Manchester City FC vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund: O/U 3.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x49404c98f02ed5070cdc0175f74fda27a497375d9459325e64c3f830372d7823

Rebuilt 15 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Overof Over, Under
Resolved: Nov 5, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $31,209
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $38,360

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,209 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Champions League
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x204f…5e14backed Under	52c	6,932$3,602 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,602.4	1,994	43.9%875 W · 1,119 L	+1.0wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	-9.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Under	56c	5,084$2,829 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,828.98	63	39.7%25 W · 38 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	39cpaid	-15.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc7ed…6c8bbacked Over	45c	3,000$1,345 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,654.95	102	32.4%33 W · 69 L	-2.8wins	-0.03per pick	35cpaid	-17%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under	55c	2,509$1,391 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,391.23	306	57.5%176 W · 130 L	+11.9wins	+0.04per pick	54cpaid	+8.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2129…4222backed Under	33c	2,457$808 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$808.37	149	52.3%78 W · 71 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	-8.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x699f…d5c6backed Over	45c	2,415$1,078 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,336.43	126	44.4%56 W · 70 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5bf4…952ebacked Over	45c	2,291$1,039 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,252.25	21	47.6%10 W · 11 L	-1.7wins	-0.08per pick	56cpaid	-16.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x49dc…1fc6backed Over	72c	2,037$1,457 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$580.29	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+0.7wins	+0.36per pick	64cpaid	+57.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3993…cdedbacked Over	44c	1,941$853 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,088.11	82	59.8%49 W · 33 L	+9.0wins	+0.11per pick	49cpaid	+27.1%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf778…2f09backed Over	44c	1,499$660 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$839.63	67	34.3%23 W · 44 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	35cpaid	+5.6%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x68d6…cfb9backed Over	44c	1,358$600 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$757.69	15	40%6 W · 9 L	-2.1wins	-0.14per pick	54cpaid	-22.8%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd5a1…0544backed Under	56c	1,000$560 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$560	40	52.5%21 W · 19 L	+2.4wins	+0.06per pick	46cpaid	+15.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5eb0…5012backed Over	65c	999.86$650 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$349.95	22	36.4%8 W · 14 L	-1.4wins	-0.07per pick	43cpaid	-39.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd14a…e912backed Under	54c	899.99$486 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$486	50	48%24 W · 26 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe24f…0c5abacked Over	44c	681.82$300 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$381.82	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+0.4wins	+0.10per pick	40cpaid	-6.9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcd43…88d7backed Over	45c	565.71$255 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$311.14	24	50%12 W · 12 L	+6.0wins	+0.25per pick	25cpaid	+96.7%equal weight	64+0.12 edge/pick
0x9ae8…cb64backed Under	57c	526.32$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	8	25%2 W · 6 L	-1.3wins	-0.16per pick	41cpaid	-58.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x90e5…f3ebbacked Over	46c	521.74$240 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$281.74	3	100%3 W · 0 L	+1.4wins	+0.46per pick	54cpaid	+102.4%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x908a…ad16backed Under	56c	439$248 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$247.59	375	44%165 W · 210 L	+4.5wins	+0.01per pick	43cpaid	-8.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2509…e4dbbacked Under	60c	398.33$239 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$239	10	50%5 W · 5 L	-0.3wins	-0.03per pick	53cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4cee…85dabacked Under	54c	367.82$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	13	53.8%7 W · 6 L	-0.6wins	-0.04per pick	58cpaid	-8.7%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7189…b454backed Over	42c	344.83$145 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$200	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.6wins	+0.58per pick	42cpaid	+138.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa65b…0419backed Under	58c	344.83$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	27	55.6%15 W · 12 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	55cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0d27…a044backed Over	45c	333.78$150 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$183.78	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.6wins	+0.55per pick	45cpaid	+122.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb113…8bc6backed Under	55c	332.99$183 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$183.15	189	50.3%95 W · 94 L	+8.8wins	+0.05per pick	46cpaid	+29.8%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf1ed…6d3cbacked Under	56c	330.5$185 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$185.08	9	44.4%4 W · 5 L	-1.7wins	-0.18per pick	63cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8ddb…420bbacked Under	57c	299.98$171 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$170.99	33	42.4%14 W · 19 L	-5.5wins	-0.17per pick	59cpaid	-31.1%equal weight	39-0.09 edge/pick
0x8208…1742backed Over	45c	223$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$122.65	26	50%13 W · 13 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	+30.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa774…005fbacked Under	55c	199.99$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110	14	64.3%9 W · 5 L	+0.8wins	+0.06per pick	59cpaid	+10.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc15d…6a7cbacked Over	44c	169.23$74 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$94.77	36	36.1%13 W · 23 L	-2.5wins	-0.07per pick	43cpaid	-19%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc23d…82c8backed Over	41c	155.37$64 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$91.52	43	53.5%23 W · 20 L	-2.4wins	-0.05per pick	59cpaid	-15.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9453…22cfbacked Over	43c	152.49$66 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$86.92	25	52%13 W · 12 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7541…09d1backed Over	44c	136.07$60 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$76.2	46	39.1%18 W · 28 L	-4.6wins	-0.10per pick	49cpaid	-27.5%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5b0e…5b17backed Over	46c	130.43$60 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$70.43	15	40%6 W · 9 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	42cpaid	-13.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6247…9a13backed Under	57c	114.65$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.35	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-2.3wins	-0.46per pick	46cpaid	-100%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x2623…e65abacked Over	44c	113.64$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$63.64	20	15%3 W · 17 L	-5.2wins	-0.26per pick	41cpaid	-69.8%equal weight	37-0.12 edge/pick
