Bundesliga · resolved market
Will Union Berlin win on 2025-09-21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5ca64358bf1aefe3a241e45bcecfd3ecfde19454e815671f547b14ef8045fab7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,526
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,834
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,526 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3e73…c4ecbacked No | 4c | 2,050$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +287.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Yes | 19c | 2,050$389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,660.5 | 71 | 11.3%8 W · 63 L | -5.6wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a4c…6579backed No | 3c | 1,945$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.45 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.15per pick | 28cpaid | -11%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 18c | 1,935$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,589.31 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 31c | 1,038$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.14 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7474…4ebabacked No | 17c | 655.98$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.1 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked No | 23c | 592.13$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.14 | 148 | 46.6%69 W · 79 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03f7…c0ccbacked No | 33c | 500$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedb1…3fddbacked No | 24c | 456.21$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88de…1091backed Yes | 17c | 440$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$365.2 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Yes | 18c | 399.98$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.99 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 22cpaid | +29%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked No | 67c | 373.13$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 380 | 55.8%212 W · 168 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e10…70f4backed No | 52c | 341.81$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.8 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c81…dcd3backed No | 54c | 312.3$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.44 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2272…2e9cbacked Yes | 16c | 297.62$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc81…0ababacked Yes | 20c | 250$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 19cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7555…eb08backed Yes | 45c | 225.91$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.99 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcef7…e7d7backed Yes | 55c | 205$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.65 | 40 | 62.5%25 W · 15 L | +7.2wins | +0.18per pick | 44cpaid | +98.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed No | 41c | 200$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed No | 14c | 187$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.18 | 447 | 49.4%221 W · 226 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84d9…76dbbacked Yes | 19c | 173.68$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.68 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5e1…7edabacked No | 40c | 168.08$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.54 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed No | 68c | 150$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.7 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -4.8wins | -0.17per pick | 68cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7580…dc37backed Yes | 58c | 121.53$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.04 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Yes | 28c | 121.53$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.5 | 550 | 58.7%323 W · 227 L | +23.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x897b…151ebacked Yes | 71c | 112.08$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.08 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +72.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…06c9backed Yes | 42c | 100.12$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.12 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +5.1wins | +0.34per pick | 46cpaid | +89.7%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xed61…9aa3backed No | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 150 | 64%96 W · 54 L | +25.0wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +53.3%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Yes | 18c | 94.78$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.73 | 101 | 28.7%29 W · 72 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe947…2cf3backed No | 67c | 89.96$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 68cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe8…0fedbacked No | 46c | 83.33$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.58 | 103 | 47.6%49 W · 54 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cf…f5aebacked No | 60c | 80$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x761a…d9babacked No | 67c | 77.76$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8191…8a35backed Yes | 33c | 72.76$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.75 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +53.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…4befbacked No | 59c | 59.41$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.05 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbc…f458backed No | 46c | 30.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.14 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -4.9wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -49%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x851d…1f74backed Yes | 54c | 21.4$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x16b3…403bbacked No | 57c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf744…7392backed No | 67c | 17.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -2.6wins | -0.23per pick | 69cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Yes | 74c | 17.08$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.47 | 191 | 53.9%103 W · 88 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11d7…52e1backed Yes | 78c | 14.38$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.18 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Union Berlin win on 2025-09-21?this page
- Will Eintracht Frankfurt vs. Union Berlin end in a draw?No won
- Will Eintracht Frankfurt win on 2025-09-21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.