TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs FaZe - Map 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
FaZeof PARIVISION, FaZe
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$295,234
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$394,340

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $295,234 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 277 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf070…ac55backed FaZe58c19,270$11,207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,062.8333343.8%146 W · 187 L-14.0wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-11.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed PARIVISION31c10,736$3,355 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,354.551,40738.9%547 W · 860 L-41.9wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-29.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x96f7…d6aebacked PARIVISION7c10,287$687 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$687.1922129.9%66 W · 155 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick28cpaid-15%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x55d9…832cbacked PARIVISION42c10,000$4,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,2009148.4%44 W · 47 L+5.6wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+7.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6236…08d2backed FaZe58c8,473$4,914 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,558.776450%32 W · 32 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+8.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c63…3cbbbacked FaZe57c8,055$4,622 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,432.3846165.5%302 W · 159 L+0.4wins0.00per pick65cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfaf1…795fbacked FaZe58c7,560$4,385 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,175.229046.9%136 W · 154 L-7.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-8.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed PARIVISION43c7,283$3,122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,121.62,32645.1%1,049 W · 1,277 L-62.2wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaea7…974bbacked PARIVISION41c6,865$2,783 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,782.8366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.28per pick39cpaid+85.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked PARIVISION37c6,450$2,389 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,389.021,51357.2%865 W · 648 L+65.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+0.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed PARIVISION45c5,601$2,521 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,521.182,62451.8%1,359 W · 1,265 L+18.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7460…de6ebacked PARIVISION44c5,485$2,413 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,413.3943951.7%227 W · 212 L+8.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x29b5…cc6cbacked PARIVISION46c5,449$2,498 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,497.525,05055.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L+117.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f2d…2b35backed FaZe55c5,000$2,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,25015251.3%78 W · 74 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2772…ac19backed PARIVISION42c4,684$1,967 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,967.48246.3%38 W · 44 L-0.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid+12.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed FaZe77c4,409$3,390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,019.36,48042.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L-79.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed PARIVISION42c4,029$1,696 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,696.462,06641.5%858 W · 1,208 L-49.5wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2bc1…c26bbacked FaZe55c4,000$2,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,799.993447.1%16 W · 18 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-19.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbaf…f5d1backed PARIVISION24c3,747$912 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$911.661034.3%209 W · 401 L-12.0wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-9.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked PARIVISION45c3,731$1,673 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,672.767,92550.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L+179.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb75b…e377backed FaZe76c3,709$2,816 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$893.8716542.4%70 W · 95 L-7.5wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-16.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xddc3…029cbacked FaZe51c3,627$1,863 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,764.3192456.8%525 W · 399 L+2.0wins0.00per pick57cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc5b…f102backed FaZe75c3,354$2,522 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$832.7173658.2%428 W · 308 L-22.8wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-5.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4411…985ebacked FaZe61c3,184$1,958 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,226.4538454.2%208 W · 176 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked PARIVISION9c2,723$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234.182,13642.9%916 W · 1,220 L-68.1wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-20%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x82d2…beeabacked FaZe53c2,679$1,424 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,254.831,01152.3%529 W · 482 L+27.1wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0f0b…f901backed FaZe56c2,410$1,338 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,071.7935953.2%191 W · 168 L+14.0wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+10.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed PARIVISION42c2,362$985 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$984.621,25942.5%535 W · 724 L+20.6wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ebc…a33dbacked FaZe78c2,299$1,794 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$505.5163157.1%360 W · 271 L+40.1wins+0.06per pick51cpaid-7.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8112…1e6fbacked PARIVISION43c2,109$907 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9072128.6%6 W · 15 L-4.5wins-0.21per pick50cpaid-44.9%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked PARIVISION13c2,012$259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$258.582,22141.3%917 W · 1,304 L-22.6wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-19.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x69f2…a80dbacked FaZe57c1,917$1,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$816.8510262.7%64 W · 38 L+6.9wins+0.07per pick56cpaid+14.