TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs FaZe - Map 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
PARIVISIONof PARIVISION, FaZe
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$558,817
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$634,153

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $558,817 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 465 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf070…ac55backed FaZe43c35,918$15,356 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,356.1633343.8%146 W · 187 L-14.0wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-11.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed FaZe44c20,355$8,988 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,987.5281843.2%353 W · 465 L+23.0wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ebc…a33dbacked PARIVISION57c18,245$10,446 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,799.4963157.1%360 W · 271 L+40.1wins+0.06per pick51cpaid-7.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8718…5040backed FaZe70c12,536$8,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,799.978670.9%61 W · 25 L+5.3wins+0.06per pick65cpaid+9.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed PARIVISION54c10,613$5,687 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,926.326,48042.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L-79.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa4fd…748bbacked FaZe43c10,312$4,460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,460.243834.2%13 W · 25 L-4.4wins-0.12per pick46cpaid-30.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8f76…aea6backed PARIVISION57c9,465$5,383 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,082.1114839.2%58 W · 90 L-15.4wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-29.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x997c…51f3backed PARIVISION57c8,822$5,020 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,801.7822954.6%125 W · 104 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4572…83ffbacked PARIVISION59c8,480$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,479.8432348.9%158 W · 165 L-11.5wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-6.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x67bb…b6efbacked PARIVISION57c8,046$4,586 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,459.8776058%441 W · 319 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-1.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x9cb9…32f2backed PARIVISION56c8,000$4,480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,52030340.3%122 W · 181 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-12%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed PARIVISION75c7,229$5,412 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,816.881,40738.9%547 W · 860 L-41.9wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-29.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7460…de6ebacked PARIVISION56c7,109$3,981 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,127.843951.7%227 W · 212 L+8.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x37e9…eedebacked FaZe43c6,706$2,884 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,883.68556.5%48 W · 37 L+7.7wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+27.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb57f…0c96backed FaZe46c5,233$2,407 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,40721545.6%98 W · 117 L+8.7wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+8.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcd66…664fbacked PARIVISION56c5,000$2,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,199.9838358.7%225 W · 158 L-7.9wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-2.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8cbf…0eb4backed FaZe43c5,000$2,150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,149.9537157.7%214 W · 157 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x87da…53d1backed PARIVISION55c4,261$2,333 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,927.6837646.3%174 W · 202 L-17.2wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-9.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe548…a9febacked PARIVISION58c4,100$2,378 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,7221861.1%11 W · 7 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+15.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4411…985ebacked PARIVISION60c4,048$2,440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,607.5538454.2%208 W · 176 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd96…e623backed PARIVISION57c4,000$2,260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,74021055.7%117 W · 93 L+12.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+21.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9c52…1a59backed PARIVISION57c3,851$2,195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,655.939550.5%48 W · 47 L-4.4wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-10.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xddc3…029cbacked FaZe42c3,500$1,473 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,473.392456.8%525 W · 399 L+2.0wins0.00per pick57cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x66b1…340fbacked FaZe44c3,340$1,463 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,462.761,15748.2%558 W · 599 L+3.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6236…08d2backed FaZe44c3,316$1,464 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,4646450%32 W · 32 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+8.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb077…8fe8backed FaZe44c3,311$1,461 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,460.617249.4%85 W · 87 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdbaf…f5d1backed FaZe39c3,137$1,210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,209.7661034.3%209 W · 401 L-12.0wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-9.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd0ac…a2c9backed PARIVISION56c3,083$1,726 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,356.525455.6%30 W · 24 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked PARIVISION56c2,912$1,635 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,277.652,22141.3%917 W · 1,304 L-22.6wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-19.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed PARIVISION70c2,822$1,969 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$852.252,32645.1%1,049 W · 1,277 L-62.2wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc0f1…8680backed FaZe60c2,773$1,668 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,667.732,52243%1,085 W · 1,437 L+42.7wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2765…7ee4backed PARIVISION57c2,740$1,562 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,178.264552.9%341 W · 304 L+27.2wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+9.