Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will Fenerbahce win on 2025-09-24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd1f34c4ecb50161d88d8d674d0c8c41eb325065a39ebbe878d72b71d32221692
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,660
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,234
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,660 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Yes | 42c | 7,866$3,306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,305.7 | 201 | 32.3%65 W · 136 L | -9.9wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa987…141dbacked No | 57c | 5,000$2,850 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,150 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -19%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…5b15backed No | 57c | 5,000$2,850 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,150 | 57 | 63.2%36 W · 21 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4dbe…af34backed Yes | 43c | 5,000$2,163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,162.74 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 43c | 4,979$2,141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,140.97 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f91…907fbacked No | 58c | 4,873$2,825 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,047.82 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Yes | 42c | 3,037$1,276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,275.57 | 245 | 57.6%141 W · 104 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb230…4193backed No | 56c | 3,000$1,680 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,320 | 92 | 65.2%60 W · 32 L | +6.1wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x33c2…9818backed No | 66c | 1,785$1,183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$602.3 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -3.9wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0f…4faabacked No | 56c | 1,611$902 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$708.8 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +71.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked No | 56c | 1,602$897 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$704.88 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 56c | 1,288$727 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$561.23 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea8…1fbfbacked Yes | 17c | 1,113$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.93 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe87a…6d01backed No | 66c | 1,100$726 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$374 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27a9…8781backed Yes | 44c | 904.28$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Yes | 42c | 903.02$379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379.23 | 122 | 69.7%85 W · 37 L | +14.5wins | +0.12per pick | 58cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed No | 76c | 748.87$568 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.88 | 122 | 47.5%58 W · 64 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf142…57e7backed No | 56c | 687.16$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.35 | 200 | 50%100 W · 100 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…4877backed Yes | 44c | 536.5$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Yes | 45c | 450$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.5 | 84 | 56%47 W · 37 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +17%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7879…4345backed Yes | 42c | 423.63$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.92 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.7wins | -0.27per pick | 57cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked Yes | 43c | 399.99$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172 | 62 | 41.9%26 W · 36 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c68…56dcbacked Yes | 13c | 391.8$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x761a…d9babacked No | 57c | 350.88$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.88 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.15per pick | 69cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f43…ed78backed Yes | 45c | 310.93$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4487…08c6backed Yes | 45c | 302.62$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.18 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e10…70f4backed No | 56c | 208.02$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.19 | 96 | 52.1%50 W · 46 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6692…1125backed Yes | 44c | 200$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedb1…3fddbacked Yes | 11c | 181.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed No | 57c | 174$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.13 | 379 | 26.1%99 W · 280 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf575…e0ebbacked No | 58c | 171.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.19 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac43…4925backed Yes | 45c | 133.33$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 85 | 43.5%37 W · 48 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x639e…a9d4backed Yes | 44c | 113.64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.16per pick | 38cpaid | +61.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf04…ad65backed Yes | 45c | 111.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeecc…6930backed Yes | 44c | 102.22$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.3 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe042…5e6bbacked Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.28 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc71e…f450backed No | 63c | 86.84$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.9 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71fd…88a3backed Yes | 42c | 80.95$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb32f…4f6cbacked Yes | 40c | 80$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea5…67e8backed Yes | 44c | 58.18$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…14a3backed Yes | 44c | 56.82$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 54 | 59.3%32 W · 22 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1677…1126backed Yes | 41c | 51.19$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 158 | 46.8%74 W · 84 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Yes | 45c | 51.11$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cdd…3a5bbacked Yes | 40c | 50.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84dc…9c02backed No | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | -3.9wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd2e3…da52backed Yes | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ec…e987backed Yes | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78f7…2c5dbacked No | 56c | 41.81$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9e…7293backed No | 59c | 38.75$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.89 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b13…8bc2backed Yes | 45c | 37.78$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Yes | 42c | 35.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.03 | 197 | 36%71 W · 126 L | +9.3wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1889…0714backed No | 56c | 34.09$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 98 | 55.1%54 W · 44 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3058…5412backed Yes | 44c | 34.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0391…9e5fbacked Yes | 45c | 27.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83c5…e193backed Yes | 43c | 24.42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb32b…522dbacked No | 57c | 21.92$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.43 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Fenerbahce win on 2025-09-24?this page
- Will Dinamo Zagreb vs. Fenerbahce end in a draw?No won
- Will Dinamo Zagreb win on 2025-09-24?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.