Tennis · resolved market
China Open: Mirra Andreeva vs Sonay Kartal
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xec4201fe85707dff493a457417e232a2571a6d0d20d278ced524ceced5e994f5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Kartalof Andreeva, Kartal
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,373
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,757
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,373 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2129…4222backed Kartal | 39c | 13,357$5,259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,097.95 | 652 | 42.8%279 W · 373 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3257…2f3bbacked Andreeva | 58c | 8,237$4,739 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,739.21 | 443 | 60%266 W · 177 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Kartal | 41c | 7,009$2,896 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,112.68 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95b8…47c9backed Andreeva | 61c | 6,000$3,656 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,656.03 | 284 | 43%122 W · 162 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Kartal | 36c | 2,625$933 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,691.34 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Kartal | 38c | 2,275$862 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,413.52 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Kartal | 20c | 1,462$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,170.71 | 149 | 49%73 W · 76 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x761a…d9babacked Andreeva | 52c | 1,451$754 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$753.77 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x555a…6ee2backed Andreeva | 80c | 1,352$1,082 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,081.87 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 70cpaid | -17%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Andreeva | 78c | 1,054$823 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$823.39 | 1,039 | 54.6%567 W · 472 L | +37.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…f76ebacked Andreeva | 56c | 1,000$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560 | 1,446 | 48.8%706 W · 740 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef5…39edbacked Kartal | 22c | 999.99$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$779.99 | 257 | 22.2%57 W · 200 L | -12.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb438…b113backed Andreeva | 77c | 934.17$718 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$717.97 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8406…0176backed Andreeva | 65c | 897$583 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$583.05 | 106 | 54.7%58 W · 48 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Andreeva | 49c | 799$393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.3 | 439 | 48.5%213 W · 226 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Andreeva | 55c | 798$443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$442.58 | 819 | 38.9%319 W · 500 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcfe…d420backed Andreeva | 58c | 645.65$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373.9 | 253 | 52.2%132 W · 121 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…ff0ebacked Andreeva | 50c | 600$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 591 | 51.6%305 W · 286 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Andreeva | 77c | 535.96$413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$412.69 | 69 | 30.4%21 W · 48 L | -9.8wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…a7babacked Kartal | 22c | 454.55$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.55 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31b5…6128backed Andreeva | 65c | 397$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.05 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb852…bfaebacked Kartal | 21c | 386.46$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.03 | 296 | 34.1%101 W · 195 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd9…f0d5backed Andreeva | 79c | 380.25$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 177 | 67.2%119 W · 58 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9354…6502backed Kartal | 43c | 373.71$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.01 | 755 | 47.8%361 W · 394 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…a70cbacked Kartal | 58c | 347.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.16 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | +4.1wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6466…4633backed Andreeva | 62c | 322.58$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 85 | 40%34 W · 51 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Andreeva | 73c | 300$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.9 | 629 | 52.1%328 W · 301 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4192…7f00backed Kartal | 50c | 300$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 50 | 30%15 W · 35 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Andreeva | 80c | 250.04$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 639 | 42.4%271 W · 368 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x868b…1eb0backed Kartal | 44c | 225.39$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.11 | 41 | 22%9 W · 32 L | -11.1wins | -0.27per pick | 49cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x09b6…f48dbacked Andreeva | 47c | 213.83$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 320 | 50%160 W · 160 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Kartal | 36c | 190$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.62 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Andreeva | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 731 | 47.9%350 W · 381 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf575…e0ebbacked Kartal | 35c | 148.69$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.65 | 204 | 31.9%65 W · 139 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61c1…0513backed Andreeva | 71c | 140.92$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,287 | 60.7%781 W · 506 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x051d…6980backed Kartal | 29c | 110$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.51 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Kartal | 20c | 100$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 1,489 | 32.6%486 W · 1,003 L | +22.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb78d…1d48backed Andreeva | 69c | 100$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 53 | 60.4%32 W · 21 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3a…68a9backed Andreeva | 75c | 99.61$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.71 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd99…f375backed Andreeva | 12c | 96.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 85 | 55.3%47 W · 38 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Kartal | 21c | 86.64$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.44 | 730 | 48.8%356 W · 374 L | -18.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2008…19dabacked Andreeva | 57c | 81.21$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.69 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65d8…946cbacked Andreeva | 80c | 72.65$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.12 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7753…73cebacked Andreeva | 79c | 71.41$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.41 | 236 | 70.8%167 W · 69 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3bb…e7a1backed Andreeva | 71c | 70.42$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x731b…bdcabacked Andreeva | 79c | 63.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5652…ff34backed Andreeva | 55c | 60$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.8 | 121 | 34.7%42 W · 79 L | -5.8wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf97…beb5backed Kartal | 49c | 56.36$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.48 | 102 | 37.3%38 W · 64 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36bf…2864backed Andreeva | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 444 | 23.9%106 W · 338 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16f8…bf0bbacked Andreeva | 58c | 49.26$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.57 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xacff…3872backed Andreeva | 56c | 44.82$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.25 | 109 | 48.6%53 W · 56 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd402…5a50backed Andreeva | 80c | 38.46$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.77 | 296 | 61.5%182 W · 114 L | +8.4wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b5…5414backed Andreeva | 67c | 37.32$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.02 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -4.1wins | -0.20per pick | 50cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xda47…95dcbacked Andreeva | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.14per pick | 68cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x140f…5022backed Andreeva | 66c | 30.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf17…3eeebacked Andreeva | 52c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -3.4wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfb25…0e5bbacked Andreeva | 57c | 27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.39 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10b3…84e5backed Andreeva | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.38per pick | 72cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2953…2ed5backed Andreeva | 78c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 348 | 51.1%178 W · 170 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c2f…66b2backed Andreeva | 79c | 15.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 64 | 70.3%45 W · 19 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.