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked FaZe48c2,670$1,269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,269.012,34942.5%998 W · 1,351 L-72.7wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-20.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x81f4…8300backed PARIVISION56c2,551$1,429 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,122.447459.5%44 W · 30 L+6.1wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+21.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x29b5…cc6cbacked PARIVISION52c2,537$1,319 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,217.765,05055.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L+117.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3881…804ebacked PARIVISION54c2,481$1,340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,141.311,49651.5%771 W · 725 L-7.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid-0.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x447d…5eeabacked PARIVISION54c2,350$1,269 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,081.033647.2%17 W · 19 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-22%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x751b…73fdbacked PARIVISION56c2,284$1,289 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$994.6225655.1%141 W · 115 L+4.6wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6978…9897backed FaZe50c2,236$1,115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,11512449.2%61 W · 63 L-7.1wins-0.06per pick55cpaid-9.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x495d…68d8backed FaZe45c2,227$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00017554.9%96 W · 79 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xab12…764ebacked PARIVISION57c2,180$1,232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$948.222266.7%148 W · 74 L+12.0wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+7.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x781d…201bbacked FaZe43c2,174$937 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9376339.7%25 W · 38 L-3.9wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-19.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x26f8…3452backed FaZe56c2,141$1,191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,190.9919949.7%99 W · 100 L-9.6wins-0.05per pick55cpaid+14.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x664a…fc5fbacked FaZe38c2,114$811 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$810.6340137.2%149 W · 252 L-17.6wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-26.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x31cb…2442backed PARIVISION49c2,090$1,018 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,072.179748.5%47 W · 50 L+3.5wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc698…6794backed FaZe25c2,084$519 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$518.871936.8%7 W · 12 L-1.4wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-27.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa07d…9a01backed FaZe46c2,066$959 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$958.7543933.7%148 W · 291 L-0.9wins0.00per pick34cpaid+1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x77ac…1bf6backed FaZe44c2,023$889 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$888.6627961.3%171 W · 108 L+12.6wins+0.05per pick57cpaid+4.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9572…efffbacked PARIVISION41c2,002$819 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,182.8422241.4%92 W · 130 L-5.3wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-16.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x69bf…0c5dbacked PARIVISION62c2,000$1,240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$759.9917148%82 W · 89 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2bc1…c26bbacked FaZe44c1,939$853 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$853.233447.1%16 W · 18 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-19.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x69f2…a80dbacked PARIVISION57c1,930$1,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$829.8210262.7%64 W · 38 L+6.9wins+0.07per pick56cpaid+14.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xba5e…f9c4backed FaZe21c1,928$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4006546.2%30 W · 35 L-0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid-11.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb36f…53d0backed PARIVISION56c1,834$1,030 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$803.8921346.9%100 W · 113 L-8.7wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-8.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5ba6…5e3fbacked PARIVISION58c1,800$1,044 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7561963.2%12 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9ca…6a8bbacked PARIVISION56c1,750$980 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77075245.5%342 W · 410 L-21.8wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-6.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaa0b…2debbacked FaZe46c1,735$798 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79835745.4%162 W · 195 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4620…ea85backed FaZe18c1,683$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3003748.6%18 W · 19 L+3.6wins+0.10per pick39cpaid+30.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x77f6…dbd1backed PARIVISION57c1,667$950 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$716.6717240.7%70 W · 102 L-9.3wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-12.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked PARIVISION59c1,600$945 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$654.51,51357.2%865 W · 648 L+65.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+0.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xaa6c…a9b3backed PARIVISION63c1,596$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$596.161,16354.3%631 W · 532 L-38.8wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-6.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf4ec…c574backed FaZe44c1,591$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70048350.9%246 W · 237 L-20.9wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-10%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbe2b…20e4backed FaZe18c1,589$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$284.899635.4%34 W · 62 L-4.8wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-25.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xae2b…9cc3backed PARIVISION56c1,589$890 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$699.1621854.1%118 W · 100 L+9.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+13.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1b9a…a06bbacked FaZe8c1,530$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.3669624%167 W · 529 L+2.2wins0.00per pick24cpaid-7.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb75b…e377backed PARIVISION77c1,529$1,184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$345.0616542.4%70 W · 95 L-7.5wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-16.