Bundesliga · resolved market
Borussia Dortmund vs. 1899 Hoffenheim: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc3ced530777c98b6dc5d91f37eb6e6ec7b94096b5deb47891f30e89f9cc4fc9b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,307
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,098
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,307 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 76c | 13,124$9,953 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,171.34 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 24c | 11,429$2,701 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,700.66 | 536 | 45.9%246 W · 290 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 67c | 4,849$3,265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,584.93 | 751 | 42.5%319 W · 432 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d0f…a318backed Over | 21c | 3,300$693 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$693 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x803e…b070backed Over | 49c | 2,455$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x683a…274ebacked Over | 49c | 2,070$1,011 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,010.77 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd91a…211cbacked Over | 30c | 1,721$522 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$522 | 50 | 24%12 W · 38 L | -5.3wins | -0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 51c | 1,275$650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$624.51 | 141 | 57.4%81 W · 60 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Under | 79c | 1,124$882 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.39 | 195 | 44.6%87 W · 108 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x967d…ef6abacked Under | 72c | 833.33$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.33 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +61.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9d59…778dbacked Over | 47c | 800$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Under | 69c | 734.53$509 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.32 | 511 | 36.8%188 W · 323 L | -28.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Over | 5c | 649$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.34 | 185 | 45.9%85 W · 100 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Under | 53c | 500$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235 | 110 | 36.4%40 W · 70 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x775e…6541backed Over | 48c | 435.41$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209 | 83 | 36.1%30 W · 53 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x250e…b699backed Over | 48c | 300$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +19%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Under | 54c | 220$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.2 | 84 | 59.5%50 W · 34 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26ab…41c1backed Over | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +3.8wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb960…8c47backed Over | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa35f…b58fbacked Over | 43c | 145$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.35 | 106 | 42.5%45 W · 61 L | +6.1wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Over | 42c | 108$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.36 | 210 | 41.9%88 W · 122 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd552…5ebebacked Over | 47c | 104.26$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.19per pick | 47cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Over | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 93 | 50.5%47 W · 46 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x024e…2e48backed Over | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x051c…f25dbacked Over | 46c | 99.99$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Over | 47c | 85.11$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 137 | 54%74 W · 63 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x426a…128bbacked Under | 69c | 67.62$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.95 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Over | 48c | 62.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 207 | 53.6%111 W · 96 L | +22.3wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e6…71e4backed Under | 55c | 56$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Over | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 53c | 47.55$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.15 | 447 | 49.4%221 W · 226 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…ad8dbacked Under | 54c | 46.3$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.3 | 110 | 60%66 W · 44 L | +13.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +26%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf79e…9a84backed Under | 53c | 43.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.49 | 138 | 59.4%82 W · 56 L | +12.8wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6a5c…b3f2backed Under | 79c | 30.41$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.45 | 101 | 50.5%51 W · 50 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd323…64acbacked Over | 48c | 29.96$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.38 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbc7…63bcbacked Over | 47c | 24.94$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 47c | 24.27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.41 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccc…e7e8backed Under | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…3583backed Under | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Borussia Dortmund vs. 1899 Hoffenheim: O/U 3.5this page
- Borussia Dortmund vs. 1899 Hoffenheim: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Borussia Dortmund vs. 1899 Hoffenheim: O/U 1.5Over won
- Borussia Dortmund vs. 1899 Hoffenheim: O/U 2.5Under won
- Spread: Borussia Dortmund (-1.5)Borussia Dortmund won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.