FC vs. BSC Young Boys: O/U 3.5this page
Aston Villa FC vs. BSC Young Boys: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
Spread: Aston Villa FC (-2.5)BSC Young Boys won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Aston Villa FC vs. BSC Young Boys: O/U 3.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event