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1065…6218backed FaZe54c1,894$1,031 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$862.4148240%193 W · 289 L+8.7wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x46f8…68ccbacked PARIVISION40c1,875$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$750.2820045%90 W · 110 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick47cpaid+1.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x997c…51f3backed PARIVISION39c1,632$642 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$642.1822954.6%125 W · 104 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed PARIVISION44c1,500$663 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$663.052,43444.6%1,085 W · 1,349 L-64.0wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-13.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdfa8…cae6backed FaZe58c1,453$850 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$603.089158.2%53 W · 38 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-6.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc6f1…5729backed FaZe65c1,364$885 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$478.967065.7%46 W · 24 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick68cpaid-2.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4a57…7b0abacked FaZe55c1,255$690 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$564.9222449.6%111 W · 113 L+6.7wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked PARIVISION12c1,255$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.543,91036.6%1,431 W · 2,479 L-197.6wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-29.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xcb9b…6df8backed FaZe54c1,250$675 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$574.9855845.7%255 W · 303 L-11.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3881…804ebacked FaZe54c1,181$642 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$538.091,49651.5%771 W · 725 L-7.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid-0.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x8992…ed1fbacked PARIVISION43c1,163$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5004963.3%31 W · 18 L+6.9wins+0.14per pick49cpaid+53.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xaa6c…a9b3backed PARIVISION43c1,163$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5001,16354.3%631 W · 532 L-38.8wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-6.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed PARIVISION18c1,145$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.725,28731.3%1,657 W · 3,630 L-383.3wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-37.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9307…9da3backed FaZe76c1,116$846 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$269.661,00869.3%699 W · 309 L+152.8wins+0.15per pick54cpaid+18.3%equal weight66+0.15 edge/pick
0xab12…764ebacked FaZe54c1,115$602 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$512.922266.7%148 W · 74 L+12.0wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+7.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0e50…2609backed PARIVISION46c1,087$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50059755.4%331 W · 266 L+7.0wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0e43…6583backed FaZe60c1,061$637 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$424.3413360.2%80 W · 53 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-6.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeebb…0b96backed PARIVISION42c1,059$443 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$443.335839.4%141 W · 217 L+1.3wins0.00per pick39cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae8c…0ce4backed FaZe58c1,034$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$434.48580%4 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.23per pick57cpaid+40.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc2e5…b3a5backed PARIVISION51c1,031$521 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$520.845646.9%214 W · 242 L-1.7wins0.00per pick47cpaid-5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe97…361ebacked FaZe75c979.52$735 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$244.62777.8%21 W · 6 L+2.0wins+0.08per pick70cpaid+9.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8f76…aea6backed FaZe73c964.54$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$264.5414839.2%58 W · 90 L-15.4wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-29.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x24d4…4e1dbacked FaZe54c925.93$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$425.935644.6%25 W · 31 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-9.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed PARIVISION14c918.58$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.122,62630.9%812 W · 1,814 L-105.4wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-29.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc51f…5dc6backed FaZe55c909$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$409.0513454.5%73 W · 61 L-3.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-6.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb875…ac87backed FaZe50c901.92$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$451.9216949.1%83 W · 86 L+7.7wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+5.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5a9c…fc2bbacked PARIVISION35c855.85$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3002821.4%6 W · 22 L-4.2wins-0.15per pick37cpaid-54.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x081e…f76ebacked PARIVISION47c851.06$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40081751.7%422 W · 395 L-6.0wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6770…c3bdbacked PARIVISION16c801.28$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.7863038.6%243 W · 387 L-26.4wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-26.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x538e…c195backed FaZe59c775.81$460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$316.0316349.7%81 W · 82 L-19.7wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-21.5%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x7147…9a01backed PARIVISION28c775.6$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.38825%2 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.11per pick36cpaid+11.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x932c…8658backed FaZe53c770$407 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3637243.1%31 W · 41 L+4.8wins+0.07per pick36cpaid+11.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8705…edbabacked PARIVISION41c763$311 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$311.240140.6%163 W · 238 L-10.0wins-0.02per pick43cpaid+8.