Bundesliga · resolved market
Spread: Borussia Dortmund (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2143de6d40d13751227a2bc0138bac041fb3d37fbb1bf12925ec58f1e8779673
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Borussia Dortmundof Borussia Dortmund, 1899 Hoffenheim
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,738
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,979
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,738 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Borussia Dortmund | 35c | 10,699$3,742 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,956.38 | 536 | 45.9%246 W · 290 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7087…c61fbacked 1899 Hoffenheim | 64c | 8,000$5,120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,120 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed 1899 Hoffenheim | 68c | 6,914$4,701 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,700.77 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Borussia Dortmund | 34c | 5,079$1,722 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,356.59 | 751 | 42.5%319 W · 432 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe930…b44dbacked 1899 Hoffenheim | 26c | 1,154$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed 1899 Hoffenheim | 1c | 1,131$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 185 | 45.9%85 W · 100 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33c2…9818backed 1899 Hoffenheim | 76c | 708.94$539 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$538.71 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.9wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed 1899 Hoffenheim | 69c | 564.46$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$391.54 | 195 | 44.6%87 W · 108 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Borussia Dortmund | 44c | 547.72$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.03 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06c2…184fbacked Borussia Dortmund | 43c | 544$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.08 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeddf…a953backed Borussia Dortmund | 37c | 442.7$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.9 | 85 | 32.9%28 W · 57 L | -6.1wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee1…e2bbbacked Borussia Dortmund | 39c | 259.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.44 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed Borussia Dortmund | 38c | 199.99$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124 | 333 | 40.8%136 W · 197 L | -14.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce7f…de96backed Borussia Dortmund | 39c | 198.9$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.9 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa469…4985backed 1899 Hoffenheim | 25c | 180$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f43…1754backed 1899 Hoffenheim | 62c | 156.07$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.99 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.16per pick | 62cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d33…e208backed Borussia Dortmund | 36c | 149.47$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.04 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | -4.1wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked 1899 Hoffenheim | 61c | 141.9$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.56 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed 1899 Hoffenheim | 64c | 100$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 93 | 50.5%47 W · 46 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Borussia Dortmund | 36c | 99.31$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.69 | 447 | 49.4%221 W · 226 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb6…ac6abacked 1899 Hoffenheim | 63c | 78.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.18per pick | 54cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Borussia Dortmund | 36c | 74$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.36 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9b…829ebacked Borussia Dortmund | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.14 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | +4.9wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x55be…a73abacked 1899 Hoffenheim | 65c | 50.77$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x042e…f947backed Borussia Dortmund | 37c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 13 | 92.3%12 W · 1 L | +5.3wins | +0.41per pick | 51cpaid | +83.2%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x06a9…1a49backed Borussia Dortmund | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 59 | 55.9%33 W · 26 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a9f…c2a6backed 1899 Hoffenheim | 66c | 37.88$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 61cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x061f…52b0backed Borussia Dortmund | 37c | 32.03$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +170.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x426a…128bbacked 1899 Hoffenheim | 67c | 27.12$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.29 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x855b…8dd0backed 1899 Hoffenheim | 64c | 23.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d27…bd5abacked 1899 Hoffenheim | 66c | 22.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6aac…458bbacked 1899 Hoffenheim | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 67cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a5c…b3f2backed 1899 Hoffenheim | 69c | 19.07$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.19 | 101 | 50.5%51 W · 50 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd128…6b48backed 1899 Hoffenheim | 65c | 18.23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3110…c3f5backed 1899 Hoffenheim | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Borussia Dortmund (-1.5)this page
- Borussia Dortmund vs. 1899 Hoffenheim: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Borussia Dortmund vs. 1899 Hoffenheim: O/U 1.5Over won
- Borussia Dortmund vs. 1899 Hoffenheim: O/U 2.5Under won
- Borussia Dortmund vs. 1899 Hoffenheim: O/U 3.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.