Tennis · resolved market
BNP Paribas Nordic Open: Elias Ymer vs Denis Shapovalov
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6ec1d39c672e8131ea35c3b1c4b08f1488d42dc2cabb1ef0d7d447cce3e67242
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Shapovalovof Ymer, Shapovalov
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $69,772
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $75,959
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $69,772 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Shapovalov | 79c | 10,100$7,974 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,126.2 | 245 | 44.9%110 W · 135 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Ymer | 20c | 6,096$1,246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,246.09 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Shapovalov | 75c | 4,115$3,101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,014.03 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3868…5683backed Ymer | 23c | 4,000$920 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$920 | 73 | 30.1%22 W · 51 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd82a…5fcfbacked Ymer | 34c | 2,843$965 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$965.04 | 189 | 43.4%82 W · 107 L | -8.8wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d76…9168backed Ymer | 30c | 2,793$828 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$828.48 | 375 | 40.8%153 W · 222 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96f6…ce43backed Shapovalov | 77c | 2,740$2,109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$630.1 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 71cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xade8…b0bdbacked Ymer | 34c | 2,299$778 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$777.78 | 158 | 32.3%51 W · 107 L | -13.6wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbcb9…4734backed Shapovalov | 77c | 2,161$1,663 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$498.32 | 119 | 43.7%52 W · 67 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd589…27c2backed Ymer | 37c | 2,000$740 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$740 | 92 | 45.7%42 W · 50 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ada…43b0backed Shapovalov | 76c | 1,775$1,354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420.8 | 238 | 52.1%124 W · 114 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef5…39edbacked Ymer | 24c | 1,732$416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$415.71 | 257 | 22.2%57 W · 200 L | -12.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ba6…0f07backed Ymer | 8c | 1,726$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.04 | 669 | 49.6%332 W · 337 L | -11.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Ymer | 31c | 1,620$505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$505.09 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x991a…50b1backed Shapovalov | 79c | 1,296$1,026 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.95 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Ymer | 24c | 1,149$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.14 | 6,720 | 36.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L | -95.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Ymer | 14c | 1,112$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.6 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70a1…978abacked Ymer | 24c | 1,009$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 884 | 46.8%414 W · 470 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc3…5a00backed Ymer | 22c | 1,001$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.28 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcfe…44b5backed Ymer | 14c | 1,000$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.99 | 76 | 53.9%41 W · 35 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56fb…3b99backed Ymer | 23c | 1,000$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 85 | 30.6%26 W · 59 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x761a…d9babacked Shapovalov | 56c | 887.93$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$387.93 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Ymer | 33c | 770$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.1 | 101 | 38.6%39 W · 62 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x347a…83e3backed Ymer | 19c | 665$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.5 | 313 | 39.9%125 W · 188 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…0a37backed Ymer | 17c | 653$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.15 | 227 | 23.8%54 W · 173 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…ff0ebacked Ymer | 32c | 600$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192 | 591 | 51.6%305 W · 286 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc30…c8a5backed Ymer | 25c | 600$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 189 | 33.9%64 W · 125 L | -8.5wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Shapovalov | 76c | 560.35$428 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.39 | 1,039 | 54.6%567 W · 472 L | +37.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13ce…35f0backed Shapovalov | 77c | 510.74$393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.47 | 79 | 81%64 W · 15 L | +7.9wins | +0.10per pick | 71cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2be4…01adbacked Ymer | 30c | 479.73$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.81 | 67 | 47.8%32 W · 35 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf575…e0ebbacked Ymer | 26c | 438.08$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.9 | 204 | 31.9%65 W · 139 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f78…bbe8backed Ymer | 23c | 434.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 54 | 50%27 W · 27 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9095…2f3fbacked Ymer | 49c | 404.41$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -2.8wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb1e…230abacked Ymer | 38c | 400$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.96 | 318 | 19.2%61 W · 257 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7180…bdbabacked Shapovalov | 69c | 288.69$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.69 | 61 | 45.9%28 W · 33 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30ef…70dfbacked Ymer | 22c | 267.61$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.61 | 441 | 25.4%112 W · 329 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f19…aec2backed Shapovalov | 72c | 262$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 58 | 69%40 W · 18 L | +5.8wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Shapovalov | 76c | 214$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.36 | 951 | 40.1%381 W · 570 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Shapovalov | 75c | 200$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 627 | 42.4%266 W · 361 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99fc…ec26backed Ymer | 54c | 184.23$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 645 | 40.2%259 W · 386 L | -19.6wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Ymer | 37c | 160$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.4 | 2,982 | 39.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L | -109.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x110d…cd01backed Shapovalov | 63c | 159.05$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.05 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60a1…1485backed Ymer | 38c | 156.38$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbaa…59b8backed Ymer | 32c | 155.52$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 324 | 48.1%156 W · 168 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ba0…ff3abacked Shapovalov | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.85 | 431 | 58.2%251 W · 180 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2d…82f1backed Ymer | 27c | 145.83$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dae…a50bbacked Ymer | 29c | 139.48$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.82 | 157 | 52.2%82 W · 75 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6c…7e66backed Ymer | 28c | 138.89$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.89 | 1,193 | 48.9%583 W · 610 L | +9.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61c1…0513backed Shapovalov | 72c | 138.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.89 | 1,287 | 60.7%781 W · 506 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Shapovalov | 67c | 129$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 439 | 48.5%213 W · 226 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa61d…df1abacked Shapovalov | 78c | 128.21$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 104 | 57.7%60 W · 44 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Shapovalov | 78c | 128.21$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 731 | 47.9%350 W · 381 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Shapovalov | 76c | 110.49$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.12 | 2,865 | 44.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L | +6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9354…6502backed Ymer | 26c | 106.04$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.72 | 755 | 47.8%361 W · 394 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa98d…745ebacked Ymer | 40c | 88$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 52 | 32.7%17 W · 35 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb911…a649backed Ymer | 24c | 81.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.62 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x97be…7580backed Ymer | 23c | 61.96$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +378.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50f7…7272backed Ymer | 24c | 57.42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.78 | 92 | 63%58 W · 34 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…05f5backed Ymer | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +3.9wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ee…8067backed Ymer | 26c | 46.15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 499 | 55.1%275 W · 224 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01cd…c56cbacked Shapovalov | 78c | 37.18$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.18 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.