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x19ae…395cbacked FaZe46c1,521$697 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$696.9924038.3%92 W · 148 L-9.6wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-11.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6401…f240backed FaZe44c1,517$668 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$667.6535054.6%191 W · 159 L+17.3wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+16.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2cad…eb66backed PARIVISION56c1,500$840 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66012571.2%89 W · 36 L+11.9wins+0.09per pick62cpaid+10.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x82d2…beeabacked PARIVISION54c1,484$794 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$690.061,01152.3%529 W · 482 L+27.1wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5c62…84fcbacked FaZe56c1,478$835 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$834.5260%0 W · 6 L-2.1wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf0da…749bbacked FaZe25c1,355$338 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$337.8230223.2%70 W · 232 L-11.2wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-21%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8056…b64dbacked PARIVISION58c1,332$776 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$556.751,62344.9%728 W · 895 L+4.4wins0.00per pick45cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9dff…7fecbacked FaZe44c1,309$576 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$576.145556.4%31 W · 24 L+4.8wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+15.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed PARIVISION25c1,300$326 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$973.652,62630.9%812 W · 1,814 L-105.4wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-29.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbbe7…121bbacked PARIVISION51c1,288$655 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$632.6715655.1%86 W · 70 L+6.0wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed FaZe9c1,283$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.492,43444.6%1,085 W · 1,349 L-64.0wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-13.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5592…aedebacked PARIVISION63c1,283$813 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$470.119357%110 W · 83 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd64d…d51ebacked FaZe61c1,262$766 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$766.441060%6 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick68cpaid-15.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb1b8…9d1fbacked FaZe2c1,250$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2532832.3%106 W · 222 L+10.6wins+0.03per pick29cpaid+15.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xae8c…0ce4backed PARIVISION56c1,250$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$550580%4 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.23per pick57cpaid+40.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x505f…645ebacked PARIVISION50c1,217$605 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$611.542,60452.6%1,371 W · 1,233 L+98.0wins+0.04per pick49cpaid-3.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd676…104cbacked FaZe45c1,200$537 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$536.9911650%58 W · 58 L-4.2wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-11.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfe97…361ebacked PARIVISION74c1,165$866 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$299.332777.8%21 W · 6 L+2.0wins+0.08per pick70cpaid+9.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x18a4…3a31backed PARIVISION65c1,130$740 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$390.7442154.6%230 W · 191 L+13.7wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xedfa…fd66backed PARIVISION57c1,127$639 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$487.346238.7%24 W · 38 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-20.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9307…9da3backed PARIVISION50c1,117$559 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$557.761,00869.3%699 W · 309 L+152.8wins+0.15per pick54cpaid+18.3%equal weight66+0.15 edge/pick
0x42a1…a8e9backed FaZe30c1,115$337 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$336.7227037.8%102 W · 168 L-9.8wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-26.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1572…7991backed FaZe42c1,023$434 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$434.266546.2%30 W · 35 L-4.4wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-21.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xba50…ad0bbacked FaZe45c1,000$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45076748%368 W · 399 L-21.8wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x94cb…64e3backed FaZe46c1,000$460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46015838%60 W · 98 L+6.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5733…4c87backed FaZe46c999.58$460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$459.715836.2%21 W · 37 L-4.3wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-16.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3090…be73backed PARIVISION69c994.99$682 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$312.974252.4%22 W · 20 L+2.5wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+20.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x96f7…d6aebacked FaZe16c991.34$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.4822129.9%66 W · 155 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick28cpaid-15%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1991…348ebacked PARIVISION68c983.96$673 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$311.1719150.3%96 W · 95 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-13.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed FaZe43c963.98$415 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$414.511,25942.5%535 W · 724 L+20.6wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0e50…2609backed PARIVISION52c961.54$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$461.5459755.4%331 W · 266 L+7.0wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed PARIVISION53c961.38$508 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$453.815,28731.3%1,657 W · 3,630 L-383.3wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-37.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc8ad…be4ebacked PARIVISION57c900$513 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38725651.2%131 W · 125 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xb819…cc67backed FaZe15c883.54$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.2424155.6%134 W · 107 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-2.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.