Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will Dinamo Zagreb vs. Fenerbahce end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfc161e989feff4d2077fef11698dd5fafc3d5f6e1d1801d6e81b9df871c86fac
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,412
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,405
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,412 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x040d…1a5ebacked Yes | 27c | 1,026$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.05 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 27cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Yes | 29c | 937.5$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.88 | 741 | 55.9%414 W · 327 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 70c | 640.67$449 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.28 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde44…cb51backed Yes | 34c | 564.37$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd267…9dc6backed No | 72c | 539.29$388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151 | 55 | 32.7%18 W · 37 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked No | 71c | 421.17$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.14 | 129 | 55.8%72 W · 57 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a2a…4945backed Yes | 28c | 357.14$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d24…a93fbacked No | 67c | 299$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.67 | 118 | 69.5%82 W · 36 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed No | 68c | 286.81$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.19 | 122 | 47.5%58 W · 64 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac43…4925backed Yes | 29c | 251.72$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 85 | 43.5%37 W · 48 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7272…7135backed Yes | 29c | 250.11$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.45 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +3.3wins | +0.21per pick | 36cpaid | +73.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb29f…1ab6backed Yes | 22c | 227.27$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf142…57e7backed No | 71c | 223.72$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.88 | 200 | 50%100 W · 100 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea8…1fbfbacked No | 73c | 213.88$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.66 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 75c | 187.32$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.26 | 245 | 57.6%141 W · 104 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e10…70f4backed No | 73c | 182.22$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.48 | 96 | 52.1%50 W · 46 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc81…0ababacked Yes | 28c | 178.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 75 | 21.3%16 W · 59 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c68…56dcbacked Yes | 29c | 174.79$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca8…2882backed Yes | 28c | 135.07$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.48 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdda3…d55fbacked Yes | 27c | 132.63$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.14 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x467e…c62dbacked Yes | 38c | 105.26$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf42a…8470backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 81 | 29.6%24 W · 57 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb7…04d8backed Yes | 28c | 89.29$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedb1…3fddbacked Yes | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 72c | 69.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.4 | 246 | 55.7%137 W · 109 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f1a…7c47backed Yes | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 84 | 53.6%45 W · 39 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd574…425dbacked Yes | 36c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -21%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked No | 72c | 35.71$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 122 | 69.7%85 W · 37 L | +14.5wins | +0.12per pick | 58cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed No | 72c | 30.71$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 237 | 57%135 W · 102 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8fc…ca96backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 74cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe8…0fedbacked No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.36 | 200 | 42%84 W · 116 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb32b…522dbacked No | 75c | 16.66$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.16 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Dinamo Zagreb vs. Fenerbahce end in a draw?this page
- Will Dinamo Zagreb win on 2025-09-24?Yes won
- Will Fenerbahce win on 2025-09-24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.