Bundesliga · resolved market
Borussia Dortmund vs. 1899 Hoffenheim: Both Teams to Score
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe1e8b0939e53c2ad91c1e4172b4350e9a099487ff14b0bdae363d5c2c06082f7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,232
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,722
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,232 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 50c | 16,309$8,207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,101.79 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd67d…31c0backed Yes | 44c | 11,000$4,840 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,839.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7087…c61fbacked Yes | 51c | 8,000$4,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,079.99 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 50c | 6,518$3,272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,246.06 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d3e…783bbacked Yes | 50c | 1,999$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.72 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked Yes | 67c | 1,420$950 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$950 | 380 | 55.8%212 W · 168 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed No | 52c | 1,278$668 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$609.86 | 195 | 44.6%87 W · 108 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f0d…cce6backed Yes | 68c | 940.66$638 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$638.06 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 60cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked No | 32c | 830.33$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$564.62 | 277 | 26.4%73 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed No | 34c | 443.98$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.03 | 143 | 64.3%92 W · 51 L | +14.8wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…6cc9backed Yes | 67c | 422.2$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.36 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x478a…2deabacked Yes | 51c | 360$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.6 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -3.3wins | -0.16per pick | 59cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed No | 37c | 358.69$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.15 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x106b…4e8bbacked Yes | 67c | 350.7$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.54 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ebb…061abacked Yes | 66c | 333.51$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 83 | 63.9%53 W · 30 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7615…d605backed Yes | 38c | 317$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.99 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa19…fb67backed No | 33c | 310$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.5 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.15per pick | 42cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc443…359bbacked Yes | 49c | 265$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.85 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47b7…7368backed Yes | 66c | 245.39$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8aea…ec91backed Yes | 63c | 213.13$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.27 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed Yes | 62c | 200$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124 | 333 | 40.8%136 W · 197 L | -14.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ae8…5794backed Yes | 61c | 196$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2269…6304backed Yes | 64c | 186.34$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 51 | 66.7%34 W · 17 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c82…b56bbacked Yes | 67c | 149.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 55 | 52.7%29 W · 26 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd96…479dbacked Yes | 53c | 148.74$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.83 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27ac…188dbacked No | 75c | 132.63$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.63 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -3.6wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed No | 34c | 110.28$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.98 | 447 | 49.4%221 W · 226 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Yes | 41c | 97.18$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 207 | 53.6%111 W · 96 L | +22.3wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Yes | 64c | 95$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.6 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | -5.1wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf647…c13ebacked Yes | 66c | 75.76$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe333…cf5fbacked Yes | 67c | 74.69$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50ca…bfddbacked Yes | 24c | 66.74$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.05 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +3.0wins | +0.17per pick | 44cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0a92…5a5ebacked Yes | 48c | 62.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b4e…2c1fbacked Yes | 66c | 60.61$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x426a…128bbacked No | 46c | 58.32$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.62 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecc6…a1c4backed Yes | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7181…1b0abacked Yes | 59c | 50.85$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64ae…ead9backed Yes | 65c | 46.47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 63 | 39.7%25 W · 38 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a54…2d16backed Yes | 66c | 45.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8332…dc16backed Yes | 66c | 42.42$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad28…770cbacked Yes | 39c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa383…a2f0backed Yes | 34c | 37.81$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.67 | 91 | 45.1%41 W · 50 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a5c…b3f2backed No | 52c | 36.81$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.76 | 101 | 50.5%51 W · 50 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed No | 35c | 31.84$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.77 | 511 | 36.8%188 W · 323 L | -28.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3179…3d2abacked Yes | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a40…afaabacked Yes | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb14…0da7backed Yes | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd323…64acbacked Yes | 66c | 22.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b1f…4eebbacked No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 86 | 60.5%52 W · 34 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3501…0591backed Yes | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.38per pick | 63cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb539…cb26backed Yes | 62c | 16.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ca3…ec90backed Yes | 65c | 16.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.77 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.29per pick | 62cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x74b4…b283backed Yes | 66c | 15.64$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 62cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Borussia Dortmund vs. 1899 Hoffenheim: Both Teams to Scorethis page
- Borussia Dortmund vs. 1899 Hoffenheim: O/U 1.5Over won
- Borussia Dortmund vs. 1899 Hoffenheim: O/U 2.5Under won
- Borussia Dortmund vs. 1899 Hoffenheim: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: Borussia Dortmund (-1.5)Borussia Dortmund won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.