Ligue 1 · resolved market
Will FC Lorient vs. AS Monaco FC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb04ce0e2bfc1997a0ea9d76612be10bea12c6522c7a94d95d2d0f5f51ed134a2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,322
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,856
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,322 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Yes | 12c | 3,679$455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$455.5 | 82 | 42.7%35 W · 47 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a87…4e00backed Yes | 24c | 1,000$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked No | 76c | 790$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.6 | 69 | 60.9%42 W · 27 L | +5.4wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x85e2…0980backed Yes | 21c | 523.81$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 78c | 512.89$403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.28 | 1,415 | 40.8%577 W · 838 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 24c | 503$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.83 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad46…65a7backed Yes | 22c | 463.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabf9…4ab5backed Yes | 18c | 246.89$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e10…70f4backed Yes | 13c | 200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 90 | 51.1%46 W · 44 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf42a…8470backed Yes | 21c | 150$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 27 | 11.1%3 W · 24 L | -3.1wins | -0.11per pick | 23cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa13…f778backed No | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9d3…f492backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8953…e093backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8721…c2b1backed No | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked No | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 260 | 40.4%105 W · 155 L | -6.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2b6…9d5ebacked No | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc4…701abacked Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72fe…e2cebacked No | 75c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 68cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x26ae…97b8backed No | 77c | 19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.37 | 51 | 62.7%32 W · 19 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC Lorient vs. AS Monaco FC end in a draw?this page
- Will AS Monaco FC win on 2025-09-27?No won
- Will FC Lorient win on 2025-09-27?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.