Champions League · resolved market
Spread: Manchester City FC (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6847bcae779d75693fb2a159a77ce10e66da5225aa8f1fd10d7e8323448df01f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Manchester City FCof Manchester City FC, BV Borussia 09 Dortmund
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,042
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,720
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,042 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Manchester City FC | 46c | 5,266$2,444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,822.13 | 1,994 | 43.9%875 W · 1,119 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4cf0…251cbacked BV Borussia 09 Dortmund | 54c | 5,000$2,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,699.97 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed BV Borussia 09 Dortmund | 29c | 1,957$563 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$562.76 | 63 | 39.7%25 W · 38 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed BV Borussia 09 Dortmund | 52c | 1,622$840 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$840.37 | 210 | 37.1%78 W · 132 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd31c…dac9backed Manchester City FC | 45c | 1,509$684 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$824.83 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -4.1wins | -0.16per pick | 39cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1a87…4e00backed Manchester City FC | 48c | 1,404$674 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$730 | 87 | 40.2%35 W · 52 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +81%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd14a…e912backed BV Borussia 09 Dortmund | 54c | 899.51$486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$485.74 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2f…37ddbacked BV Borussia 09 Dortmund | 53c | 520$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.6 | 111 | 32.4%36 W · 75 L | -5.0wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7087…c61fbacked Manchester City FC | 45c | 442.27$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.25 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33fa…681bbacked BV Borussia 09 Dortmund | 4c | 440$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +93.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26ab…41c1backed Manchester City FC | 48c | 416.85$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.85 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -6.3wins | -0.19per pick | 45cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa65b…0419backed BV Borussia 09 Dortmund | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12c4…ff8cbacked Manchester City FC | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.38 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Manchester City FC | 44c | 104$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.24 | 149 | 52.3%78 W · 71 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe78e…55f0backed BV Borussia 09 Dortmund | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fe…c8c2backed BV Borussia 09 Dortmund | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87ea…f625backed BV Borussia 09 Dortmund | 53c | 99.99$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 61 | 39.3%24 W · 37 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a8c…fb4cbacked BV Borussia 09 Dortmund | 55c | 87.27$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…ad8dbacked Manchester City FC | 46c | 65.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.22 | 53 | 58.5%31 W · 22 L | +8.1wins | +0.15per pick | 43cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5025…9c3dbacked Manchester City FC | 46c | 65.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.22 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3895…4025backed BV Borussia 09 Dortmund | 58c | 58.5$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.93 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd612…0bc1backed BV Borussia 09 Dortmund | 55c | 55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.25 | 56 | 60.7%34 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4bd…06d4backed BV Borussia 09 Dortmund | 52c | 50.79$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.41 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -3.6wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Manchester City FC | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | +3.7wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf672…c3c4backed BV Borussia 09 Dortmund | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 58 | 55.2%32 W · 26 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb6b…7b61backed Manchester City FC | 49c | 45$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.95 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c46…2d02backed Manchester City FC | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb052…7adabacked BV Borussia 09 Dortmund | 57c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 57 | 47.4%27 W · 30 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b2…c24ebacked Manchester City FC | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 54 | 59.3%32 W · 22 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8fe…ba40backed BV Borussia 09 Dortmund | 55c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 149 | 47%70 W · 79 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…d4d8backed Manchester City FC | 51c | 39.31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.31 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf88…3ed6backed BV Borussia 09 Dortmund | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26f7…3ea6backed BV Borussia 09 Dortmund | 52c | 38.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f9f…4b15backed BV Borussia 09 Dortmund | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -5.0wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x535d…6ff7backed Manchester City FC | 46c | 32.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.61 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d00…dd1ebacked Manchester City FC | 46c | 30.8$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.63 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc00b…7f8dbacked Manchester City FC | 46c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f7…f6f2backed Manchester City FC | 42c | 26.78$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +139.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a5c…b3f2backed Manchester City FC | 48c | 25.31$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.24 | 127 | 51.2%65 W · 62 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Manchester City FC (-1.5)this page
- Manchester City FC vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Manchester City FC vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund: O/U 3.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.