Bundesliga · resolved market
Will DSC Arminia Bielefeld win on 2025-12-06?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa483aa6a93890d19e201f53d2471a13bff36c6a5759a9ff2970f8ef9e3fcc1ed
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,594
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,292
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,594 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Yes | 36c | 25,000$8,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,900 | 114 | 45.6%52 W · 62 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 64c | 14,736$9,479 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,257.32 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb230…4193backed No | 65c | 9,953$6,469 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,483.53 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 72c | 3,598$2,577 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,020.15 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…9974backed Yes | 32c | 2,000$640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$640 | 86 | 37.2%32 W · 54 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2cb4…f28cbacked Yes | 1c | 1,102$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed No | 68c | 916.88$620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.99 | 447 | 49.4%221 W · 226 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed Yes | 32c | 780$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.6 | 227 | 47.1%107 W · 120 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6036…d2ccbacked No | 64c | 649.7$416 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.89 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb545…6e0abacked Yes | 11c | 533.93$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe930…b44dbacked Yes | 34c | 438.03$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b6a…1300backed Yes | 33c | 303.03$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d3…f2bcbacked No | 65c | 300$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 82 | 51.2%42 W · 40 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26ab…41c1backed Yes | 36c | 277.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +3.8wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb7…dceebacked Yes | 33c | 151.52$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x796e…2090backed Yes | 33c | 148.45$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8993…222dbacked Yes | 34c | 147.06$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 52 | 59.6%31 W · 21 L | +4.7wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x47ad…03cebacked Yes | 33c | 133.33$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb531…b230backed Yes | 32c | 109.38$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.5wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3459…808abacked Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 56 | 21.4%12 W · 44 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f39…5bc5backed Yes | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 65c | 63.89$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.29 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb875…68a8backed No | 67c | 60.61$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | -5.5wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe071…d24cbacked Yes | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Yes | 35c | 47.76$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.54 | 195 | 44.6%87 W · 108 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked No | 67c | 41.36$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.65 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a5c…b3f2backed No | 66c | 35.62$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.05 | 101 | 50.5%51 W · 50 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1db3…ada1backed Yes | 32c | 35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 77 | 59.7%46 W · 31 L | +5.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xadd2…350cbacked No | 69c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.75 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -3.1wins | -0.20per pick | 60cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…3583backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3020…bc04backed No | 64c | 19.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…4936backed No | 68c | 15.38$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.92 | 88 | 52.3%46 W · 42 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed No | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 45 | 57.8%26 W · 19 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will DSC Arminia Bielefeld win on 2025-12-06?this page
- Will VfL Bochum vs. DSC Arminia Bielefeld end in a draw?No won
- Will VfL Bochum win on 2025-12-06?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.