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0da…749bbacked PARIVISION14c758.82$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.530223.2%70 W · 232 L-11.2wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-21%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x447d…5eeabacked PARIVISION42c758.75$319 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$318.673647.2%17 W · 19 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-22%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x14f3…0796backed PARIVISION48c755.47$361 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$361.0289046.1%410 W · 480 L-20.7wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdbbb…3df5backed FaZe58c737.48$428 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$309.7410148.5%49 W · 52 L-4.0wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8fec…b125backed PARIVISION20c729.79$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed PARIVISION42c704.76$296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29669445%312 W · 382 L-24.7wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-18.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8a80…11c5backed PARIVISION15c699.17$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.6675438.9%293 W · 461 L-38.9wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-24.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7a3f…6712backed PARIVISION35c660$231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231.221952.5%115 W · 104 L+11.3wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+6.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfeb9…95c9backed FaZe59c644.07$380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$264.0754732.2%176 W · 371 L-28.0wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-18%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf1ee…519cbacked PARIVISION28c607.03$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.373,20245.6%1,459 W · 1,743 L-79.3wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-16%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x42a1…a8e9backed PARIVISION16c604.73$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.9227037.8%102 W · 168 L-9.8wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-26.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9572…efffbacked FaZe56c600$336 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26422241.4%92 W · 130 L-5.3wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-16.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa76e…dcb6backed PARIVISION43c600$258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2581,31053.7%703 W · 607 L+32.0wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe4dd…4f27backed PARIVISION40c599.98$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.9950947%239 W · 270 L+11.3wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x35e7…8331backed PARIVISION44c599.77$262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262.499148.3%479 W · 512 L+9.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed PARIVISION14c559.05$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.592,50841%1,029 W · 1,479 L-115.5wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-22.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked PARIVISION14c553.32$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.384,69143.6%2,043 W · 2,648 L-83.2wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-21.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf32d…bbbbbacked PARIVISION35c548.19$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.2360953.4%325 W · 284 L-31.0wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-11.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x18a4…3a31backed PARIVISION36c547.74$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.7242154.6%230 W · 191 L+13.7wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8ff1…2dd7backed PARIVISION42c522$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.241266.7%8 W · 4 L+2.2wins+0.18per pick48cpaid+49.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3fcc…9f91backed PARIVISION14c519.99$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.912118.2%22 W · 99 L-11.4wins-0.09per pick28cpaid-52.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x26bd…e53bbacked FaZe79c506.33$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.3315047.3%71 W · 79 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-7.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d49…7cc0backed FaZe62c500$310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1903863.2%24 W · 14 L+2.4wins+0.06per pick57cpaid+5.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7e8a…5f49backed FaZe65c500$325 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17510150.5%51 W · 50 L-7.2wins-0.07per pick58cpaid-16.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xae5e…13bebacked PARIVISION40c500$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20020248.5%98 W · 104 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x961a…aa6abacked FaZe51c499.99$255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24527548%132 W · 143 L-0.4wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe9b5…f95bbacked PARIVISION44c499.99$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2208149.4%40 W · 41 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9b96…4389backed FaZe56c499.98$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$219.9937557.3%215 W · 160 L-16.4wins-0.04per pick62cpaid-8.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1991…348ebacked PARIVISION11c499.98$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.6619150.3%96 W · 95 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-13.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa245…2152backed PARIVISION47c489.36$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2307337%27 W · 46 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf7c2…9b8dbacked PARIVISION47c487.36$229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22947147.3%223 W · 248 L+10.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked PARIVISION43c487.26$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.311,77959.1%1,052 W · 727 L+104.8wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x505f…645ebacked PARIVISION12c480.71$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.192,60452.6%1,371 W · 1,233 L+98.0wins+0.04per pick49cpaid-3.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x664a…fc5fbacked PARIVISION19c452.29$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.3740137.2%149 W · 252 L-17.6wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-26.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x751b…73fdbacked PARIVISION41c439.98$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.3925655.1%141 W · 115 L+4.6wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.