Ligue 1 · resolved market
Will FC Lorient win on 2025-09-27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6f3926cd0f15219d03040373219ae8d18bf88875cbea43945345a7d07183583b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $120,855
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $113,842
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $120,855 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe38e…c29dbacked No | 78c | 67,500$52,650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52,650 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cda…6e17backed Yes | 22c | 44,849$9,867 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34,982.29 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Yes | 24c | 19,863$4,767 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,095.82 | 82 | 42.7%35 W · 47 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 27c | 13,774$3,748 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,026.33 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf519…906bbacked No | 80c | 5,000$4,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,000 | 143 | 46.9%67 W · 76 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a87…4e00backed Yes | 20c | 4,000$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,200 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 22c | 3,773$830 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$829.94 | 215 | 60%129 W · 86 L | +15.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Yes | 17c | 3,133$523 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,609.53 | 69 | 60.9%42 W · 27 L | +5.4wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea8…1fbfbacked No | 16c | 2,282$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373.34 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf142…57e7backed Yes | 17c | 1,000$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$830 | 146 | 54.1%79 W · 67 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed No | 15c | 763.33$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.3 | 202 | 32.7%66 W · 136 L | -10.9wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 17c | 686.63$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$569.87 | 231 | 53.2%123 W · 108 L | +16.2wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa2a8…8466backed No | 80c | 631$505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$504.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1d9…4ce3backed Yes | 20c | 609.15$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$487.32 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88de…1091backed Yes | 17c | 480$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$398.4 | 68 | 35.3%24 W · 44 L | +6.5wins | +0.10per pick | 26cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked No | 39c | 473.4$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.65 | 260 | 40.4%105 W · 155 L | -6.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x994f…2f7dbacked Yes | 79c | 440$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.4 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -3.6wins | -0.24per pick | 64cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5e10…70f4backed No | 21c | 424.04$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.64 | 90 | 51.1%46 W · 44 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 23c | 338.76$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.21 | 1,415 | 40.8%577 W · 838 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed No | 30c | 333.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.8wins | -0.23per pick | 57cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 11c | 260$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 162 | 42%68 W · 94 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f9e…00b1backed No | 80c | 250$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x761a…d9babacked No | 80c | 250$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x330b…69f1backed No | 80c | 250$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Yes | 19c | 174.3$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.42 | 79 | 26.6%21 W · 58 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa40f…2fa3backed Yes | 77c | 123.38$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.38 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10f1…958ebacked No | 80c | 100$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30a0…a458backed No | 76c | 100$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -3.0wins | -0.21per pick | 57cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb125…69ebbacked No | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b48…58a6backed Yes | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 77cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed No | 76c | 66$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.16 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c5…b378backed Yes | 77c | 64.94$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.94 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Yes | 17c | 59$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.97 | 229 | 27.5%63 W · 166 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf10f…004dbacked No | 80c | 50$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 39 | 66.7%26 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8fe…ba40backed No | 79c | 50$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.5 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e89…edfcbacked Yes | 79c | 49.37$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.37 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 60cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x881a…8d6dbacked Yes | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | -4.9wins | -0.12per pick | 64cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb32b…522dbacked No | 80c | 15.63$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 70cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC Lorient win on 2025-09-27?this page
- Will AS Monaco FC win on 2025-09-27?No won
- Will FC Lorient vs. AS Monaco FC end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.