0x9154…8f2dbacked Over	46c	111.16$51 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$59.86	46	37%17 W · 29 L	+1.9wins	+0.04per pick	33cpaid	+14.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaf17…9c04backed Over	45c	105.55$47 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$58.05	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	+1.1wins	+0.13per pick	21cpaid	+16.9%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x84b2…f1dabacked Over	43c	104.65$45 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$59.65	42	50%21 W · 21 L	-1.9wins	-0.04per pick	54cpaid	-4.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc7d7…8b82backed Over	65c	100$65 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$35	4	100%4 W · 0 L	+2.0wins	+0.51per pick	50cpaid	+115.5%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5a3c…93d7backed Over	44c	90$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$50.4	29	44.8%13 W · 16 L	+1.7wins	+0.06per pick	39cpaid	+6.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x681d…4cbfbacked Under	56c	89.29$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	67	53.7%36 W · 31 L	+2.5wins	+0.04per pick	50cpaid	+12.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6fe9…9c50backed Over	46c	86.96$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$46.96	61	47.5%29 W · 32 L	-3.5wins	-0.06per pick	53cpaid	-8.5%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x33fa…681bbacked Over	44c	70$31 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$39.2	16	37.5%6 W · 10 L	+1.6wins	+0.10per pick	28cpaid	+93.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xaacf…5f84backed Over	45c	69$31 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$37.95	206	67.5%139 W · 67 L	+7.3wins	+0.04per pick	64cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf144…f2bbbacked Over	44c	68.18$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$38.18	36	47.2%17 W · 19 L	+1.1wins	+0.03per pick	44cpaid	+13.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfaeb…0512backed Over	45c	66.67$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$36.67	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+1.1wins	+0.57per pick	43cpaid	+130.2%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x735a…3ef2backed Under	56c	62.5$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	228	47.8%109 W · 119 L	-8.9wins	-0.04per pick	52cpaid	-10.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x939d…3b3cbacked Over	43c	59.49$26 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$33.91	106	47.2%50 W · 56 L	+5.4wins	+0.05per pick	42cpaid	+15.4%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1677…1126backed Under	55c	58.64$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.25	240	47.1%113 W · 127 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3eb0…8826backed Over	45c	57.78$26 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31.78	50	40%20 W · 30 L	-1.5wins	-0.03per pick	43cpaid	-21%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdaf9…1646backed Over	44c	56.93$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31.93	15	40%6 W · 9 L	-3.2wins	-0.21per pick	61cpaid	-32.1%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xced0…c680backed Over	45c	55.56$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30.56	18	27.8%5 W · 13 L	-3.3wins	-0.19per pick	46cpaid	-45.9%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x85d3…0698backed Over	45c	55.56$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30.56	29	55.2%16 W · 13 L	+1.9wins	+0.06per pick	49cpaid	+18.6%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed Under	58c	54$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.32	202	41.6%84 W · 118 L	-9.7wins	-0.05per pick	46cpaid	-13.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x553b…f71cbacked Over	41c	52.54$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31	26	57.7%15 W · 11 L	+3.3wins	+0.13per pick	45cpaid	+26.6%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0x5025…9c3dbacked Under	58c	51.72$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	-0.5wins	-0.07per pick	49cpaid	-16.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7181…1b0abacked Over	40c	50$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30	27	63%17 W · 10 L	+1.5wins	+0.06per pick	57cpaid	+13.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x83f4…d10cbacked Over	46c	50$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27	15	60%9 W · 6 L	+1.8wins	+0.12per pick	48cpaid	+23.1%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6dff…bc36backed Over	42c	49.98$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.99	30	63.3%19 W · 11 L	+2.8wins	+0.09per pick	54cpaid	+19.9%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf672…c3c4backed Over	43c	46.51$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.51	58	55.2%32 W · 26 L	+3.1wins	+0.05per pick	50cpaid	+7.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd612…0bc1backed Over	44c	44$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.64	56	60.7%34 W · 22 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	61cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x6410…0751backed Over	46c	43.54$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.54	5	60%3 W · 2 L	+1.4wins	+0.28per pick	32cpaid	+59.7%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd510…0be5backed Over	71c	42.25$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.25	13	61.5%8 W · 5 L	+0.4wins	+0.03per pick	59cpaid	+1.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1a29…16c5backed Over	44c	40.66$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.77	69	50.7%35 W · 34 L	-2.8wins	-0.04per pick	55cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6a5c…b3f2backed Under	56c	36.76$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.72	127	51.2%65 W · 62 L	+5.0wins	+0.04per pick	47cpaid	+8.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3895…4025backed Under	58c	36.21$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.2wins	-0.58per pick	58cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x357f…1106backed Under	55c	35.99$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.8	15	26.7%4 W · 11 L	+0.4wins	+0.03per pick	24cpaid	+6.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb745…981bbacked Under	58c	34.48$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	14	50%7 W · 7 L	-1.5wins	-0.11per pick	61cpaid	-22.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x347a…83e3backed Over	43c	25$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.25	93	46.2%43 W · 50 L	+4.2wins	+0.04per pick	42cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbb61…bd7fbacked Under	58c	23.14$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.42	16	62.5%10 W · 6 L	+1.1wins	+0.07per pick	55cpaid	+6.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6a97…8359backed Under	57c	22.89$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.6wins	-0.57per pick	57cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc71e…f450backed Under	56c	22.22$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.44	46	45.7%21 W · 25 L	-1.0wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	-14.8%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xad9d…9b95backed Under	56c	20$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.2	65	46.2%30 W · 35 L	-1.7wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-8.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Manchester City FC vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund: O/U 3.5this page
Manchester City FC vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
Spread: Manchester City FC (-1.5)Manchester City FC won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Manchester City FC vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund: O/U 3.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event