Bundesliga · resolved market
Borussia Dortmund vs. 1899 Hoffenheim: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x15bd2c9b1c750cd917210379cd31ad9cf3923f7bf5c4a73add5f2bb4581dde4e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,588
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,084
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,588 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7087…c61fbacked Over | 60c | 2,361$1,417 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$944.53 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c7…bd87backed Over | 70c | 2,300$1,616 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$684 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 22c | 1,863$407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$407.05 | 751 | 42.5%319 W · 432 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Under | 14c | 1,500$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 277 | 26.4%73 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 36c | 1,412$506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$506.14 | 536 | 45.9%246 W · 290 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Under | 15c | 206$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.1 | 243 | 22.2%54 W · 189 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed Under | 17c | 200$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 333 | 40.8%136 W · 197 L | -14.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc049…48abbacked Over | 67c | 149.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.25 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | +4.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf3…50d9backed Over | 64c | 109.38$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.38 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb063…c9d1backed Over | 64c | 62.5$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +46.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 28c | 59.74$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.7 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x426a…128bbacked Under | 30c | 48.14$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac53…187ebacked Over | 61c | 40.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…ab7dbacked Over | 73c | 34.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 108 | 63%68 W · 40 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa64c…34f2backed Over | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Borussia Dortmund vs. 1899 Hoffenheim: O/U 1.5this page
- Borussia Dortmund vs. 1899 Hoffenheim: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Borussia Dortmund vs. 1899 Hoffenheim: O/U 2.5Under won
- Borussia Dortmund vs. 1899 Hoffenheim: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: Borussia Dortmund (-1.5)Borussia Dortmund won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.