Bundesliga · resolved market
Borussia Dortmund vs. 1899 Hoffenheim: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6d6ee4937d2c45f0d166a6f019ab3b749349ac4c39b52183ea50b08671435559
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $97,682
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $101,042
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $97,682 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0d0f…a318backed Over | 46c | 23,000$10,580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,579.99 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Under | 54c | 12,647$6,829 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,817.4 | 94 | 55.3%52 W · 42 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 54c | 10,779$5,834 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,834.48 | 536 | 45.9%246 W · 290 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7104…afefbacked Over | 60c | 7,023$4,224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,224.11 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 50c | 6,242$3,096 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,146.34 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x683a…274ebacked Over | 55c | 4,080$2,233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,233.2 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 40c | 2,803$1,129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,674.2 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Under | 31c | 1,500$465 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,034.98 | 277 | 26.4%73 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 55c | 1,067$585 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$481.77 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf55…a7e0backed Over | 49c | 1,018$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498.82 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +58.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe78e…55f0backed Under | 32c | 999.96$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$679.97 | 59 | 40.7%24 W · 35 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Over | 54c | 925.93$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 187 | 59.4%111 W · 76 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Over | 59c | 857.58$505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$505.25 | 185 | 45.9%85 W · 100 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x106b…4e8bbacked Over | 57c | 826.96$471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$471.37 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked Over | 50c | 750$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375 | 380 | 55.8%212 W · 168 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x833a…5d74backed Over | 39c | 671.43$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86f8…1655backed Over | 61c | 500$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe220…f862backed Over | 61c | 490$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.9 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7b7…0adbbacked Over | 59c | 485.05$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.18 | 61 | 54.1%33 W · 28 L | +5.0wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Under | 51c | 466.64$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.17 | 195 | 44.6%87 W · 108 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24a9…caccbacked Over | 68c | 380$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.4 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x216b…d5e6backed Over | 61c | 300$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0e6…84a8backed Over | 58c | 299.99$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Over | 52c | 299.85$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.13 | 751 | 42.5%319 W · 432 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2599…61cdbacked Over | 68c | 292.67$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.22per pick | 59cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa35f…b58fbacked Over | 47c | 276.61$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.17 | 106 | 42.5%45 W · 61 L | +6.1wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Under | 49c | 273.3$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.56 | 511 | 36.8%188 W · 323 L | -28.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc460…0aa4backed Over | 69c | 233.33$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -3.4wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x35a6…ab4dbacked Over | 49c | 204$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.96 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Over | 69c | 200$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138 | 91 | 73.6%67 W · 24 L | +5.9wins | +0.07per pick | 67cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Over | 68c | 199.97$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.98 | 93 | 50.5%47 W · 46 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a8d…31eabacked Over | 68c | 182.35$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124 | 345 | 47.5%164 W · 181 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7615…d605backed Over | 29c | 158.62$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac71…d8cabacked Over | 66c | 152.38$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 51c | 143.99$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.58 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9048…07f2backed Over | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +14%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d0a…0809backed Under | 49c | 122.45$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.45 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -4.8wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9453…22cfbacked Over | 68c | 100$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed Under | 34c | 95.38$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.95 | 333 | 40.8%136 W · 197 L | -14.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd4…49b7backed Over | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a6…c0fabacked Over | 67c | 91.84$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.54 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -3.3wins | -0.33per pick | 63cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb4…0872backed Over | 68c | 80$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.4 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x024e…2e48backed Over | 69c | 80$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.2 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa383…a2f0backed Under | 43c | 77.71$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.64 | 91 | 45.1%41 W · 50 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7957…ed88backed Over | 65c | 76.92$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d61…3113backed Over | 68c | 73.53$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc049…48abbacked Over | 51c | 70.59$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | +4.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfaa0…441abacked Over | 48c | 63.67$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.56 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f45…5e8fbacked Over | 66c | 61.88$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.84 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.30per pick | 46cpaid | -55%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2962…2650backed Over | 49c | 61.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Over | 57c | 60$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.2 | 85 | 51.8%44 W · 41 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa89e…4ab4backed Under | 33c | 60$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.2 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | +4.6wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2269…6304backed Over | 61c | 49.53$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 51 | 66.7%34 W · 17 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x426a…128bbacked Under | 49c | 47.23$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.09 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd323…64acbacked Over | 69c | 45.18$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.32 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f5d…20c8backed Over | 69c | 43.48$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.22per pick | 65cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e08…19cabacked Over | 53c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 35 | 71.4%25 W · 10 L | +3.5wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…ab7dbacked Over | 66c | 37.88$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 108 | 63%68 W · 40 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b80…42cabacked Over | 68c | 35.29$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0a8…9f0ebacked Under | 44c | 34.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.09 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.32per pick | 43cpaid | +87.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e8e…1ef0backed Over | 69c | 33.33$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x860d…6071backed Over | 73c | 32.72$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over | 57c | 31.58$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 346 | 55.5%192 W · 154 L | +9.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb89…46f1backed Under | 43c | 31.26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.82 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d54…81a1backed Over | 49c | 30.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +4.7wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc3…f826backed Over | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.42per pick | 67cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac27…18e7backed Over | 68c | 25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 78 | 67.9%53 W · 25 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0dd3…cb5ebacked Over | 72c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30ee…5d12backed Over | 67c | 19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.73 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 74cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under | 72c | 16.6$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.64 | 381 | 51.4%196 W · 185 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2d7…3a06backed Over | 69c | 15.36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Borussia Dortmund vs. 1899 Hoffenheim: O/U 2.5this page
- Borussia Dortmund vs. 1899 Hoffenheim: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Borussia Dortmund vs. 1899 Hoffenheim: O/U 1.5Over won
- Borussia Dortmund vs. 1899 Hoffenheim: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: Borussia Dortmund (-1.5)Borussia Dortmund won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.