Europa Conference League · resolved market
Spread: Aston Villa FC (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9f3314a515e8a2efe61c96eb77bb40406d5607de7d0dafb2871d84ddc927d18a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- BSC Young Boysof Aston Villa FC, BSC Young Boys
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,433
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,369
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,433 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1867…92cabacked BSC Young Boys | 59c | 5,000$2,950 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,050 | 109 | 60.6%66 W · 43 L | +6.4wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Aston Villa FC | 39c | 3,816$1,489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,489.01 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Aston Villa FC | 41c | 1,829$745 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$745.36 | 333 | 49.8%166 W · 167 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed BSC Young Boys | 61c | 1,640$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$639.59 | 201 | 32.3%65 W · 136 L | -9.9wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked BSC Young Boys | 63c | 937$590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$346.69 | 351 | 58.1%204 W · 147 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5942…5641backed Aston Villa FC | 37c | 739.91$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.77 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8511…ed83backed Aston Villa FC | 30c | 460$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2f…37ddbacked BSC Young Boys | 61c | 257$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.23 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Aston Villa FC | 39c | 204.18$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.47 | 338 | 47%159 W · 179 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Aston Villa FC | 37c | 175$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.75 | 361 | 36%130 W · 231 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d1…6b4fbacked Aston Villa FC | 40c | 170$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd56c…df5bbacked Aston Villa FC | 40c | 165$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x634e…f16cbacked Aston Villa FC | 40c | 160$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Aston Villa FC | 42c | 119.07$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 147 | 33.3%49 W · 98 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked BSC Young Boys | 58c | 118.67$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.84 | 449 | 52.6%236 W · 213 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbeab…3fb8backed Aston Villa FC | 40c | 105$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67c3…5cc8backed Aston Villa FC | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed BSC Young Boys | 60c | 92$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.8 | 154 | 59.1%91 W · 63 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f84…67efbacked Aston Villa FC | 42c | 80$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 73 | 28.8%21 W · 52 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed BSC Young Boys | 62c | 68$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.98 | 181 | 45.9%83 W · 98 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9b…829ebacked Aston Villa FC | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06a9…1a49backed Aston Villa FC | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 143 | 52.4%75 W · 68 L | +8.8wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed Aston Villa FC | 39c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 212 | 43.9%93 W · 119 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa198…9601backed Aston Villa FC | 40c | 36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e16…41f8backed BSC Young Boys | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed Aston Villa FC | 36c | 28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7108…a418backed Aston Villa FC | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Aston Villa FC (-2.5)this page
- Aston Villa FC vs. BSC Young Boys: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Aston Villa FC vs. BSC Young Boys: O/U 3.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.