Tennis · resolved market
European Open: Lorenzo Musetti vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8fcfec806b601eb1dad21bb6821aaa72d3173715585da5cfb0cab49368336c82
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Perricardof Musetti, Perricard
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,140
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,856
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,140 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Perricard | 48c | 12,132$5,772 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,360.65 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ba6…0f07backed Musetti | 64c | 10,000$6,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,399.78 | 669 | 49.6%332 W · 337 L | -11.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3868…5683backed Musetti | 39c | 2,244$880 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$880.2 | 73 | 30.1%22 W · 51 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Perricard | 66c | 1,921$1,269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$651.72 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f3b…e349backed Perricard | 37c | 1,916$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,215.71 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +136.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3df5…b34abacked Musetti | 45c | 1,547$702 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$702 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6c…7e66backed Perricard | 62c | 1,547$962 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$584.88 | 1,193 | 48.9%583 W · 610 L | +9.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef5…39edbacked Musetti | 29c | 1,359$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394.11 | 257 | 22.2%57 W · 200 L | -12.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd82a…5fcfbacked Musetti | 62c | 1,104$690 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$689.82 | 189 | 43.4%82 W · 107 L | -8.8wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf5c…48f9backed Musetti | 41c | 1,000$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410 | 154 | 47.4%73 W · 81 L | +14.1wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Musetti | 63c | 939.31$592 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$591.77 | 364 | 40.9%149 W · 215 L | -13.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc30…c8a5backed Musetti | 13c | 799.4$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 189 | 33.9%64 W · 125 L | -8.5wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Perricard | 37c | 796$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$501.48 | 139 | 35.3%49 W · 90 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ef5…325ebacked Musetti | 65c | 770.08$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.55 | 99 | 61.6%61 W · 38 L | +4.4wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95b8…47c9backed Perricard | 39c | 753.85$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$459.85 | 284 | 43%122 W · 162 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56fb…3b99backed Musetti | 33c | 750$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.5 | 85 | 30.6%26 W · 59 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked Musetti | 38c | 702.8$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.32 | 288 | 33.3%96 W · 192 L | -10.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Perricard | 34c | 609.09$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$402 | 627 | 42.4%266 W · 361 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Musetti | 41c | 600$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246 | 819 | 38.9%319 W · 500 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf332…3c89backed Perricard | 38c | 599.99$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$374.99 | 401 | 41.9%168 W · 233 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x761a…d9babacked Musetti | 64c | 547.52$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Perricard | 36c | 529.39$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337.93 | 2,865 | 44.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L | +6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85e2…0980backed Perricard | 71c | 400$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116 | 145 | 46.2%67 W · 78 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9354…6502backed Musetti | 37c | 382.69$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.4 | 755 | 47.8%361 W · 394 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb478…ac0abacked Perricard | 52c | 286.94$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.94 | 360 | 47.2%170 W · 190 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf575…e0ebbacked Musetti | 40c | 281.7$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.68 | 204 | 31.9%65 W · 139 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…a70cbacked Perricard | 36c | 277.78$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.78 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | +4.1wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Perricard | 39c | 256.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.41 | 731 | 47.9%350 W · 381 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61c1…0513backed Musetti | 41c | 244.02$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,287 | 60.7%781 W · 506 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c7d…5aeebacked Musetti | 41c | 243.9$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 44 | 22.7%10 W · 34 L | -7.1wins | -0.16per pick | 39cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd941…bc46backed Musetti | 43c | 232.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0283…e7d3backed Musetti | 44c | 227.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 202 | 57.4%116 W · 86 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb7d…25f8backed Musetti | 43c | 195.96$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.39 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Musetti | 36c | 168.73$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.94 | 6,720 | 36.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L | -95.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed Musetti | 52c | 159.18$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83 | 312 | 55.4%173 W · 139 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb911…a649backed Musetti | 63c | 158.73$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb1e…230abacked Perricard | 36c | 150$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 318 | 19.2%61 W · 257 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Musetti | 8c | 148.03$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.08 | 245 | 44.9%110 W · 135 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ee7…12c5backed Perricard | 43c | 123.15$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.75 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b55…d74bbacked Perricard | 38c | 116.19$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.04 | 287 | 47.7%137 W · 150 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc3…5a00backed Perricard | 67c | 110$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.3 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7be1…200ebacked Musetti | 33c | 106.06$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 251 | 52.6%132 W · 119 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4731…cba8backed Perricard | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 108 | 46.3%50 W · 58 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb75d…9d01backed Musetti | 46c | 82.61$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 121 | 54.5%66 W · 55 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50f7…7272backed Musetti | 63c | 81.25$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.19 | 92 | 63%58 W · 34 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Musetti | 62c | 74.35$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.07 | 1,655 | 50.1%829 W · 826 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa263…6cf0backed Musetti | 32c | 70.44$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.54 | 175 | 38.3%67 W · 108 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f83…a491backed Musetti | 57c | 70$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.9 | 257 | 43.6%112 W · 145 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2db8…e042backed Musetti | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 749 | 61.8%463 W · 286 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa318…0c71backed Perricard | 68c | 60$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Perricard | 37c | 53.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.02 | 1,489 | 32.6%486 W · 1,003 L | +22.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93cb…3485backed Perricard | 37c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 306 | 39.9%122 W · 184 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe64f…5976backed Musetti | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 149 | 40.9%61 W · 88 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Perricard | 33c | 49.51$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.22 | 951 | 40.1%381 W · 570 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe0…7f8bbacked Musetti | 44c | 48.23$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb6b…7b61backed Musetti | 34c | 46$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d81…259bbacked Perricard | 37c | 40.54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.54 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…14a3backed Perricard | 37c | 40.54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.54 | 383 | 56.9%218 W · 165 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb740…2ec1backed Musetti | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 351 | 57%200 W · 151 L | -13.4wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a64…bb41backed Musetti | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa98d…745ebacked Perricard | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 52 | 32.7%17 W · 35 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…05f5backed Perricard | 36c | 29.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +3.9wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2f0e…7b1fbacked Musetti | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 54 | 59.3%32 W · 22 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7068…8236backed Musetti | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18e2…ca98backed Musetti | 67c | 29.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 94 | 63.8%60 W · 34 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19ed…6032backed Perricard | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e10…5d4abacked Perricard | 66c | 18.09$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6eb3…2868backed Musetti | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 55cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.